Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday betting recaps, Wednesday best bet (1/5)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 5, 2022 03:38 AM

As we’re written before, Tuesdays in the Tuley’s Takes home office are mostly spent writing my regular “Tuley’s Takes” column for Point Spread Weekly and helping with the rest of the issue.

But it was great to take a break around 4 p.m. PT to check in on the NHL First-Period Overs that we gave out in yesterday’s edition of these daily columns on VSiN.com. Our best bet of the day wasn’t until 5:30 p.m. PT in the Avalanche-Blackhawks game, but we had two other plays we recommended starting just after 4 p.m. PT.

The Flames-Panthers game needed just over 7 minutes to go Over 1.5 goals with the two teams trading goals on the way to a whopping 5 goals in the first period and the Lightning-Blue Jackets game needed just 9:30 to go Over 1.5 as the Lightning scored twice on the way to building a 3-0 lead on the way to a 7-2 victory. Those were easy as we didn’t even have to sweat as both went Over before the halfway point of the first period.

By comparison, the Avalanche-Blackhawks bet (I was able to get it at Over 1.5 -120) was much harder as the Avalanche scored 7:43 into the first period and didn’t score again until 13:54 into the game, but that still gave us the win with more than 6 minutes to spare.

I wish our bets all won so easily!!! But we’ll try again Wednesday night. There’s only two NHL games on the schedule, but I’ll tell you how I’m betting them after we recap all of the major sports betting action from Tuesday night.

Tuesday’s recaps

CFB: Kansas State routed LSU 42-20 Tuesday night in the Texas Bowl, the last of the FBS bowl games. The Wildcats easily covered after closing as 9.5-point favorites over the short-handed Tigers as the game went Over the betting total of 47 points.

More CFB: Faves went 27-10 SU this bowl season with 1 game closing pick-'em (Western Kentucky-Appalachian State) and also led 21-15-1 ATS (58.3 percent) with that 1 PK. Overs led 20-18 (52.6 percent), though Unders went 15-11 (57.7 percent) from Dec. 22 through tonight after a 3-9 start.

CBB: No. 21 LSU beat No. 16 Kentucky 65-60, but it was NOT an upset as the Tigers closed and covered as 2-point home favorites. Marquette beat No. 16 Providence (yes, there was a tie for 16th in the AP Poll) 88-56 in a game that closed as a consensus pick-'em.

NBA: Faves went 4-1 SU and ATS with the lone upset by the Grizzlies (+ 3.5 in 110-106 win at the Cavaliers). The Raptors (-7 vs. Spurs), Knicks (-3.5 vs. Pacers), Suns (-6 at Pelicans) and Lakers (-6.5 vs. Kings) all won and covered as chalk. Overs went 3-1-1 with the push on in the Grizzlies-Cavaliers (216) game.

NHL: Faves went 7-1 with the lone upset by the Predators (shortest of dogs at -102) in 3-2 win at Golden Knights. Overs went 5-3 on the night and are 17-7-1 (70.8 percent) since the start of the year on Jan. 1 and 28-16-1 (63.6 percent) since games resumed after the Christmas break on Dec. 28.

Wednesday’s Take

Oilers-Maple Leafs First-Period Over 1.5 -145: Just like last night, I’ll designate my best bet. According to stats compiled by @PSUOtto on Twitter, the Oilers are 20-12 with the 1P Overs so far this season (though they are missing Connor McDavid, who just had a positive COVID test) while the Maple Leafs are 16-15. That’s a combined 36-27 (57.1 percent). At -145, we need 59.2 percent to break even, but I’m encouraged by the fact the Maple Leafs have gone Over in the first period in their last 6 games, so they’re trending in the right direction. I would normally parlay my best bet with the other game on the schedule, Blues-Penguins, but the Blues and Penguins are both 1P Under teams at 17-15 and 20-11, respectively, so if you want a second play I would actually recommend Blues-Penguins Under 1P + 115. But, again, I really feel the Oilers-Maple Leafs 1P Over -145 is the stronger play


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