Thursday was another day of catching up on chores and errands in and around the Tuley’s Takes home office (for instance, with the NFL regular season completed, I finally have time to help my wife put all of our Halloween and Christmas decorations in storage).
After all that was done around dinnertime, I settled in to watch our NHL FIrst-Period Overs (aka First-Period Crack), but they ended up less thrilling than the chores as Panthers-Oilers played to a 0-0 scoreless tie at the end of the first period the Avalanche-Kings game only had one goal with the Avs leading 1-0.
It was especially disappointing as I can’t remember the last time I lost money two days in a row since the start of the new year. It’s not a feeling I care to repeat. I’m still trusting the process with these 1P Overs and I plan to play another parlay on Friday, but let’s move to the hardwood for today’s best bet.
But first, let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting action as there were underdog winners to be bad in college and pro basketball, though it wasn’t a good night for dog bettors in the NHL.
Thursday’s recaps
CBB: No. 9 UCLA escaped with a 63-58 win at Utah late Thursday, but did NOT cover after closing as a 9-point road favorite. Earlier, Indiana upset No. 4 Purdue 68-65 as a 4-point home dog and + 160 on the money line.
NBA: Dogs went 2-1 SU and ATS on a small Thursday slate led by the Pacers' 121-117 upset of the Warriors as a 16-point road dog and + 850 on the money line with a high of + 1050 at Station Casinos. The Pelicans (+ 3.5) also upset the Knicks 102-91. The Suns (-2) covered in their 109-101 win at the Mavericks. Unders went 2-1.
NHL: Faves went 8-1 on Thursday with the lone upset by the Blue Jackets (+ 100 in 2-1 win at the Flyers). The Penguins, Stars, Bruins, Predators, Panthers, Avalanche, Golden Knights and Kraken all won as faves. Overs went 5-4.
Friday’s Takes (including NFL for Saturday/Sunday)
Bulls + 9.5 at Bucks: I know Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball are out for the Bulls and that’s why this line is so high, but I think it’s been adjusted too high as the Bulls, led by DeMar DeRozan, were able to put it together to beat the Cavaliers in another Eastern Conference marquee game on Wednesday night. I’m not saying I expect them to win outright against the defending champs, but they can at least keep this in single digits. Note: the Bulls + 9.5 line was available overnight at BetMGM but not posted at most other books; we’ll update this post later Friday morning if the line is lower.
For those looking for NHL First-Period Overs (despite 2 straight losing days), the top play for Friday would be the Panthers-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -150. Panthers are 9-1 with 1P Overs in their last 10 games. I’m going to bet it, but just saying that I feel the Bulls are the best bet of the day. If looking to parlay it with something, I’d go with the Penguins-Blue Jackets 1P Over 1.5 -160 as the Blue Jackets are 17-3 in their last 20 while the Penguins – formerly a 1P Under team – have gone Over in their last four.
NFL
For the reasons why I like each pick, see my regular “Tuley’s Takes” column in Point Spread Weekly or the NFL Best Bets file on VSiN.com. In this column, we’re more focused on the timing of our bets and whether to jump in ASAP or to wait for a better number closer to game time.
Bengals + 3.5 at Titans: This line looked pretty solid at 3.5, though some square shops might go to 4 if money continues to come in on the Titans with the return of Derrick Henry (the public also loves a team with extra rest off a bye). Basically, know the books you have access to and whether it’s worth it to wait, otherwise just make sure you get that hook.
49ers + 6 at Packers: This line is back down to 5.5 at most books with the 49ers’ injured starters (QB Jimmy Garoppolo, DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner) trending toward being able to play. If you missed the + 6, there’s a decent chance it comes back when the public gets more involved as we hit the weekend.
Two-team, 6-point teaser on Rams + 9/Bills + 8: In Sunday’s doubleheader, I like the Bills better than the Rams as far as underdogs, but I love them together in this teaser. Some books have already dropped the Buccaneers to -2.5, but that’s OK to tease the Rams up to + 8.5. With the Chiefs still hovering between -1.5 and -2.5, the Bills are in prime teaser territory up to + 7.5 through + 8.5.
Good luck today (and every day!).