Tuesday was a long day as we stayed up late Monday night/early Tuesday to file yesterday’s column and then got up at 9 a.m. to write the original weekly “Tuley’s Take” version of this column for Point Spread Weekly as we made our final NFL preseason picks for Preseason Week 3 and also some CFB Week 0 picks for this Saturday.
I also signed up some proxy clients for the contests at Circa and the Westgate. While I was at Westgate, I watched the top of the 5th inning for my Best Bet of the day on the Mets 1st 5 + 124 at the Yankees. The Mets trailed 2-0 but had runners on 2nd and 3rd with two outs. Starling Marte singled to right field and I was hoping we’d get a push on our wager, but Brett Baty was thrown out (by a country mile) by Oswaldo Cabrera and our bet lost 2-1. So close but yet so far.
Unfortunately we didn’t have any such thrill with our bet on the Brewers 1st 5 at the Dodgers as Corbin Burnes had his worst start of the season as the Dodgers led 7-1 through 5 innings.
Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more 1st 5 plays on Wednesday day when I’ll be driving my oldest kid to Flagstaff to check into the dorms at Northern Arizona University. And then I’ll add my early football plays for the weekend.
Tuesday’s recaps
MLB: Faves went 13-3 Tuesday with the only upsets by the Cubs (+ 170 in 2-0, Game 1 win vs. Cardinals), Guardians (+ 128 in 3-1 win at Padres) and Orioles (+ 120 in 5-3 win vs. White Sox). Yankees (-129) beat Mets 4-2 to complete 2-game sweep of mini-subway series. Home teams went 9-7. Overs also 9-7.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,095-722 SU (60.3 percent) on the season with 27 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 974-868 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 905-839-97 (51.9 percent).
NFL (ICYMI): Faves are 18-13 SU overall in the preseason with 2 pick-’ems, but dogs have taken a 15-14-2 ATS lead. Road teams lead 17-15 SU but are tied 15-15-2 ATS (note: neutral-site Hall of Fame Game not included). After starting 8-0 and then dipping to 18-11, the last 4 games have gone Over and they’re back up to 22-11 (66.7 percent) overall.
Wednesday’s Takes
Orioles 1st 5 + 105 (BetMGM) vs. White Sox: I believe the only reason the White Sox are favored here is based on reputation, but Luis Giolito isn’t as good as we’ve seen in recent years. Baltimore’s Spenser Watkins (4-3, 4.04 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) has better numbers and even though the Orioles are 1-2 in his last 3 starts, his WHIP is even better at 0.88 so he should have the Orioles right in it for this 1st 5 wager. That’s my only play on the day as a couple of the pitchers that I like on teams that normally are dogs (Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen and Rangers’ Martin Perez) are actually chalk on Wednesday, so I’m afraid this could be another chalk day.
Here are some football picks we put in Point Spread Weekly (column is already posted at VSiN.com).
Friday
Bills + 6 at Panthers: This line is still at 6 even though the Panthers have named Baker Mayfield the winner in the QB battle vs. Sam Darnold – and I don’t think the Bills’ backups have been given enough credit for the whipping they put on the Broncos last Saturday.
Seahawks -3 at Cowboys: I was actually tempted to lay the 3 points with the Seahawks as I was expecting Drew Lock to resume his battle with Geno Smith, but it appears a lot of people agreed with my reasoning as the line was already up to Seahawks -4.5 as of early Wednesday morning. I’m passing.
Saturday
Wyoming 10 at Illinois: I’m being contrarian as I’ve heard some of my VSiN colleagues on Illinois, but I think this line was too high at 10 and like it even more at + 11 as of early Wednesday.
Vanderbilt-Hawaii Over 55: I made the case in PSW for the Over at 55 and like it even more at Over 53.5 at several books this morning.
Good luck today (and every day!).