It’s been an interesting past 24 hours here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
After filing yesterday’s “Tuley’s Takes Today” column late Wednesday night, I noticed that William Hill/Caesars had dropped the Rams from -4.5 to -3.5. I Tweeted it out and it was cool to hear Mitch Moss share it nearly verbatim at the top of the “Follow the Money” show: “For early-risers, @WilliamHillUS/@CaesarsSports went to Rams -3.5 vs. Bengals late last night in #vegas; we've been advising our readers/followers to grab Bengals 4.5 in case this happened...4.5s still available but maybe not for long.”
Throughout the rest of the day we watched as more and more books moved to Rams -4 with William Hill/Caesars bounced back and forth from -3.5 to -4 and back again until our late-night update below with Wynn the only book still at Rams -4.5 for those in Vegas who still wanted Bengals + 4.5.
Our words weren’t as prophetic with our best bets on Wednesday as we lost with Clemson against Duke and only split with our two NHL 1P Over plays. Devils-Blues went Over (and Devils improved to 18-1 with “goal in first 10 minutes” for those playing that prop) but Blue Jackets-Sabres could only muster 1 goal.
For longtime readers that know I love “swagger” (when a team loses 6 or more straight games and then suddenly wins – to get its swagger back – and usually covers again the next game) and “anti-swagger” plays (when a team wins 6 or more and then loses and is often fadeable in the next game as it's lost its swagger), I was kicking myself that I didn’t make a best bet of the Knicks against the Warriors after the Warriors had their 9-game winning streak snapped the prior night. Fortunately, some loyal readers gave me a heads-up during the day, but we only bet the Knicks + 9.5 and missed the money-line play as the Knicks actually beat the swagger-less Warriors outright for their second straight loss. The whole situation made me feel good as it showed me that readers are actually putting the lessons that I’m trying to teach here to practical use in being sharper sports bettors. As I’ve always said, give a man a winner and he eats steak for the day, teach a man to handicap like a winner and he eats steak for a lifetime!
Let’s wrap up the rest of Wednesday’s betting action (including chalk still thriving in the NBA as the Knicks were the lone dog to bark), plus our daily update of the Super Bowl side and total, and then look for value on the Thursday betting boards. In addition, I went ahead and made Bengals + 4.5 my official Super Bowl LVI pick the other day in case the line dropped, which it did at a few books on Tuesday.
Thursday’s recaps
NBA: Faves went 6-1 SU on Thursday (37-5 SU the last 6 days) and 5-1-1 ATS (34-6-2 ATS, 85 percent, the last 6 days). The lone upset was by the Knicks (+ 9.5, + 375 money line in 116-114 win at the Warriors). The push was by the Wizards (-1 in 113-112 win vs. Nets, who lost their 10th straight game). Overs 6-1.
CBB: Michigan upset No. 3 Purdue in 82-58 rout as 3.5-point home underdog and + 155 on the money line. No. 2 Gonzaga (-31.5), No. 4 Arizona (-6.5), No. 7 Duke (-7) and No. 22 Saint Mary's (-15) covered in their wins. No. 23 Murray State (-14.5) beat Tennessee State 73-62 but didn't cover.
NHL: Faves went 5-2 on Thursday with the upsets by the Devils (+ 210 in 7-4 win at the Blues) and Flames (+ 119 in 5-2 win vs. the Maple Leafs). Overs also went 5-2.
Super Bowl odds update (10 p.m. PT Thursday): As we've been predicting, Rams dropped to -4 at nearly all Las Vegas books with William Hill/Caesars going even lower at Rams -3.5. The Wynn sportsbook is the only one holding the line at Rams -4.5 as of late Thursday. The Over/Under is still a solid 48.5 in Vegas.
Friday’s Takes
Lightning-Coyotes First-Period Over 1.5 -150: This is about as high as I’ll go to actually lay juice with any kind of bet, as I’ll usually look to parlay these 1P Overs instead, but none of the other games qualifies as a play for me on Friday’s short card.
UConn + 1.5 at Xavier: These teams are pretty evenly matched, but with Xavier such a short home favorite, it shows that oddsmakers have UConn rated slightly better on a neutral court. UConn is coming off a win over Marquette, which beat Xavier in their last meeting. However, UConn recently lost to Creighton, which Xavier has swept. So, this isn’t much of an edge, but I like it better than any dog on the chalk-heavy NBA card.
Super Bowl: Bengals + 4.5. We recommended grabbing the 4.5 the other day in case the line dropped. Well, that’s happened and I hope everyone with me on the Bengals grabbed it as you might now see it again. If you’re looking for my thoughts on the Over/Under and the huge menus of Super Bowl props, check out my regular “Tuley’s Takes column in Point Spread Weekly” or the VSiN.com Best Bets file.
Good luck today (and every day!).