Per usual, Tuesday was spent in the Tuley’s Takes home office writing my regular “Tuley’s Take” column for Point Spread Weekly (in which I updated my Super Bowl picks and props from last week) and helping proof the rest of the issue that is coming out on Wednesday morning.
I’m glad I was otherwise busy as I lost my two bets on the day with the Clippers + 7.5 at the Grizzlies (blowout loss of 135-109 that was never close) and Stanford + 7.5 vs. UCLA (much closer to covering it the margin was right around the spread in the final minute but UCLA won and covered 79-70). At least I was too busy to talk myself into some of the other bets I had considered, especially in the NBA where faves went 9-1 SU and ATS on the night.
As regular readers of mine here and on Twitter @ViewFromVegas, I grade the NBA betting results every night using my VFV Consensus Closing Lines. I have the faves as going 27-2 SU the last 4 days and 25-3-1 ATS (89.3 percent). You might have seen other networks and websites that have picked up on this trend and are reporting slightly different records. The biggest difference appears to be Sunday’s game involving the Hawks and Mavericks. I graded it as the Hawks closing as consensus 1.5-point road favorites here in Vegas, thus the Mavericks were the only NBA dog to win outright on Saturday and Sunday. I had faves at 13-1 SU while others were saying faves were a perfect 13-0 SU and that Hawks-Mavericks closed pick-’em. Still others said the Mavs were favored and thus faves were 14-0 SU.
Now, I know the Mavericks opened as short home favorites of between -2 and -2.5, but we’ve always graded our betting results against the consensus closing line because it’s the culmination of the oddsmakers’ opening line, the early bets, sharp bets, square bets and late bets. The closing line has had input from everyone, so it’s the most fair to grade against in my humble opinion. The other sites usually don’t explain how they grade their results. We don’t know if they’re using just one book’s line, don’t know if it’s their closing line or if they’re making an arbitrary call of what number most bets were accepted at, etc. Or maybe they just like promoting a perfect 13-0 SU record and that’s why they made the Hawks-Mavericks pick-’em. I try to be as honest and transparent as possible with my ATS records.
Anyway, let’s wrap up the rest of Tuesday’s betting action, including our daily update of the Super Bowl side and total, and then look for value on the Wednesday betting boards. In addition, I went ahead and made Bengals + 4.5 my official Super Bowl LVI pick in case the line dropped, and it did at a few books on Tuesday (see below). I’ll be adding the rest of my Super Bowl picks and props in these daily columns after Point Spread Weekly comes out (or check out “The Opening Lines” archive from Sunday night for more of my plays if you can’t wait).
NBA: Faves went 9-1 SU on Tuesday (27-2 SU the last 4 days) and 9-1 ATS (25-3-1 ATS, 89.3 percent, last 4 days). Tuesday’s lone upset was by Suns (+ 1.5, + 100 money line in 114-109 win at the 76ers). The only other dog to win during this run was the Mavericks (+ 1.5 at Hawks) on Sunday. Overs went 7-3.
CBB: Arkansas upset No. 1 Auburn 80-76 in OT as 1.5-point home underdog; No. 3 Purdue (-5) covered in 84-68 win vs. No. 13 Illinois; No. 14 Wisconsin ( 4) upset No. 17 Michigan State 70-62 despite being ranked higher; No. 24 UConn (-6.5) covered in 80-72 win vs. No. 18 Marquette.
NHL: Underdogs went 5-2 SU on Tuesday with upsets by the Senators (+ 200 vs. Hurricanes), Blue Jackets (+ 211 at Capitals), Jets (+ 135 vs. Wild), Penguins (+ 115 at Bruins) and Golden Knights (-105 at Oilers). Overs went 5-2.
Super Bowl odds update (10:45 p.m. PT Tuesday): Rams continue to be 4.5-point favorites vs. the Bengals at the majority of books in Las Vegas, but South Point and William Hill/Caesars have joined Treasure Island at Rams -4 as of late Tuesday. We’ve been hinting the past few days that there were some indications that the line could drop, and we saw it happen. The Over/Under is still a solid 48.5 in Vegas.
Xavier + 4 at Seton Hall: Xavier is just 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games and coming off a loss vs. DePaul, but the Musketeers are still the better team and shouldn’t be getting this many points even on the road. With its balanced scoring attack of Jack Nunge, Paul Scruggs, Colby Jones and Nate Johnson all averaging double figures (and Zach Freemantle at 9.9 ppg), I still have Xavier at -1 in this matchup, so gimme the points.
NBA 3-team ML parlay with Raptors -450/Timberwolves -400/Lakers -305: Let’s call this the “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” parlay. It pays right around even money for these 3 faves to just win outright against the Thunder/Kings/Blazers, respectively.
Parlay Blackhawks-Oilers First-Period Over 1.5 -170/Golden Knights-Flames First-Period Over 1.5 -145: These are the two highest game totals on the night with 1P Over still at 1.5, so we’re looking for both to get off to at least 2 goals in the opening period with the parlay paying around + 160.
Super Bowl: Bengals + 4.5. We recommended grabbing the 4.5 the other day in case the line dropped, and as we see above, the South Point and William Hill/Caesars here in Vegas did just that on Tuesday. Now, it’s still possible that as we get closer to gameday that the money does come in on the favored Rams – especially here in Vegas from our California neighbors driving over for our parties and betting action, but it’s no guarantee. We prefer to lock in our Bengals + 4.5 wager now and concentrate on the overflowing menus of prop bets.
Good luck today (and every day!).