Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recaps, weekend football picks (11/12)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 12, 2021 03:00 AM
East_Carolina

It’s not often we’re cheering for a favorite here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but there we were Thursday night pleading for the Ravens to rally against the Dolphins.

We had two two-team, 6-point teasers starting with the Ravens -1.5, but they were only covering when they were leading 3-0 before going on to lose 22-10. It was frustrating, especially since I pride myself in finding live underdogs yet couldn’t see the Dolphins covering in this matchup let alone pull the outright upset.

I certainly wasn’t alone, though that was small consolation as I never feel comfortable when I’m on the same side of the public. However, I’m trying not to beat myself up too much as a great deal of my success with teasers this season has been on favorites.

But let’s move on, starting with our recaps of last night’s betting action across all the major sports. We’ll then take a peek into Contest Corner before updating our best bets for the weekend from Point Spread Weekly, including updating our teaser portfolio after losing with the Ravens. Remember, you can check PSW or the NFL Best Bets file at VSiN.com for the reasoning behind my plays, but in this column we’re most focused on whether to bet our picks ASAP or wait for the lines to peak.

Thursday’s recaps

NFL: Dolphins upset Ravens 22-10 as 8.5-point home underdogs & + 340 on money line on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 10. The game stayed Under the betting total of 47 points as 7 of the last 8 Thursday night games have stayed Under the total. Favorites dropped to 79-55 SU on the season with 3 games closing pick-’em and dogs improved to 77-56-1 ATS (57.9 percent). Road teams dipped to 71-63 SU with 3 neutral-site games and 77-56-1 ATS (57.9 percent). Unders improved to 74-61-2 (54.8 percent) while primetime Overs dipped to 14-13-1 (after 6-0 start).

CFB: No. 21 Pittsburgh held off North Carolina 30-23 in OT in the rain. The Panthers also ended up covering as 6.5-point home favorites thanks to the TD and PAT in OT. The game still stayed well Under the betting total of 72 points).

CBB: No. 21 Maryland beat George Washington 71-64 as the lone CBB Top 25 team in action, but did NOT cover as a 17.5-point home favorite. The biggest upset on the main betting board was UC-Riverside (+ 8.5, + 360 ML) beating Arizona State 66-65 on a nearly three-quarter-court shot at the buzzer.

NBA: Underdogs (all on the road) went 3-0 ATS Thursday with 2 upsets by the Raptors (+ 4 in 115-109 win at 76ers) and Pacers (+ 10.5 in 111-100 win at the Jazz), plus Heat (+ 6) covering in 112-109 loss at Clippers. Overs went 2-1, but Unders still lead 104-68-1 (60.5 percent) on the season. As we wrote the past couple of days, my VSiN colleague Jonathan Von Tobel has been warning for the better part of the past week that the Under trend could be reversing with oddsmakers adjusting the totals downward and, in fact, Overs have gone 22-20-1 the last 6 days to cut into the Unders’ lead. 

NHL: Underdogs went 7-4 on Thursday w/ upsets by Predators (+ 165 at Blues), Ducks (+ 145 at Kraken), Oilers (+ 120 at Bruins), Canadiens (+ 120 vs. Flames), Devils (+ 119 vs. Islanders), Penguins (+ 110 vs. Panthers) & Golden Knights (+ 100 vs. Wild). Unders went 6-5.

Contest Corner

Week 10 of the Westgate SuperContest and Circa Sports Million are underway with the Dolphins’ upset of the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. This week also starts a new in-season 3-week mini-contest (Weeks 10-12) in the SuperContest and the 3rd Quarter at Circa (Weeks 10-13).

In addition, the SuperContest Reboot, a $500 version that runs in NFL Weeks 10-18, starts this week and has an entry deadline of 3 p.m. PT Saturday at the Westgate SuperBook. You must register in person just like the regular SuperContest and proxies are allowed as long as the contestant authorizes them and they both appear in person. The contest uses the same lines as the SC and SC Gold and has a separate pool. Deadline for weekly submissions are also the same as the other contests at 11:59 p.m. PT Saturdays (9 p.m. PT on the mobile app), but remember that the registration deadline is 3 p.m. PT Saturday.

Friday’s Takes (for the weekend)

CFB

Colorado + 16.5 at UCLA: This line is up to 17 so let’s wait to see how high the public bets it.

Stanford + 12.5 at Oregon State: This is looking pretty solid and a few books are down to 12, so maybe grab 12.5 now.

East Carolina + 6 at Memphis: This is already down to 5.5 at most books, so grab ASAP.

Central Florida + 7.5 at SMU: I see BetMGM still at 7.5, so grab it if you can as most books are down to 7. 

Arkansas State + 3 at UL-Monroe: Wait to bet this one as some books have UL-Monroe -3 with added juice, and Station Casinos already at 3.5.

Utah State + 4.5 at San Jose State: This line looks like the most solid of all at 4.5. A few offshore books are at 4, so maybe grab this one now just in case it drops.

NFL

Teaser strategy update: After losing our teasers with the Ravens, we turn our attention to Sunday’s other advantage teasers (aka Wong Teasers or teasers that capture the key number of 3 and 7. Use these in whatever combinations you prefer: Browns from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Patriots, Vikings from + 3 to + 9 at Chargers, Eagles from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Broncos and Raiders + 2.5 to + 8.5 vs. the Chiefs.

Falcons + 9.5 at Cowboys: This has stayed pretty solid, but the Cowboys are still a public team, so I’d wait to see if we get double digits. I just wouldn’t take less than 8.5.

Jets + 13 vs. Bills: This has dropped to 12.5 at most books. I’d grab + 13 if you still can as I don’t see it going any higher.

Lions + 9 at Steelers: This has dropped to 8.5 and even 8 at some books, so grab the best number you can.

Panthers + 10 at Cardinals: This has actually risen to 10.5, so let’s wait to see how high it goes. 

Seahawks + 4 at Packers: This has mostly dipped to 3.5 and even 3, mostly on speculation about whether Aaron Rodgers is going to be able to return. Grab the best number you can now if you think he might be held out of this game; wait if you think he’ll play as this will probably go back to 4 or maybe even 4.5 when he’s cleared to play.  

Good luck today (and every day!).

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