Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recaps, weekend football picks (11/19)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 19, 2021 03:25 AM
Frank_Gore_Jr_Jake_Lange

Sometimes your best bets are the ones you don’t make.

We were feeling pretty good about ourselves Thursday night in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we resisted taking the Falcons as 6.5-point home dogs (closing at 7) against the Patriots in this week’s Point Spread Weekly. That certainly would have been the wrong side as the Patriots rolled to a 25-0 shutout. In addition, we also resisted taking Duke as a 20-point home underdog against Louisville, another no-doubter as Louisville routed Duke 62-22.

Unfortunately, I did lose my biggest bet of the night on the Cavaliers + 9.5 vs. the Warriors. Similar to my Bulls %plusisgn% 1.5 bet on Wednesday night when they led the Blazers 63-48 at halftime but somehow lost and failed to cover in a 112-107 loss, the Cavaliers has a 13-point, second-half lead and squandered it as they ended up losing 104-89 and failed to cover their bigger spread.

That’s back-to-back nights with what I consider to be moderate bad beats (certainly not the most egregious ones that we see, but bad nonetheless), so we’ll leave the hardwood and return to the gridiron which is where our bread is buttered this time of year.

I’ve got a college football play on Friday night and then we also update the rest of our football best bets for the weekend with a look at how the lines are moving, so we can decide whether to bet ASAP or wait until the line peaks closer to kickoff.

But, first, let’s recap all of Thursday night’s betting action in the major team sports.

Thursday’s recaps

NFL: Patriots shut out Falcons 25-0 on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 11, easily covered after closing as a 7-point road favorites and staying well Under the betting total of 47 points. Primetime Over/Unders fell back to .500 at 15-15-1 after primetime Overs had started the season 6-0 and 8-1 after three weeks. That, of course, means that primetime Unders have gone 14-7-1 (66.7 percent) since that 1-8 start, In addition, Thursday night Unders are 8-3 (8-1 since starting 0-2)..

More NFL: Favorites are now 87-60-1 SU on the season with 3 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs still lead 85-62-1 ATS (57.8 percent). Road teams lead 77-70-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games and also lead 86-61-1 ATS (58.5 percent). Unders improved to 83-66-2 (55.7 percent) overall.

CFB: Louisville routed Duke 62-22 on Thursday night, easily covering as a 20-point road favorite. The game went Over the betting total of 60.5 as Louisville topped that number itself.

NBA: Faves went 4-1 SU and ATS Thursday with the Clippers-Grizzlies game closing PK. The lone upset was by the 76ers (+ 7.5 in 103-89 win at the Nuggets). The Heat (-6.5), Warriors (-10), T-Wolves (-2) and Jazz (-10.5) covered as chalk. Over/Unders split 3-3, but Unders still lead 139-88-3 (61.2 percent) on the season.

CBB: Xavier upset No. 19 Ohio State 71-65 as a 2.5-point home underdog and the game went just Over the consensus closing total of 135 points. It was the 4th straight day a Top 25 team from the Big Ten was upset (No. 10 Illinois on Monday, No. 4 Michigan on Tuesday and No. 20 Maryland on Wednesday being the others)  

 

NHL: Favorites went a perfect 11-0 on Thursday with 6 also covering on the -1.5 puck line. Three of the faves did need shootouts to get their wins, including Lightning (-130 at Flyers), Blue Jackets (-156 at Coyotes) and Oilers (-150 vs. Jets). Unders went 6-5.

Friday’s Takes

Southern Mississippi + 16.5 at Louisiana Tech: In yesterday’s update, we advised everyone to grab + 16.5 as the line was trending downward. We hope everyone did, but if not, try to get a 16 now, though I guess I’d still recommend Southern Miss down to + 14.5. Southern Miss is a woeful 1-9 this year and just 2-8 ATS, but this is more of a bet against Louisiana Tech (3-7, 4-5-1 ATS) being more than a two-touchdown favorite. Louisiana Tech allows 33.8 points per game. While Southern Miss has a weak offense, it does have a familiar name in Frank Gore Jr. (731 yards, 2 TDs) and QB Jake Lange should at least have some success against LaTech. The only two teams that the Bulldogs were double-digit faves this year, they won SU but failed to cover the spread against Southeast Louisiana and North Texas. We have a lot of wiggle room for a similar result here.

These are my best bets from Point Spread Weekly as we update them based on how the lines are moving.

CFB

South Alabama + 28 at Tennessee: This line drifted up to +  28.5 at a few books, so I advised waiting to see how high it went, but it appears to have settled back at 28.

Florida State + 2.5 at Boston College: This line has been dropping, so we advised you to grab the best line you can.

Louisiana + 4.5 at Liberty: This is pretty solid at 4.5, but I’d grab ASAP  instead of risking missing out on it.

Wake Forest + 4.5 at Clemson: Grab 4.5 if you can as most books are down to 4. 

Baylor pick-’em at Kansas State: Some books have gone to K-State -1, so I’d wait to see if it goes higher. 

NFL

Lions + 10 at Browns: This was made before knowing that Jared Goff was questionable (of course, Baker Mayfield is also banged up). I’m waiting until we have a clearer idea of who is going to be able to start, but if you believe Goff will play, grab the current line of 11.5.

Colts + 7.5 at Bills: In yesterday’s column, we advised everyone to grab 7.5 if they could, and it’s still recommended to take + 7 even-money.

Washington + 3.5 at Panthers: Try to grab the hook at -110 if you can, though most books are at -120.

Cowboys + 2.5 at Chiefs: Some books have gone to -120 on the Chiefs -2.5, so I’m holding out hope that we can get + 3.

Giants + 11 at Buccaneers: BetMGM has dipped to 10.5, but I’m still holding out hope that the public bets this higher over the weekend.

Teaser strategy: In the NFL Best Bets column elsewhere on VSiN.com, I went with Saints + 7.5/Cowboys + 8.5 as my top two-team, 6-point teaser of the week, but also using combinations with Vikings + 8.5 vs. the Packers, Raiders + vs. the Bengals and Seahawks + 8.5 vs. the Cardinals.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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