Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recap, Contest Corner, Wednesday best bets 5/18

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Tuesday was a very active day in the Tuley’s Takes as we started early by posting this daily version of this column early in the morning, then staying up to watch Derek Stevens and Mike Palm announce the guarantee and rule changes for the Circa Sports Million and Circa Survivor football contests on VSiN’s “Follow the Money,” and then writing the weekly version of this column for Point Spread Weekly.

At least it was a productive day professionally as my bets didn’t work as well. We lost our Best Bet on the Celtics + 2 at Heat, though it closed + 4.5 at most books and we got + 5. We felt really good when the Celtics jumped out to a 7-0 lead and won both the first and second quarters, but the Heat won the third quarter 39-14 to take control of the game and went on to cover all numbers in a 118-107 win.

We also felt similarly confident about our bet on the Blues + 195 at the Avalanche as the Blues grabbed a 1-0 lead and goalie Jordan Binnington was “standing on his head” despite it looking like the Avalanche was on a constant power play. Alas, we lost that bet, too, as the Avalanche prevailed 3-2 in OT.

We’ve had a great run since the Super Bowl, but we say all the time that no one can keep a high sports betting win percentage going forever and we’re going through the inevitable slump.

Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s betting results, give our Contest Corner update on the Circa football contests and try to get back on the winning track on Wednesday.

Tuesday’s recaps

NBA: Heat pulled away in 2nd half to beat the Celtics 118-107 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals after closing as a 4.5-point home favorite (the game flew Over the betting total of 203 points). Faves are 47-23 SU and 40-30 ATS (57.1 percent) overall in the playoffs. Home teams lead 44-26 SU but just 37-33 ATS. Unders dipped to 43-27 (61.4 percent) overall.

NHL: Avalanche (-220 home favorite) outlasted the Blues 3-2 in OT late Tuesday in Game 1 of their 2nd-round series (the game stayed Under the betting total of 6.5 goals). Earlier, Lightning (+ 140 road dog) upset the Panthers 4-1 in Game 1 of their series (stayed Under 6.5). Unders swept 2-0.

More NHL: Faves went 1-1 on Tuesday night (though 0-2 on -1.5 puck line) but still lead 34-19 overall in playoffs (though below .500 at 24-29 on -1.5 puck line). Home teams also went 1-1 and lead 33-20 overall. Overs dipped to 31-20-2 (60.8 percent) overall with Unders going 2-0 to start the 2nd round.

MLB: Faves went 9-6 Tuesday with a whopping 3 games closing pick-'em (Cardinals-Mets Game 1, White Sox-Royals and Twins-A’s). The biggest upset was by the Reds (+ 140 in 5-4 win at Guardians) with no others above + 120. Home teams went 10-8. Unders went 9-8-1 with the push in the A's 5-2 win vs. the Twins with a betting total of 7 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 325-208 SU (61 percent) on the season with 14 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 281-266 (51.4 percent, usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 278-241-27 (53.6 percent), down from being at 60 percent just 3 weeks ago.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports is guaranteeing $12 million for its two popular NFL handicapping contests: $6 million guaranteed for Circa Sports Million (up from $4M last year) and $6 million again for CircaSurvivor. There is a $1,000 entry fee for each (3 maximum for CSM, guaranteed $1 million 1st-place prize and now pays Top 100 plus $1.2 million in quarterly prizes; 6 maximum for Survivor). Registration started at noon PT on Tuesday.

The $6 million Circa Survivor is 20 weeks, including Thanksgiving & Christmas "weeks.” The maximum is 6 entries per person heading into Sunday’s Week 1 games, though there is a re-buy option allowed if you have any entries eliminated on the opening Thursday Night Football game between the Rams and the Bills. This year’s $1 million bonus will be split by anyone who goes 20-0 and doesn’t use last year’s Super Bowl participants, the Rams and the Bengals, in any week.

I also expanded on these contests in Point Spread Weekly, with that column already posted on our website HERE.

Wednesday’s Takes

Mavericks + 5.5 at Warriors: We hope followers jumped in with us on VSiN’s “The Lookahead” show on Sunday night or in Monday’s column as the line is mostly down to 5, but we trust Luka Doncic and his band of merry Mavericks to be right in every game of this series starting with Game 1. If Steph Curry and the Warriors shoot out the lights on a given night, so be it, but I’m counting on the Mavs at least winning this series ATS.

NHL dogs: We only posted the Blues as a play here yesterday, but bet both dogs and nearly had a sweep. We’ll come back with smaller plays on both dogs in Wednesday’s 2nd-round openers with the Rangers + 145 at the Hurricanes and Oilers + 140 at the Flames.

MLB dogs: I passed on baseball on Monday and mostly glad I did as faves went 9-6, but I’m feeling better with Wednesday’s prospects on the Braves + 130 at the Brewers, Padres + 140 at the Phillies.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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