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Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recap, updated betting stats, Wednesday best bets 5/4

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 4, 2022 04:31 AM
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Tuesday, per usual, was spent writing the original version of this column for Point Spread Weekly (VSiN’s digital magazine) that comes out Wednesday. And then I took another long nap before getting up for a full night of sports betting action.

And oh what a night it was. We certainly hope our readers have stuck with us through our up-and-down results the past week as it all came together on Tuesday, led by the Grizzlies beating the Warriors in a game that admittedly could have gone either way. After a narrow loss on the Mavericks on Monday, I’m glad we stuck with the NBA as we improved our record to 49-30-1 ATS (62 percent) the past 80 days as we’re trying to stay above 60 percent with our top play of the day.

We were also proud of the fact we invoked our “dog-or-pass” philosophy in not betting the underdog Bucks against the Celtics even though we won on them in Game 1 on Sunday (again, i passed on the game, but I’m sure some readers played the Celtics -4 in a zig-zag role).

But we didn’t just make money with the NBA on Tuesday.

In the NHL playoffs, we cashed in big with our 2 underdog plays on the night as we had the Capitals + 210 against the Panthers (we gave it out here yesterday at + 190, but the public kept betting the Panthers higher! We also hit with the Penguins + 125 at the Rangers as we nailed the 2 winning dogs in the NHL on Tuesday night while avoiding the 2 losing dogs in the other games.

In MLB, we also scored with the Yankees + 120 vs. the Blue Jays as we rode their winning streak, which is now at 11 games. We did lose on the Mariners + 140 at the Astros, but showed a profit overall with our MLB plays thanks to playing the dogs at plus-money, and also won with our recommended play on the Brewers -1.5 -120 (actually a play against the lowly Reds) as that cashed in a 6-3 victory.

All in all, that’s a heckuva day as we were 4-1 with dogs, plus the chalky run line. We can’t imagine we’ll find any complaints from readers in our email inbox or our DMs.

Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s action and then try to keep our winning ways going on Wednesday.

Tuesday’s recaps

NBA: Grizzlies beat the Warriors 106-101 as 2-point home underdogs late Tuesday to even their 2nd-round series at 1-1 (game stayed Under betting total of 227.5 points). Earlier, the Celtics beat the Bucks 109-86 as 4-point home favorites to also even their series at 1-1 (stayed Under 216). Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU and ATS on the night. Home teams swept 2-0 SU and ATS while Unders went 2-0.

More NBA: Faves are 4-2 SU this round but 3-3 ATS, and now are 34-15 SU and 28-21 ATS (57.1 percent) overall. Home teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this round, lead 28-21 SU but road teams lead 26-23 ATS. The zig-zag (aka “loser of the last”) started 2-0 ATS (with the Celtics and Grizzlies in that role after losing their Game 1s straight-up) this round and improved to 18-19 ATS overall. Unders lead 4-2 this round and 31-18 (63.3 percent) overall.

NHL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 for the 2nd straight night of 1st-round series openers. The upsets were by the Capitals (+ 210 in 4-2 win at Panthers) and Penguins (+ 125 in 4-3 triple-OT win at Rangers). Over/Unders split 2-2. Faves/dogs (and home/road teams) are 4-4 after Game 1s while O/U also at 4-4.

MLB: Faves went 6-5 Tuesday with 3 games closing pick-’em (both games of the Mets' doubleheader sweep of the Braves, plus Cardinals-Royals). The upsets were by the Diamondbacks (+ 177 at Marlins), Rangers (+ 130 at Phillies), Nationals (+ 129 at Rockies), Yankees (+ 119 at Blue Jays) and Red Sox (+ 115 vs. Angels). Home/road teams split 7-7. Overs led 9-5.

More MLB: Faves went just 6-5 Monday with 3 PKs, but still lead 218-129 SU (62.8 percent) on the season w/ 7 PKs (faves usually win closer to 59 percent SU). Home teams went just 7-7, but still lead 183-171 on season. Overs went 9-5 Tuesday to cut even more into Unders' lead at 190-149-15 (56 percent) after Unders were over 60 percent not too long ago.

Wednesday’s Takes

Mavericks + 6 at Suns: We’re sticking with the NBA for our top play of the day as the Mavericks are in the zig-zag role after losing Game 1 (and it was a coin-flip as far as the spread was concerned in the Suns’ 7-point win thanks to going 18-for-18 from the free-throw line. Now, we know good teams are supposed to make their FTs in the clutch, but we expect the Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson to step up and keep the Mavs even closer and possibly pull out the upset to even the series heading to Games 3 and 4 in Dallas.

NHL dogs: We’re encouraged by the fact that faves/dogs have split 2-2 each of the first two nights of the Stanley Cup playoffs. As I wrote for Point Spread Weekly, “We might have missed our chance on the Blues and Kings, but we’ll probably take the Bruins + 105 at the Hurricanes and the Lightning + 105 at the Maple Leafs in their Game 2s on Wednesday night, especially the two-time defending champion Lightning as they won’t want to fall behind 2-0. I would expect the Wild and Oilers to bounce back and even their series at home.” Note: the Lightning are up to + 115 at some books as of early Wednesday, so shop around as always.

Cubs + 130 vs. White Sox: I was close to passing on MLB dogs on Wednesday as most are priced right and I don’t see any of them as very live. But there is this play, which I’m trying to make sure it’s not a “homer” play. As most readers know, I’m a diehard Cubs fan from my youth and credit them with helping me to learn not to bet with your heart. But I do believe this line is too high on the White Sox even though they won the series opener 3-1 on Tuesday. Give me Kyle Hendricks vs. Luis Giolito at this price. The only other MLB play I’m considering is to fade the lowly Reds again with the Brewers -1.5 -125 again on the run line.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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