Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recap, Contest Corner, 2 best bets today (12/22)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 22, 2021 02:34 AM

We really enjoyed having two NFL games and two college bowl games on Tuesday. We could get used to that in the Tuley’s Takes office as it was even better than Tuesday in November when we had MACtion.

The results weren’t as good as Monday’s expanded schedule, but we did win our best bet of the day on San Diego State, which we originally picked in the VSiN College Bowl Betting Guide at + 2.5 as we felt the Aztecs should have been favored over UTSA, but then the Aztecs closed as 3-point favorites and covered all numbers in their 38-24 win. We also improved to 9-1 ATS on the VSiN CFB Consensus page in last week’s Point Spread Weekly as we also tabbed Wyoming as the right side in addition to San Diego State.

We lost our posted pick on the Washington Football team at %plusssign% 5 and + 6, but we hope readers heeded the advice we repeat all the time to shop for the best number as the Football Team closed at + 10 at most books in Vegas and elsewhere. We were disappointed to not get the win after Washington jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but it helped to turn a potential loss into a push vs. the closing number.

I have two plays for Wednesday, but let’s first recap all of Tuesday's betting action across the major sports and also update Contest Corner with the leaders of the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest as those contests are in the homestretch with just 3 weeks to go.

Tuesday’s recaps

NFL: Eagles (-10) beat the Washington Football Team 27-17 (pushed on closing line) and Rams (-7) beat Seahawks 20-10 (covering on late FG) to finally wrap up NFL Week 15 on Tuesday night. Faves (both at home) were 2-0 SU on Tuesday and 1-0-1 ATS vs. closing lines while Over/Unders split 1-1. Faves went 12-4 SU and 8-7-1 ATS in Week 15. Home/road teams split 8-8 SU but home teams led 8-7-1. Unders led 11-5. 

More NFL: Faves are 136-84-1 SU on the season with 3 games closing pick-'em, but dogs still lead 116-103-2 ATS (53 percent). Road teams are 113-107-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games and also lead 123-96-2 ATS (56.2 percent). Unders improved to 124-98-2 (55.9 percent) while primetime Unders lead 25-20-1.

CFB: San Diego State beat No. 24 Texas-San Antonio 38-24 Tuesday night but it was NOT an upset as the Aztecs closed as 3-point favorites (though UTSA opened as a short fave and were favored in most contests). Earlier Tuesday, Wyoming (-3) covered in a 52-38 win vs. Kent State. Faves went 2-0 SU and ATS on Tuesday while Overs were also 2-0. Faves improved to 7-4 SU so far in bowls with 1 game closing pick-'em (Western Kentucky-Appalachian State in the Boca Raton Bowl), but underdogs still lead 6-5 ATS though faves are on a 4-0 ATS run going back to Saturday night's New Orleans Bowl. Overs improved to 9-3.

NBA: Faves/dogs split 2-2 SU with Blazers-Pelicans closing pick-'em in Pelicans' 111-97 win. The upsets were by the Heat (+ 2 in 125-96 rout vs. Pacers) and Mavericks (+ 2.5 in 114-102 win vs. Timberwolves. Knicks (-7.5 vs. Pistons) and Suns (-7 at Lakers) covered in their wins. Unders went 3-2 on the night. Underdogs still lead 77-63-2 ATS (55 percent) so far in December with 2 games closing pick-’em. Overs dipped to 76-66-2 (53.5 percent) in December, but have still cut Unders' overall lead on the season to 244-213-6 (53.4 percent).

CBB: No. 23 Villanova beat No. 18 Xavier 71-58, but it was NOT an upset as the Wildcats closed as 5.5-point home favorites. The only other Top 25 team to lose Tuesday night was No. 10 Alabama, 79-78 to Davidson, which closed as a 9.5-point dog and + 400 on the money line.

NHL: Lightning beat Golden Knights 4-3 Tuesday night as short -102 road dog in the only game of the night after 10 were originally on the schedule. The game went Over the betting total of 6 goals. It was also the last game before the NHL shuts down until after Christmas due to COVID-19 issues.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million leader HANNIBAL BARCA-1 went 4-1 in Week 15 to improve to 55-20 (73.3 percent). HANNIBAL BARCA's entry #2 is in 2nd place at 54-21 (72 percent) and 1.5 points ahead of Taco The Town in 3rd place at 52-22-1 (70.3 percent). For those who don’t know, contestants make 5 plays a week against the contest spread and receive 1 point for each win and 0,5 for each push.

SuperContest leader NOMSNAIGANSKK went 4-1 in Week 15 to improve to 51-23-1 (68.9 percent). LITOFSKY CLAN is a half-point back in 2nd place. SuperContest Gold leader CALABASAS WISE GUY went 4-1 to improve to 50-23-2 (68.5 percent) and extend his lead to 5.5 points over the person in 2nd place with 3 weeks to go.

ICYMI on Sunday: Circa Survivor, with $6 million on the line, has 16 live entries heading into "Christmas Week" (which includes Thursday and Saturday games only) after the Vikings won for the last survivor in Week 15. Eliminated in Week 15 were those that used the Cardinals (5), Jaguars (1) and Buccaneers (1). Those advancing used the Dolphins (12), who had to sweat before pulling out a 31-24 victory over the Jets, the 49ers (3) and the Vikings (1).

Wednesday’s Takes

Cavaliers + 6 at Celtics: The Cavaliers have covered 14 straight games (and are an impressive 25-6 ATS, though I’ve seen other people post them as 24-6-1 ATS; I’m guessing they have the push in Cavs’ 3-point loss on Nov. 10, which I graded as closing at + 3.5). Anyway, we’ve been on them in five games during their current run though we’ve only posted them as best bets here in three of those wins. However, we continue to hear from readers thanking us for putting them on the Cavs early in their run. The overnight line wasn’t posted here in Vegas (which is understandable with the constantly breaking COVID news, etc.), but DraftKings had the Celtics -6 so we’re expecting the line to land somewhere around that Wednesday morning and finally able to get them as dogs again after being favored in their last five games. I’m not sure why the Celtics are favored by this much with them losing five of their last seven games while the Cavs have won six straight along with the cover streak 

Missouri + 6.5 vs. Army: This didn’t make my Top 10 bowl best bets, but I’m playing it as I feel the line is getting a little out of control. I usually love betting service academies as I feel you always get their best effort – and I know they’re a combined 37-14 ATS since 1980 – but Missouri still is taking a step down in class after facing a much tougher schedule in the SEC. I’ll gladly take whatever points I can get (I’m already invested in the Tigers in several pools I’m leading where I’m only getting + 4.5 as well as other confidence pools to either win SU or ATS). Army is also in a letdown spot after losing to its biggest rival, Navy.

Good luck today (and every day!).


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