Thursday was pretty much a lost day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.
Except for handicapping the weekend races at Belmont (we’ll have our “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes'' posted at VSiN.com on Friday afternoon), we didn’t feel like we accomplished much during the day.
We thought our picks were getting off to a great start with the White Sox jumping out to a 4-0 lead over the Dodgers in a day game, but Dylan Cease couldn’t hold the lead as the bullpen wasn’t much help as the Dodgers won 11-9.
Our results didn’t improve in the night games. We had the Twins + 1.5 + 100 vs. the Yankees. It started great again as the first three Twins batters homered off Gerrit Cole and five took him deep as he only lasted 2 1/3 innings with the Twins leading 7-3. We sure felt like we were on the right side again, but even though Minnesota starter Dylan Bundy left with a lead, the bullpen gave up 6 runs and the Yankees won 10-7 as the Twins couldn’t even cover the run line.
We also couldn’t get our NHL play on the Rangers + 110 vs. Lightning to hold a lead at home as the Rangers drew first blood but fell 3-1.
Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s overall betting results and try to get back on the winning track on Friday as we head into the weekend.
Lightning beat Rangers 3-1 Thursday night to take a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Lightning won as a -120 favorite as the first road team to win in this series (game stayed Under betting total of 5.5 goals). Faves improved to 7-2 in the conference finals round and now lead 54-28 overall. Home teams dipped to 5-3 in this round and 50-32 overall. Unders improved to 6-3 in this round (4-1 in this series), while Overs still lead 43-37-2 (53.8 percent) overall.
Angels (-128 home faves) beat Red Sox 5-2 late Thursday to snap a 14-game losing streak. Faves went 8-3 on day with upsets by the Rockies (+ 210 in 4-2 win at Giants), Diamondbacks (+ 125 in 5-4 win at Reds) and Phillies (+ 150 in 8-3 win at Brewers). Home teams went 6-5. Overs 6-5.
Faves are 511-327 SU (61 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves are still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 439-416 (51.3 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead just 422-389-42 (52 percent).
No game on Thursday, but here’s the playoff stats heading into Friday’s game. Faves are 2-1 SU and ATS so far in the Finals and 56-28 SU and 49-35 ATS (58.3 percent) overall. Home teams 2-1 SU and ATS in Finals while 51-33 SU and 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent) overall. The zig-zig is 2-0 ATS so far in the Finals, 39-30 ATS (56.5 percent) overall. Overs are 2-1 in Finals, but Unders lead 49-35 (58.3 percent).
Angels + 115 vs. Mets (updated from original post with line as of Friday afternoon):
We’ve waited a long time for this swagger play as the Angels finally snapped their 14-game losing streak late last night. Both teams are battling injuries. As of early Friday morning, the Angels hadn’t announced a starting pitcher so we might get a “starter” or a bullpen game, but either way we’re looking to back the Angels as they get the momentum from ending their skid. We’re also looking to fade the Red Sox as their 7-game winning streak was snapped and they have to travel to Seattle to face the Mariners, who are suddenly playing well with back-to-back-to-back series wins against the Astros, Orioles, Rangers and Astros again. Note: Mariners available between -105 and even money as of Friday afternoon.
Warriors + 4 at Celtics:
I’ve been waffling (“mmmm,” as Homer Simpson would say, “waffles!”) back and forth on what to do with Friday’s Game 4. We’re sitting pretty with the Celtics leading 2-1 in the NBA Finals for our series bet, but feel this could be the spot to hedge. Now, we could take the Warriors + 195 to win the series to lock in a profit, but I’m greedy and like the idea better of taking the Warriors +4 to cover in Game 4. If they win to even the game outright, I’ll lock in some profits, but it has the added benefit that the Celtics could win by 1-3 points (though a non-cover by the winning team hasn’t happened much in this year’s NBA playoffs) and I’ll win the hedge plus be in great shape for my series bet. If the Celtics win and cover, I won’t feel too bad about losing this play. This is also why I’m not using it as my Best Bet of the day.
Good luck today (and every day!).