Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recaps, updated ATS stats, Friday Best Bets 6/17

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

June 17, 2022 04:09 AM
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Thursday was supposed to be another day of chores and errands in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office but it was mostly spent watching the first round of the U.S. Open.

Of course, the main event was Game 6 of the NBA Finals. We again made the right call with our Best Bet on the Warriors + 4 at the Celtics as they won 103-90 to close out the series and the NBA season. It also meant we lost our series bet on the Celtics, but at least we came out OK in the series as we also had wins on the Celtics in Game 1 and the Warriors in Game 4 (along with a loss on the Celtics in Game 2, a pass on Game 3 and a loss on the Celtics in Game 5, so 3-2 ATS in individual game bets.

It was also a winning day in MLB as we were right in predicting another chalky day, but won both of our top plays on the Rangers -1.5 + 115 in 3-1 win at the Tigers and Angels -1.5 + 140 in 4-1 win at the Mariners. We also gave out 3 plays for our chalk-betting followers who were willing to lay juice on the run line in addition to -1.5 runs as the Padres covered in a 6-4 win at the Cubs and the Phillies covered in a 10-1 rout at the Nationals while the only loser was the Blue Jays in a 10-2 loss vs. the Orioles.

Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting action and try to find more MLB winners on Friday whether they are dogs or turning faves into dogs with the run line.

Thursday’s recaps

NBA: Warriors beat Celtics 103-90 Thursday night in Game 6 of the NBA Finals to win the series 4-2 and claim their 4th title in 8 years. The Warriors did it as 4-point road underdogs and + 150 on the money line. The game stayed way Under the betting total of 212 points.

More NBA: Faves/dogs split 3-3 SU and ATS in the NBA Finals. Faves finished 57-30 SU and 50-37 ATS (57.5 percent) overall in the playoffs. Home teams also split 3-3 SU and ATS in series, and lead 52-35 SU and 45-42 ATS (51.7 percent) overall. The zig-zig dipped to 3-2 ATS in the series after starting 3-0 ATS, and still finished 40-32 ATS (55.6 percent) overall. Unders went 4-2 in Finals and 52-35 (59.8 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves went 7-2 Thursday with the only upsets by the Orioles (+ 215 in 10-2 rout at Blue Jays) and A's (+ 156 in 4-3 win at Red Sox). Faves also went 5-4 on -1.5 run line. The Cubs lost their 10th straight. The Braves were idle, so they’re still on a 14-game win streak heading into their weekend series at the Cubs! Road teams also went 7-2 on the day. Unders 6-3.

More MLB: Faves lead 573-361 SU (61.3 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 487-464 (51.2 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders improved to 466-438-45 (51.5 percent), but that 60 percent start to the season is a distant memory.

NHL: There’s no Stanley Cup Final game until Saturday, but faves (Avalanche) started the final round 1-0 (after going 8-2 last round) and lead 56-28 overall. Home teams also started 1-0 (7-3 last round) and now 52-32 overall. Overs started 1-0 (Unders led 7-3 last round) and improved to 44-38-2 (53.7 percent) overall.

Friday’s Takes

Pirates + 1.5 + 105 vs. Giants: This is a swagger play on the Pirates after they snapped their 9-game losing streak on Wednesday against the Cardinals. I usually like these when they’re the next day, but the Pirates had a travel day before returning home for this series. We’re counting on Zach Thompson (3-4, 4.50 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) to keep the Pirates in the game. We’ll also take a little bit on the money line at + 180. The only other MLB dog I like on Friday is the White Sox/Giolito + 160 at the Astros.

More MLB: If looking to turn faves into dogs on the run line, I like the Yankees/Montgomery -1.5 + 135 at the Blue Jays and Brewers/Lauer -1.5 + 140 at the Reds. For those willing to lay juice in addition to the -1.5 runs, I’d recommend the Phillies over the Nationals (Game 1) if Joan Adon is back as listed at Don Best Sports, plus the Dodgers/Kershaw -1.5 -130 vs. the Guardians.

Lightning + 135 or higher at Avalanche (Saturday): We have the Lightning on a series bet, so we’re obviously counting on them to bounce back and even the series with a split in Colorado. We feel the OT game shows that Game 1 was basically a coin-flip and could have gone either way, so there’s value in the + 135 (+ 138 at Circa in Vegas and + 140 at DraftKings elsewhere). )I also don’t mind putting a little more on the Lightning at around + 230 to win the series.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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