Tuesday was a pretty full day as we spent the early part of it writing my regular Tuley’s Takes column for Point Spread Weekly, which should be in VSiN subscribers’ inbox later Wednesday morning for the 250th straight week.
Yep, PSW has been coming out like clockwork each week the past 4 years and 9 months since September 2017. I’ve been proud to be part of it for about 240 of those issues, give or take.
That was the high point of the day (along with these awesome BBQ chicken wings I made in my air-fryer). Unfortunately, our bets didn’t turn out as well as we lost our top play of the day on the Rangers + 150 at the Lightning and also went 1-3 with our MLB underdogs.
We thought we were going to come out with at least a split and a profit when the Cardinals (+ 130) took a 2-1 lead on the Rays as they forced extra innings and took a 2-1 lead in the top of the 10th inning. However, we lost that as the Rays won 4-2 on a walk-off homer off the “fair pole” in the bottom half of the 10th and also lost on the Mets and Pirates while only winning with the White Sox + 118 vs. the Dodgers.
Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s betting results and try to get back on the winning track on Wednesday.
Lightning beat Rangers 4-1 to even the NHL Eastern Conference Finals at 2-2. The Lightning closed as a -181 home favorite as home teams have won the first 4 games of the series. The game stayed Under the betting total of 5.5 goals.
Faves improved to 6-2 in the conference finals round and now lead 53-28 overall. Home teams improved to 6-2 this round and 50-31 overall. Unders improved to 5-3 in this round (3-1 in this series), while Overs still lead 43-36-2 (54.4 percent) overall.
Faves went 11-5 on Tuesday with upsets by the Rockies (+ 215 in 5-3 win at Giants), Rangers (+ 112 in 6-3 Game 2 win at Guardians), White Sox (+ 114 in 4-0 win vs. Dodgers), Phillies (+ 100 in 3-2 win at Brewers and Orioles (-103 in 9-3 win vs. Cubs). Home teams went 9-7. Over/Unders split 7-7-2 with pushes in Rangers-Guardians Game 2 with a betting total of 9 runs and Rockies-Giants with a total of 8.
Faves are 494-319 SU (60.8 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 425-405 (51.2 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 409-378-41 (52 percent).
No games since Sunday, but we want to provide the updated betting starts so far in the playoffs: Favorites/underdogs are 1-1 SU and ATS in the Finals. Faves lead 55-28 SU and 48-35 ATS (57.8 percent) overall. Home/road teams are also 1-1 SU and ATS in Finals while home teams lead 50-33 SU but just 43-40 ATS (51.8 percent) overall. The zig-zig started the Finals at 1-0 ATS with the Warriors’ win in Game 2 (the Celtics are in the role after losing that game) and is 38-30 ATS (55.9 percent) overall. Over/Unders are 1-1 in Finals while Unders lead 49-34 (59 percent) overall.
Warriors-Celtics Under 212.5:
We already written the past few days (and also in Point Spread Weekly) that we feel the Celtics -3.5 is the right side in Wednesday’s Game 3 with the Celtics in the zig-zag role, but we keep hearing the little angel on our shoulder whispering “dog-or-pass.” Supporting that play (even if you don’t believe in the zig-zag, per se, is the fact the Celtics are 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS off a loss. We’ve also seen where only 7 games this postseason have had the point spread come into play, so I’m not going to try to talk anyone out of laying the 3.5 even if I’m unwilling to do it myself. Instead, I’ll just consider our series bet on the Celtics as being in lieu of a side bet (and I’m even less thrilled with laying -160 on the money line) and turn our attention to the Under as our Best Bet of the day. Game 1 went Over and Game 2 stayed Under. We feel Game 1 was more of the fluke with the Celtics, including Al Horford. going wild in the fourth quarter and hitting seven straight 3-pointers at one point. We expect Game 3 to play out more like Game 2, so the Under is the play.
Let’s try this again as we hope for at least a 2-2 split with the Royals/Singer + 130 vs. Blue Jays, Orioles + 120 vs. Cubs/Stroman, White Sox/Cueto + 160 vs. the Dodgers and Mets/Bassitt + 108 at Padres. Note: I'm starting a bit of shorthand here with my MLB picks as I'm including the pitcher that I'm basing most of the reason for making the play, so if I put the pitcher with the underdog, I'm liking the play because of them. Conversely, if I put the pitcher with the favorite, I'm fading them. If I mention both, that would make it a stronger play. I would also be more likely to "list" these pitchers to make sure they start for the bet to be action.
Good luck today (and every day!).