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Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recap, updated betting stats, Wednesday best bets 5/11

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 11, 2022 05:52 AM
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Tuesday was spent, per usual writing the regular weekly version of this column for VSiN’s digital magazine Point Spread Weekly, though I was able to meet my friend Roger Dorn (no, not the third baseman in “Major League”) for dinner at Pizza Rock downtown and also caught up with my boss Bill Adee at Circa.

The betting didn’t go as well as I lost my Best Bet of the day on the Mavericks + 6 (that was what we gave out in Monday’s column, though we were able to get + 7 on Monday afternoon and felt great about it) but it wasn’t even close. That dropped our record to 51-35-1 ATS (59.3 percent) with our top play of the day the past 87 days (that’s 12-plus weeks since starting our run with the Bengals + 4.5 on Super Sunday). I went against the zig-zag theory as the Suns were in that role, and paid the price.

When we lose our top play, we usually do well enough with our other plays to cut our losses and sometimes even squeak a win on the day, but that wasn’t the case this Tuesday as we lost our 3 MLB picks as the A’s, Pirates and Guardians all coming up short and went 2-2 with our NHL chalk parlay, thus another loser.

Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’’s betting results as we’re glad to put that behind us, and then try to get back on the winning track on Wednesday.

Tuesday’s recaps

NBA: Suns (-7) routed Mavericks 110-80 late Tuesday to take 3-2 lead in their 2nd-round series as the game stayed Under the betting total of 215.5 points. Earlier, the Heat (-3) routed the 76ers 120-85 to also take a 3-2 lead (and the game also stayed Under 208). Faves/home/zig-zag all went 2-0 SU and ATS on the night. Unders also went 2-0.

More NBA: Faves are 14-4 SU this round but only 11-7 ATS, and they’re 44-17 SU and 37-24 ATS (60.7 percent) overall. Home teams are 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS this round, and they lead 39-22 SU but just 32-29 ATS. The zig-zag went 2-0 ATS on Tuesday as the Heat and Suns both covered), it’s now 9-5 ATS in the round and took a 25-24 ATS lead overall. Unders improved to 11-7 in this round, 38-23 (62.3 percent) overall.

NHL: Kings (+ 195) upset the Oilers 5-4 in OT late Tuesday to take a 3-2 lead in their 1st-round series. The Blues (+ 140) also upset the Wild 5-2 for a 3-2 lead. The Hurricanes (-145 in 5-1 win vs. Bruins) and Maple Leafs (-135 in 4-3 win vs. Lightning) won as favorite and also took 3-2 leads. Overs went 3-0-1 on the night with the push in the Bruins-Hurricanes (6) game.

More NHL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 Tuesday, and faves lead just 20-16 SU so far in the playoffs. Home teams (higher-seeded teams in Game 5s) also split 2-2 and home teams lead 21-15. The zig-zag (which isn’t normally associated with the hockey playoffs) also split 2-2, but is still 17-11 overall. Overs lead 23-12-1 (15-4-1 the last 5 days after 8-8 start).

MLB: Faves went 9-7 Tuesday with the most notable upset by the Angels (short -103 dog in 12-0 rout vs. the Rays with Reid Detmers' no-hitter). The biggest upsets were by the Orioles ( 146 in 5-3 win at Cards), A's (+ 132 in 4-1 Game 2 win at the Tigers) and the Red Sox (+ 129 in 9-4 win at Braves). Road teams went 9-7. Overs 10-6.

More MLB: Faves lead 274-166 SU (62.3 percent) on the season with 10 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win closer to 59 percent SU, so faves still ahead of that pace). Home teams dipped to 235-215. Unders dropped to 235-195-20 (54.7 percent) after being 60 percent just 2 weeks ago.

Wednesday’s Takes

Grizzlies + 4 vs. Warriors: As we wrote in Point Spread Weekly (which actually comes out later this morning), we’re continuing to be selective with the zig-zag theory. While unsuccessfully trying to fade it on Tuesday, we’re back on it with the Grizzlies and the Bucks + 5.5 at the Celtics. A lot of people are jumping off the Memphis bandwagon with Ja Morant announced to be out for the season, but we’re still counting on the rest of the Grizzlies to step up like they have all season. They lost Game 4 at Golden State on Monday night, falling to 20-6 SU without Morant this season, but still covered for us as 10-point road dogs. We think they can step up even better at home on Wednesday night to send this series back to California, and there’s even a chance to get another cover in a loss if they take it down to the final whistle. As for the Bucks, I debated making them my Best Bet as their series with the Celtics has been zig-zag goal with each team alternating wins and this is the Bucks’ turn, though I’m just taking the points instead of on the money line.

Capitals + 190 at Panthers: This is another play that I already picked in Point Spread Weekly (and the story is already on the VSiN.com website) as the Capitals have been able to slow down the President’s Trophy-winning Panthers as this series is tied at 2-2. This is pivotal Game 5 in Florida, but I’m taking the Capitals as a live dog. More conservative bettors might opt for the + 1.5 -130 on the puck line. I’m passing on the other two dogs, the Penguins and the Stars.

MLB: I’m also passing on baseball on Wednesday as these series haven’t been good to me. I’m waiting for the Astros (who are on an 8-game winning streak) to lose so we can bet against them with an anti-swagger play, plus also eyeing the Blue Jays at Rays, Padres at Braves, Giants at Cardinals and maybe even the Phillies at Dodgers in their weekend series.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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