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Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recaps, Friday best bet (9-17)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Walker_Buehler

After such a wild NFL Week 1, we didn’t certainly expect Thursday Night Football to live up to the hype. Of course, there was no hype to speak of with the Washington Football Team hosting the New York Football Giants, except that we had pro football on a weeknight.

I lost my Washington -3/New York + 3.5 bet with the game failing to land right on the key number of 3 in the Football Team's 30-29 victory, but I certainly feel like it was a great bet (we just lost the vig) as the game basically turned into a field-goal-kicking contest with five FGs in the fourth quarter.

The result was better with the Padres beating the Giants 7-4 as + 165 road underdogs as an anti-swagger play as we faded the Giants the game after their 9-game winning streak was snapped. I guess that makes us 4-2 since this column started for a net profit of 4.55 units thanks to underdog wins by the Raiders on Monday, the Giants on the run line on Monday and Tuesday and the Padres last night. The only losses have been on the Orioles at + 165 on Wednesday night against the Yankees (when we actually had the lead heading to the top of the ninth inning) and the 0.1-unit loss on the Washington -3/NY Giants play on Thursday night.

Let’s get to the general recaps:

Wednesday’s betting recaps

NFL (from Twitter @ViewFromVegas): Washington Football Team beat New York Giants 30-29 Thursday night on Dustin Hopkins' 43-yard FG as time expired to kick off NFL Week 2. The Football Team did NOT cover after closing as a 4-point home favorite. The game went Over the betting total of 41 points midway through the fourth quarter and then exceeded it by 19 points. 

More on NFL: Underdogs improved to 13-4 ATS this season. Despite fans being back in the stands and the supposed return of home-field advantage, home & road teams are only tied 8-8 SU while road teams are off to a 10-6 ATS start (note: these stats are one game short of the faves/dogs and the Over/Unders because of the Green Bay-New Orleans game being held in Jacksonville, Fla., in Week 1). Unders dipped to 9-8 on the season, but Overs are off to a 4-0 start in prime-time games (Thursday, Saturday and Monday night games).

MLB: Favorites went 5-3 on Thursday. The biggest upsets were by the Orioles ( 200 vs. Yankees) & Padres ( 165 at Giants, who lost 2nd straight after their 9-game win streak...cha-ching for anti-swagger bettors!). Faves lead 1,258-864 (59.3%) on the season w/ 51 games closing pick-’em. Over/Unders split 4-4 on Thursday. Unders hold slim lead on the season at 1,036-1,033-98 (50.1%)

Friday’s Take

Parlay Dodgers (-1.5 -110) with White Sox (-1.5 -130) for a profit of 2.38 units: Very few MLB teams are streaking right now. The only teams on winning or losing streaks of more than three games are the Dodgers (winners of six in a row) and Cardinals (five straight wins). So, for Friday’s baseball play, let’s just risk 1 unit on a chalk parlay with the Dodgers, who are starting Walker Buehler (14-3, 2.32 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) at the Cincinnati Reds with the White Sox, who are in a money-making role from earlier in the year as they’re facing a left-handed starter in Texas’ Taylor Hearn. We get a nice payoff of 2.38 units if both cover the run line.

Note: I’m passing on both home underdogs in college football on Friday night. I took Louisville + 7 vs. Central Florida on the VSiN CFB Consensus page in this week’s Point Spread Weekly, but the line is mostly down to 6.5. I certainly don’t recommend buying the half-point just to protect against a push. 

Good luck today (and every day!).

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