Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recaps, MLB (and football) picks (10-8)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

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Baseball continues to pay the bills here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we hit again with the Astros -1.5 (+ 155) in their 6-1 win over the White Sox in Game 1 of their American League Division Series.

That was a thing of beauty with the plus-price on the run line, but it wasn’t a perfect day as we suffered a bit of a bad beat on Thursday Night Football with the start of some 6-point teasers to kick off NFL Week 5.

The Seahawks were between 1.5- and 2.5-point underdogs most of the early part of this week in their NFC West battle against the Rams. We advised teasing them up to + 8.5. Trailing 23-17 in the fourth quarter, it looked like the additional points were going to be enough as the Seahawks got the ball with just over two minutes remaining. Geno Smith, who had replaced starting QB Russell Wilson (finger) and already rallied us twice to get inside the teaser number, threw an INT to set up a late Rams field goal to make the final score 26-17 with a nine-point margin to kill those teasers.

But that’s sports betting. We put ourselves into the right position to win, but it didn’t work out this time (though I know some followers got a push on their teasers if they waited until Thursday afternoon and teaser when the line went to + 3 (and thus + 9 on a six-point teaser).

We’ll look to do the same thing with another baseball winner on Friday and then a look at my football picks for the weekend as first posted in Point Spread Weekly. Check out this week’s issue or the VSiN Best Bets file at VSiN.com for more details on my reasoning behind each pick as we mostly just list the adjustments to our picks here as lines move during the week.

Thursday’s recaps

NFL: Rams beat Seahawks 26-17 on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 5. The Rams also covered as 2.5-point road favorites and the game stayed well Under the closing total of 53.5 points. With the road/fave/Under result, faves now lead 36-27 SU on the season with 2 games closing pick-’em (Buccaneers-Rams in Week 3 and Browns-Vikings in Week 4), but underdogs still lead 37-26 ATS (58.7 percent). Road teams improved to 34-30 SU with 1 neutral-site game (Packers-Saints in Week 1) and 36-28 ATS (56.3 percent). Unders improved to 38-27 (58.5 percent), though prime-time Overs dipped to 8-5 after starting the season at 6-0 through Week 2 and 8-1 through Week 3. 

MLB: Rays shut out Red Sox 5-0 on Thursday night in Game 1 of their American League Division Series. The Rays won as -155 home favorites and also covered the run line of -1.5 runs (+ 125). The game stayed Under the total of 8 runs. Faves went 2-0 on the opening day of the ALDS – with both covering the run line – as the Astros (-132 and -1.5 + 155 on the run line…cha-ching for me and my followers here) beat the White Sox 6-1 earlier on Thursday. Unders also went 2-0 on the day as that game stayed Under the total of 7.5 runs.

CFB: No. 15 Coastal Carolina routed Arkansas State 52-20 on Thursday night as the Chanticleers also covered as 20-point road favorites. The game stayed Under the closing total of 74.5 points after opening at 72.5 at a majority of Las Vegas books. Houston (-6.5) also covered in a 40-22 road win at Tulane.

Friday’s Takes (plus CFB and NFL look-ahead)

White Sox (+ 110) at Astros: Yes, after winning the Astros on the run line in Game 1, we’re coming back with the White Sox in Game 2 on Friday. We like the pitching matchup better with Luis Giolito (11-9, 3.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) taking on left-hander Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). And I sure we all remember how well the Sox have done against left-handed starters the last two years, though they just split their two games vs. Valdez this year.

Giants (+ 110) vs. Dodgers: The Giants held off the defending world champs to win the NL West and avoid the wild-card game. They went toe-to-toe with the Dodgers all year, winning the season series 10-9, but are still home underdogs in Game 1 of this series. I like the matchup with Logan Webb (11-3, 2.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) starting for the Giants even though he’s facing Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Webb is 10-0 since May 5 (and the Giants are 14-2 in his last 16 starts) and pitched the division-clincher on Sunday. That also includes a 3-0 mark against the Dodgers this season.

And let’s give our rundown of our best bets from Point Spread Weekly as we update our recommendations on when to make these plays as the lines move during the week.

East Carolina + 10 at Central Florida

Buffalo + 6 at Kent State

Ball State + 11 at Western Michigan

LSU + 3 at Kentucky

Texas + 3 vs. Oklahoma

Texas-San Antonio + 3.5 at Western Kentucky

 

Jets + 3 vs. Falcons in London: We’re starting to see some books go to 2.5, so grab the Jets ASAP. We’re also using the Jets to kick off some teasers with the early Sunday start (9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT).  

Football Team teased up to + 7.5 vs. Saints: This line has been drifting up, so 

Lions + 8 at Vikings (up to 9.5 now), though also using Vikings in teasers: The line is now up to + 10, though we’re no longer using the Vikings in teasers.

Bengals + 3 vs. Packers: This is showing signs of dipping with support on the underdog Bengals, so grab the 3 now.

Browns teased up to + 7.5 at Chargers: This line is up to Chargers -2 so the teasers are looking even better.

Giants + 7 at Cowboys, though using Cowboys -1 in teasers: This line has been holding pretty steady.

Bills + 3 at Chiefs: The 3’s are mostly gone, but still playing in teasers at + 8.5

Colts + 7 at Ravens on MNF, though using Ravens -1 in teasers: This line also looking solid.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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