Tuesday was another busy day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we wrote our regular “Tuley’s Takes” column for Point Spread Weekly and helped edit the edition that will be coming out later Wednesday morning.
The day led up to the opening game of the NHL’s Eastern Conference Finals between the Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers and my Best Best on Under 6.5 goals. I was fading the vast majority of bettors that were on the Over (in fact, the betting total closed at 7 at the majority of Las Vegas as you’ll see in the recaps below), but it was clear I was on the wrong side as the Oilers scored just after 5 minutes into the game and the Avalanche answered with a goal 36 seconds later. By the end of the first period, the Avalanche already led 3-2 and the scoring went Over even the highest totals of 7 by 4:38 into the second period with the Avalanche ahead 5-3 on the way to an 8-6 victory.
The loss snapped our four-day winning streak over the Memorial Day weekend, but at least we split our two MLB underdog plays to cut our losses as we were able to get the Giants + 140 at the Phillies and the Padres + 110 at the Cardinals. The Giants won 7-4 in extra innings and the Padres lost 3-2 in extra innings, so we nearly swept our MLB plays (though a pessimist would say we were nearly swept).
Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s betting results and try to get back on the winning track on hump day.
Avalanche held off Oilers 8-6 Tuesday night in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The ViewFromVegas is the Avs won as -190 home favorites and also covered the -1.5 puck line at + 125. The game flew Over the betting total of 7 goals (opened Over/Under 6.5 at most books).
Faves start the conference finals round 1-0 and lead 48-26 overall. Home teams also start this round 1-0 and lead 45-29 overall. Overs start this round 1-0 and lead 41-31-2 (56.9 percent) overall, though Unders led 13-9 in the 2nd round.
Faves went 9-6 with the biggest upset for the 2nd night in row by the Pirates (+ 290 in 5-3 win at Dodgers). Other upsets by the Diamondbacks (+ 146 in 8-7, 10-inning win vs. Braves), Giants (+ 135 in 7-4, 11-inning win at Phillies), Reds (+ 132 in 2-1 win at Red Sox), Tigers (+ 123 in 4-0 Game 2 win vs. Twins) and Cubs (+ 115 in 8-7 win vs. Brewers). Home teams went 9-6 while Overs also led 9-6.
Faves lead 436-286 SU (60.4 percent) on the season with 14 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 379-357 (51.5 percent, usually closer to 54 percent). Unders dipped to 368-330-38 (52.7 percent), further down from 60 percent just over a month ago.
Rangers + 105 vs. Lightning:
I already went on record as being on the Rangers + 160 in the series and + 105 in Game 1 in Point Spread Weekly (column already posted on VSiN.com). I know the Lightning are the two-time defending champions and it seems everyone is jumping on the bandwagon, but we’re on the Rangers as they’re underdogs despite having home-ice advantage.
As we also mentioned in PSW, we’re waiting for our next swagger/anti-swagger plays with the Blue Jays on a 6-game winning streak and Angels on a 6-game losing streak, but the dogs we like on Wednesday are the White Sox/Michael Kopech + 115 at the Blue Jays/Hyun Ryu and the Reds/Hunter Greene + 175 at the Red Sox/Garrett Whitlock.
Celtics + 3.5 at Warriors (Thursday):
We might as well post this play here as we also gave this out in PSW, as well as on “The Lookahead” show on Sunday night, so we’re pot-committed. And we're also on the Celtics + 145 to win the series.
Good luck today (and every day!).