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Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recaps, Friday best bets (9-24)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

September 24, 2021 01:13 AM
Sam_Hartman

We had good news and bad news in the Tuley’s Takes home office on Thursday as we won for the fourth straight day with the Cardinals + 110, but then lost our play on Over 43 in the Panthers’ 24-9 win over the Texans on Thursday Night Football.

With the -110 on the Over/Under bet, like Jerry Seinfeld, we were “even-steven.”

Let’s get to the general betting recaps before trying to get back on the positive side of the ledger with two potential MLB plays on Friday (and maybe three), plus a college football underdog to start the weekend.

Thursday’s betting recaps

NFL: The Panthers beat the Texans 24-9 to kick off Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. The Panthers also covered after closing as 8.5-point road favorites. The game stayed Under the betting total of 43 points as Overs in prime-time games came up short for the first time this season to drop to 6-1. On the season, faves lead 18-15 SU, but underdogs still lead 21-12 ATS (63.6 percent) w/ 15 upsets plus 6 covers in losses. Road teams improved to 17-15 SU & 19-13 ATS (59.4 percent) overall as home-field advantage continues to be negligible. Unders improved to 18-15 (54.5 percent).

CFB: Appalachian State rallied to beat Marshall 31-30 Thursday night to kick off Week 4. The Mountaineers did NOT cover as 7-point home favorites, though they had a shot on their final game-clinching drive but RB intentionally went down short of goal-line and then they took a knee on their last three plays to ensure they didn't give the ball back to Marshall. The game went Over the betting total of 59 points on Appalachian State’s go-ahead (and ultimate game-winning) field goal with 5:45 to play.

MLB: The Cardinals (%lplussign% 105) rallied to beat the Brewers 8-5 Thursday for their 12th straight win. Underdogs went an impressive 9-3 on the day with the biggest upsets by the Diamondbacks (+ 180 vs. Braves) and Nationals (+ 175 at Reds). Favoritest still lead 1,310-906 (59.1 percent) on the season with 53 games closing pick-’em. Overs went 8-4 Thursday, cutting Unders’ slim lead on the season to 1,083-1,079-101 (50.1 percent).

Friday’s Takes

Cardinals (-1.5 + 110) at Cubs: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I know I wrote that yesterday, but it still applies with the Cardinals’ winning streak up to 12 games. No Las Vegas books had an overnight line, but DraftKings had the Cardinals as -160 road favorites over the Cubs in Game 1 of a doubleheader at Wrigley Field after being underdogs in all four games of their sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee. I’m not one to lay that much juice, so I waited to see if we’d get plus-money (essential turning a betting fave into a dog) by laying 1.5 runs on the run line. The RL averages around + 110 with + 115 at BetMGM. As for Game 2 of the doubleheader, I would pass on the Cards if they were to win Game 1 as I’d fear they could be content with a split and perhaps rest some players in the nightcap. Now, if they lose, I might be tempted to bet the Cubs in Game 2 based on the anti-swagger theory (Cardinals having a let down if their long winning streak was snapped).

Angels (+ 112) vs. Mariners: Late Thursday night, the Angels held off the Astros 3-2 to snap a six-game losing streak. That makes them a swagger play in tonight’s home game against the Mariners. Most Vegas books didn’t have an overnight line, but Circa Sports has Seattle -122/LA Angels + 112, so I’ll gladly take the Angels as a home dog.

Wake Forest (+ 4) at Virginia: When I gave this out on the VSiN CFB Best Bets page in Point Spread Weekly, we were getting 4 points. The line was down to 3.5 at most books on Thursday night, but I say the money has been on the right side and it’s still playable at anything more than a field goal. Besides, we expect the Demon Deacons to pull the outright upset behind QB Sam Hartman and an offense that didn’t have to show much in limited action in routs of Old Dominion and Norfolk State, but then exploded for a 35-14 rout of Florida State in their ACC opener

 

Good luck today (and every day!).

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