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Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recap, updated betting stats, Wednesday best bets 4/27

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Tuesday was spent, as usual, in the Tuley’s Takes home office writing the original version of this column day for Point Spread Weekly. We then had an exciting night of sports betting action with 3 NBA playoff games and full cards in MLB and NHL.

We lost our Best Best of the day on the Reds + 1.5 vs. the Padres in a swagger spot after they snapped an 11-game losing streak in their previous game. They actually led 1-0 after the second inning and we thought we were on the way. However, the Padres tied it 1-1 in the third and then exploded for 8 runs in the top of the 4th inning for a 9-1 lead. The Reds actually battled to pull within 9-5 after 5 innings to give us hope, but lost 9-6 to drop our record to 47-25-1 ATS (65.3 percent) with our top play of the day the past 73 days (10-plus weeks).

We hit our second-best bet of the day on the Bruins + 105 vs. the Panthers as they won 4-2. You have no idea how much time I spent deciding whether to make the Reds my top pick of the day or the Bruins. I wanted to go with the Bruins, but I think I opted for the Reds because I had talked about it more on “The Lookahead” on Sunday night. Oh, well, we move on.

We also lost as the 6 NHL 1P Over teams in action on Tuesday only went 2-4, but we’re glad we recommended only risking 1 unit overall using a round-robin.

Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s betting action and then try to get back on the winning track on Wednesday.

 

Tuesday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 3-0 SU, but just 1-2 ATS as only the Suns (-6.5) covered in their 112-97 win vs. Pelicans to take a 3-2 series lead. The Heat (-4.5) didn't cover in a 97-94 win to clinch their series 4-1 vs. Hawks and the Grizzlies (-7) didn't cover in a 111-109 win to take a 3-2 lead on the Timberwolves. Unders swept 3-0 on the night.

More NBA: Faves lead 24-13 SU, but just 19-18 ATS (51.4 percent) in 1st round. Home teams (also 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS on the day as home teams were favored in all 3 games) lead 22-15 SU, but road teams lead 20-17 ATS (54.1 percent). The zig-zag, which went 2-1 ATS with covers by the Hawks and Suns while the non-cover was by the Grizzlies, now leads 15-14 ATS. Unders lead 23-14 (62.2 percent).

MLB: Faves went 12-3 on Tuesday with the only upsets by the Diamondbacks (+ 195 in 5-3 home win vs. the Dodgers), Royals (+ 140 in 6-0 shutout at the White Sox, who lost their 8th straight game) and Mariners (+ 118 in 8-4 win at Rays). Home teams went 8-7. Overs went 8-7.

More MLB: Faves went 12-3 on the day to improve to 159-98 SU (61.9 percent) on the young season with 2 games closing pick-'em. Home teams went 8-7 on Tuesday and lead 136-123 over road teams, which led 65-63 just 10 days ago. Overs went 8-7 to drop Unders below 60 percent at 145-100-14 (59.2 percent).

NHL: Faves/dogs split 6-6 with the Golden Knights-Stars closing pick-’em. The upsets were by Coyotes (+ 425 at Wild to snap a 10-game losing streak), Islanders (+ 155 at Capitals), Ducks (+ 130 at Sharks), Oilers (+ 120 at Penguins), Hurricanes (+ 105 at Rangers) and Bruins (+ 100 vs. Panthers). Overs went 7-6.

Wednesday’s Takes

Nuggets + 9 at the Warriors: The Warriors are in a zig-zag role (as “loser of the last”), but they’re also an anti-swagger play as they had an 8-game winning streak snapped on Sunday. We usually don’t see these plays carry over into the playoffs, but while everyone else is expecting the Warriors to close out the series at home after dropping Game 4 on the road, I’m counting on the Nuggets at least keeping this close. I saw this line drop to 8.5 at a lot of books on Monday, but the public has been pushing the line back up as we’re seeing a few 9.5 as of early Wednesday morning. If you’re with us, grab the best line you can. I’m also making a smaller play on the Bulls + 12 vs. the Bucks, though I’m not as confident in this play with health concerns from Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso.

Coyotes + 2.5 -120 (BetMGM) or + 1.5 + 155 at Stars: Get ready to plug your nose. Just like betting the MLB’s Reds in the swagger role yesterday, we’re betting one of the NHL’s worst teams in the Coyotes in the swagger role as they just snapped an 11-game losing streak with a 5-3 win over the Wild on Tuesday. They now face the Stars, who pretty much buried the Golden Knights in the wild-card race and are on the brink of making the playoffs. With that in mind, I’m not willing to take the full money line around + 400 (though they were + 425 vs. the Wild) but as you can see there’s some decent alternate puck lines available.

MLB underdogs: The Reds’ loss ended a four-day run of being profitable with our MLB dog plays. Wednesday’s live dogs look to be the Cardinals + 105 vs. the Mets and Royals + 165 at White Sox.

NHL 1P Overs: I’m finally putting these bets on ice as the regular season is drawing to a close. It was a roller-coaster ride, but I hope most readers showed an overall profit with these plays the past couple of months, or lost just a little and had a lot of fun.

USFL Unders: In Point Spread Weekly, I wrote that I’m going with the 4 USFL Unders again this weekend as we don’t think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough. Based on how the market bet down all 4 totals last week, we recommend betting these ASAP so that’s why I’m posting these now: Bandits-Gamblers Under 39, Stallions-Breakers Under 44.5, Maulers-Panthers Under 38.5 and Generals-Stars Under 40.5.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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