Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recaps, weekend football picks (10/29)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 29, 2021 03:57 AM
Luis_Garcia

NFL Week 8 didn’t quite work out like we wanted here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but we’re already moving on with our plans for the weekend.

We lost our teasers that we started with the Cardinals down to -0.5 as their final drive came up in their 24-21 loss to the Packers when A.J. Green didn’t turn around and Kyler Murray’s pass was intercepted in the end zone when it looked like the worst-case scenario was going to be settling for a late FG to set up overtime.

Let’s get to the general betting recaps from Thursday night and then make some best bets for Friday (MLB and college football) and update our best bets in pro football from Point Spread Weekly. This also includes a renewed look at the teaser options on Sunday now that several lines have changed significantly from just a few days ago when we were putting together PSW.

Thursday’s recaps

NFL: Packers held off the Cardinals 24-21 on Thursday Night Football to deal Arizona its first loss of the season to kick off NFL Week 8. The Packers did it as 6.5-point underdogs and + 230 on the money line. The game stayed Under 51); primetime Overs drop to 12-9-1 (after 6-0 start) as #TNF had 6th straight Under.

CFB: No. 24 Coastal Carolina (17-point home favorite) beat Troy 35-28, but did NOT cover the spread. The game went Over the betting total of 50.5 points. Also on Thursday night, East Carolina (9.5-point home fave) covered in a 29-14 win vs. South Florida, That game stayed Under 56.

NBA: Faves/dogs split 3-3 SU but dogs went 5-1 ATS with upsets by the Wizards (+ 4 vs. Hawks), Knicks (+ 1.5 at Bulls) and Grizzlies (+ 6 at Warriors), plus Pistons (+ 11 at 76ers) and Spurs (+ 6.5 at Mavs) covering in SU losses. The Jazz (-9.5 at Rockets) were the only fave to cover. Unders went 4-2.

NHL: Underdogs went 5-3 Thursday with the Wild-Kraken game closing pick-'em. Upsets were by the Flames (-105 at Penguins), Sabres (+ 115 at Ducks), Flyers (+ 120 at Canucks), Canadiens (+ 110 at Sharks) and Jets (+ 100 at Kings). Road teams went 6-3, while Unders went 6-3

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Friday’s Takes

Astros (+ 100) at Braves: The World Series resumes Friday night. If you’ll recall, we advised a series bet on the Astros at + 145 when they were trailing 1-0. Now that they’re evened the series at 1-1, you could take the Braves right now at around + 120 and lock in a guaranteed profit. But we don’t bet that way. Even though we respect what the Braves have done, we still believe we have the better team with the Astros (MLB-best 5.4 runs per game compared to 4.8 for the Braves). The even pitching matchup of Houston’s Luis Garcia (12-9, 3.66 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Atlanta’s Ian Anderson (10-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) shows why this game is lined close to pick-’em, but again we think it’s better than a 50/50 chance that the Astros’ offense will come out ahead.

CFB

Friday: Navy + 11 at Tulsa: Line still pretty solid at 11, so fire away.

Iowa + 3.5 at Wisconsin: I know the Hawkeyes’ performance was ugly in the loss to Purdue two weeks ago, but they still shouldn’t be underdogs of more than a field goal. A few 3’s are popping up offshore, so I’d grab the + 3.5 ASAP.

Indiana + 6 at Maryland: This is down to 5.5, but I still like it.

Virginia Tech + 4 vs. Georgia Tech: Looking pretty solid at 4.

Florida State + 10 at Clemson: I advised to grab the 10 if you could; it’s down to 9.5 just about everywhere. You lose the insurance of a push if it landed on exactly 10, but I still say we have enough of an edge to play it down to + 8.5.

Penn State + 18.5 at Ohio State: On Wednesday, I wrote “I’m waiting as this looks like it’s going higher” and it certainly has as we see some 19’s out there. It seems to have lost some momentum, but we’ll wait until Saturday to see if it steams to 20. I think we’re fine as long as this doesn’t reverse and dip below 17.5.

NFL

Updated teaser approach: We lost our teasers starting with the Cardinals on TNF, but there’s been plenty of line movement this week that impact our teaser portfolio. We advised teasing the Colts from + 1 to + 7 in PSW, but now the line has flipped to the Colts being favored and the Titans being the preferred teaser side from + 2.5 to + 8.5. Likewise, with news that Dak Prescott might not be ready to return Sunday night, if you used the Vikings +, that’s no longer available with the Vikes favored by 2.5, so the preferred teaser is now the Cowboys from + 2.5 to + 8.5. So, tease the Titans with the Cowboys. The only other teaser options I like aren’t  “Wong” or “advantage” teasers as you pay for a point or half-point you really don’t need, but I’d consider combinations using the Panthers teased up from + 3 to + 9 at the Falcons, Lions from + 3.5 to + 9.5 vs. the Eagles and Steelers from + 3.5 to + 9.5 at the Browns.

Lions + 3.5 vs. Eagles: Some books have dipped to 3, so grab the hook ASAP in case the line starts dropping again.

Steelers + 3.5 at Browns: This is looking even more stable at 3.5, so it should be safe to wait to see if it goes to 4, but just be ready to react if the market starts to move to 3.

Patriots + 5.5 at Chargers: We advised to grab the 5.5s and now they’re long gone as most books dealing 4.5. I wouldn’t take any lower than that.

Giants + 10 at Chiefs: Some books dipped to 9,5 but most have returned to 10 as of early Friday morning. You should probably grab the 10 if you haven’t already in case it dips again. As popular of a team as the Chiefs remain, there’s certainly a lot of people turning on them now, so I’m less certain of this rising to 10.5 over the weekend.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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