Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recap, updated MLB betting stats, Wednesday pick 7/20

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Tuesday was spent, per usual, working on the original version of this column for Point Spread Weekly, as I discussed how I interpret the MLB betting stats that I post here daily, plus I gave updates on the World Series of Poker and the Vegas football contest scene.

I’m still battling a sore throat (it got worse Tuesday, but again tested negative for COVID), but I tried to get out of the house to pick up shock for our pool. Did you know there’s a shock shortage out there? This is not getting the media coverage that the baby formula shortage received. Of course, my kids call this a “first-world problem,” but it’s ridiculous. Costco was sold out, as was our local grocery store. Luckily, Leslie’s had just received a delivery so I bought a full box (about $30 more than it would have cost at Costco).

I was hoping that running around and doing some errands would make me feel better and more productive, but all it did was drain me in the 109-degree heat.

Finally, after a long day, we had a sports bet to sweat with the MLB All-Star Game. Those going with the long-running trends with the American League and the Under both won. Unfortunately, I lost as I chose to fade the Under run with my Best Bet on the Over. When I wrote yesterday’s column, the Over was 8 runs at plus-money with some books at Over 7.5 -115. During the course of Tuesday, most bettors jumped on the Under trend and we got Over 7.5 even money.

We actually felt great about the contrarian bet as the National League scored 2 runs in the bottom of the 1st inning, and then the American League answered with 3 runs in the top of the fourth, However, the bullpens were dominated and no more runs were scored in the last 5.5 innings as the AL held on to win 3-2.

Per usual, here’s my recap from Twitter and then we’ll try to get back on the winning track on Wednesday with another light sports betting menu before MLB returns on Thursday.

Tuesday’s recap

MLB: American League beat National League 3-2 Tuesday night in MLB All-Star Game for 9th straight win and 21-4 in the last 25 summer classics. The AL closed as a consensus even-money underdog (+ 100). The game stayed Under the betting total of 7.5 runs, improving the Under to 13-2-1 in the last 16 All-Star Games.

ICYMI: MLB faves are 816-544 SU (60 percent) at the All-Star Break with 23 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so they’re still ahead of the pace but the gap has been narrowing as it was closer to 61-62 percent for a good portion of the early season). Home teams lead just 720-663 (52.1 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 686-631-64 (52.1 percent).

Wednesday’s Take

Seattle Storm + 3 at Chicago Sky: I don’t often bet the WNBA, but I’ve followed it a little more closely during my time off so I can try and find some live underdogs, and for days like Wednesday with not much else going on. Chicago has the WNBA’s best record at 19-6 and are on a four-game winning streak, so they’re a tough team to fade. However, Seattle is also on a four-game winning streak and no slouch. In fact, Seattle won the earlier meeting between these two teams on May 18 when the Storm was 1-3 entering the game and not playing well, but came away with a 74-71 victory. In that game, Seattle’s Breanna Stewart (the WNBA’s leading scorer at 21 points per game) was held to just 13 points, so we expect a better performance from her. The Storm have also added Tina Charles (14.3 points, 6.5 rebounds) since that previous meeting and they are 6-1 with her. FYI: this game has an early tip-off of noon ET/11 a.m. CT in Chicago/9 a.m. PT here in Vegas.

Good luck today (and every day!).


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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.