Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recaps, weekend football picks (11/5)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 5, 2021 01:03 AM
Mike_Leach

When I write my “Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” columns in the fall, I usually have a line where I saw that there’s always time to follow some horse races while watching football all day long. Well, the script has been flipped the past two days as I’ve been up to my eyeballs in Breeders’ Cup past performances (PPs) and I’ve been squeezing my football viewing in between handicapping the 14 BC races on Friday and Saturday (to see if all my hard work pays off again this year, see that TTT column at VSiN.com/horses.

Anyway, last night’s diversion was the Jets-Colts game on Thursday Night Football. I had the Jets + 10.5 and it was clearly the wrong side as they were getting blown out 42-10 midway through the third quarter. However – and I feel this is an important point to make –the Jets put on a desperate rally and show why I believe my dog-or-pass approach is the best way to try to beat sports betting. The Colts were coasting and only worried about getting out of there with a win; they didn’t care about covering the spread for their backers. Meanwhile, the Jets were playing loose and methodically chipping away at the lead. In the final minute, the Jets trailed just 45-30 and needed just one more TD against the Colts’ prevent defense to actually get the back-door cover. The Jets drove inside the Indy 10-yard line and had first-and-goal with plenty of time left, but Josh Johnson’s pass on first down was tipped and intercepted to secure the win and cover for the Colts and their backers. It didn’t work out this time, but I feel a lot better when a team’s modus operandi is in sync with mine.

Anyway, we can’t feel too bad with the result (especially since we had no right even being closer to covering) after winning the last two nights with MACtion.

Let’s turn our attention to Thursday’s betting recaps and then fully to the football (and horse racing) weekend with updates of our best bets posted in “Point Spread Weekly.” We’ll address each line and decide whether we should bet ASAP or wait for the line to go higher.

Thursday’s recaps

NFL: Colts beat Jets 45-30 on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 9. It was really a blowout as the Colts ran over the Jets and led 42-10 with 6:02 left in the third quarter; however, the Colts needed a late INT to keep the Jets from a back-door cover! The game flew way Over the betting total of 45 points as the Colts reached that number by themselves.

More NFL: Faves are 73-47 SU on the season with 3 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs lead 66-53-1 ATS (55.5 percent). Despite the loss, road teams are still above .500 at 64-56 SU with 3 neutral-site games and also lead 67-52-1 ATS (56.3 percent). Unders lead 66-55-2 (54.5 percent) on the season while primetime Overs improved to 13-11-1, snapping a 6-game TNF Under streak.

NBA: Thunder upset the Lakers 107-104 late Thursday as a 10.5-point road underdog and + 450 on the money line. The game stayed just Under the betting total of 214.5). Favorites still went 3-2 SU and ATS on the night with the only other upset by the Celtics in a 95-78 win at the Heat as 6.5-point road dogs and + 225 on the ML. Unders went 4-1 on the night and lead 77-45-1 (63.1 percent) on the young season.

NHL: Favorites went 8-1 on Thursday night with the lone upset by the Stars (+ 125 in 4-3 win at the Flames). Overs went 7-2.

CFB: Louisiana rallied to beat Georgia State 21-17 on Thursday night, but the Ragin' Cajuns did NOT cover after closing as 13.5-point home favorites and never leading by more than 4 points. The game stayed Under the betting total of 53.5 points.

Friday’s Takes

As we’ve written several times, these are our recommended best bets and the lines from Point Spread Weekly. Go there for more on the reasons why I like the picks, but here we’re most concerned with timing our bets and getting the best numbers possible.

CFB

Mississippi State + 5 at Arkansas: The majority of Vegas books were still at 5 as of late Thursday night, but some books are down to 4.5 with even some 4’s offshore, so grab the best number you can.

Rice + 6.5 at Charlotte: This line is mostly down to 6, but there are some books that are dealing -6 with added juice, so there’s a chance we could see it go back to 6.5. But only wait if you’re confident you’ll be able to grab a stale + 6 if the market starts dropping.

Texas + 6.5 at Iowa State: This is looking pretty solid and it doesn’t look like we’ll get + 7 no matter how long we wait.

Middle Tennessee + 15 at Western Kentucky: I liked this enough in PSW to take the + 15, but now this line is up to 16.5, so wait for it to peak.

Boise State + 5 at Fresno State: This line looks solid.

Note: We usually have six CFB Best Bets from PSW, but we’re already 1-0 ATS this week with Central Michigan (+ 10) pulling the outright upset in a 42-30 win at Western Michigan on Wednesday night.

NFL

Broncos + 10 at Cowboys: We wrote yesterday that we hoped everyone grabbed the 10 as some books had dipped to 9.5. However, a lot of the books are still holding the line at 10, but it looks like it’s still more likely to dip than to go higher.

Vikings + 5.5 at Ravens: This line is up to 6 just about everywhere, so we should wait to see if it goes even higher.

Chiefs pick-’em vs. Packers: Well, this line is long-gone as that’s what it was when we were putting Point Spread Weekly together. You know that I’m not going to lay the -7.5 (or even 7), so let’s just tease it down to -1.5 as the Chiefs pretty much just have to win the game straight-up. For more teaser options, see below.

Titans + 7.5 at Rams: This line stayed at 7.5 for longer than I expected, but now we’re seeing some downward movement toward 7 so be sure to lock in + 7.5 if you can.

Teaser strategy (use these in combinations depending which you like): Browns from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at Bengals, Giants + 2.5 (now 3) to + 8.5 (now 9) vs. Raiders and Eagles + 1.5 to + 7.5 at Chargers. As we mentioned above, with the change in the Packers-Chiefs spread, add the Chiefs from -7.5 to -1.5 (or -7 down to -1) vs. Packers. In addition, I wouldn’t talk anyone out of using Rams from -7.5 down to -1.5 vs. Titans, but as you see I’m on the Titans (though it does have a very hittable middle with Rams -1.5 and Titans + 7.5). Also, we previously included the 49ers teased from + 1.5 to + 7.5 vs. the Cardinals, but now the 49ers have flipped to favoritism; the preferred teaser now would be Cardinals from + 2 to + 8.

And, again, for my Breeders’ Cup selections (and more from my stable of handicapping friends), go to vsin.com/horses.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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