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Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recap, Wednesday pick (9-15)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

September 15, 2021 04:42 AM
John_Means

Welcome to Day 3 of our new column, “Tuley’s Takes Today.” We hope you were around the first two days as we’ve had nothing but winners with the Raiders on Monday Night Football and the Giants on the run line on both Monday and Tuesday nights.

When I bet and posted my play on last night’s game, the Giants were -1.5 + 125 but were bet down during the course of the day and went off around even money or + 105. I sincerely hope that’s because all of you were joining us in on the fun.

If this column seems much shorter today, there’s two main reasons for that. 1) Tuesday is a relatively slow sports day until we get to the MLB playoffs in October and MACtion in November. 2) Tuesday is our big writing and production day for Point Spread Weekly, VSiN’s digital online magazine.

If you want more of my “takes,” check out PSW when it’s released later this morning as I go over the entire NFL Week 2 card. Then, as we go through the week, I’ll update my recommendations in this daily column on when to bet my plays depending on how the lines are moving (note: 80-90% of the time, my underdogs have better lines closer to gametime so we’re usually waiting for the public to bet the favorites higher and higher).

Tuesday’s betting recap

MLB (from Twitter @ViewFromVegas): Giants (-190) beat Padres 6-1 for 9th straight win (cha-ching for those with us again on the run line). Underdogs went 9-7 on the night with the biggest upset by the Tigers (+ 185 vs. Brewers). Favorites still lead 1,245-854 (59.3%) on the season with 51 games closing pick-’em. Overs went 8-6-2 Tuesday, cutting Unders' slim lead on the season down to 1,028-1,022-94 (50.1%).

Wednesday’s Takes

Orioles (+ 165) vs. Yankees: A lot of people in my position, nursing a three-game winning streak since starting this daily column, would go for a “safe” play to try to extend the streak. But I’m not like that. I’m looking for value every day and know I’m not going to have long streaks betting underdogs, but that’s how we roll. So, Wednesday's best value bet is the Orioles with Jerry Means on the mound. The Yankees lead the season series 10-7, but I know I’m ahead overall as I’ve hit some spot plays with the O’s as big dogs and feel they’re live on Wednesday with John Means (Orioles are 1-1 in his starts vs. the Yankees this year) on the mound against Nestor Cortes Jr. The Orioles beat the Yankees with Means back in April, and on Sept. 3 this was the starting pitching matchup and the Yankees only won 4-3, so I expect this to be competitive again at a decent price (updated in morning as it's between + 155 and + 165). Game time is at 7:05 p.m. ET/ 4:05 p.m. PT.

And we still have this left over from Tuesday’s column (both lines are still widely available, though you’re more likely to be laying heavier juice like -120 on both sides):

Washington -3/New York +3.5: I made these plays Monday night here in Vegas for the Thursday night Week 2 opener, and I see other jurisdictions with different shops offering these different numbers. I’m basically just risking the vig and hoping that Washington wins by exactly a field goal so I win one bet and push the other. If you like one side better than the other (I actually think Washington is the right side), you can weight my bets to give yourself a decision one way or the other.

 

Good luck today (and every day!).

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