Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recaps, Friday ALCS bet plus weekend football picks (10-15)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Thursday was a pretty thrilling day here in the Tuley’s Takes home office: Thursday Night Football, a Game 5 in the MLB playoffs, a nine-game NHL card, two college football games and some NBA preseason action if you’re into that kind of thing.

The Buccaneers  were in complete control against the Eagles but ended up not covering as 7-point favorites in a 28-22 victory (see recap below). But that's fine for our purposes here and in Point Spread Weekly as we started NFL Week 6 with teasers on the Buccaneers -1 tied with some games on Sunday (see the “takes” section below for the teams we’re teasing the rest of the weekend).

We also had a right-side winner with our pick on the Under 6.5 in the Dodgers’ 2-1 win over the Giants (moved to Under 7 with the Dodgers’ pitching change, but the Under was the way to go at any number) and an easy winner. We did lose in college football with Georgia Southern and Navy, but it was still a great night.

Let’s get to the general betting recap from last night, and then look forward to the weekend, starting with Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday and then update our football bets for the weekend.

Thursday’s recaps

NFL: Buccaneers held on to beat the Eagles 28-22 on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 6. The Bucs ended up not covering as 7-point road favorites due to the Eagles converting a 2-point conversion after their last TD to cut the lead from 8 points to 6. The game stayed just Under the betting total of 53 points as the Buccaneers were in FG range on their clinching drive but ended the game with three kneel-downs. Faves improved to 48-31 SU on the season (2 pick-'ems) with the Bucs' win, but underdogs improved to 45-34 ATS (57 percent) with the Eagles' cover. Road teams lead 42-37 SU with 2 neutral-site games and 44-35 ATS (55.7 percent). Unders improved to 44-37 (54.3 percent). Primetime Overs dipped to 10-6 after starting 6-0 and 8-1, so primetime Unders are on a 5-2 run.

MLB: Dodgers beat Giants 2-1 in decisive Game 5 of their National League Division Series. The Dodgers closed as short -102 road underdogs and the game stayed Under the betting total of 7 runs. With the dog/road/Under result, faves finished 12-5 in the LDS round while home teams dipped to 11-6 in the round and Overs dipped to 9-8. If you want to include wild-card games, faves are 13-6 overall in the playoffs, home teams are aso 13-6 and Over/Unders have split 9-9-1.

NHL: Underdogs went 5-4 on Thursday, including the Kraken (+ 105 road underdogs) beating the Predators 4-3 for the first victory in franchise history. The biggest upset of the night was by the Senators (+ 150 home dogs) in 3-2 win vs. Maple Leafs. Overs went 7-2 on Thursday and lead 9-5-2 after the first three days of the season.

CFB: South Alabama (-2.5) routed Georgia Southern 41-14 (game went Over 49 points) and Memphis (-11) routed Navy 35-17 (game stayed Under 55.5 points) as both home favorites covered the spread.

Friday’s Takes

Red Sox + 125 at Astros: I like the Astros in the series, but I don’t think they should be priced this high. The Red Sox, who many thought were going to start Nathan Eovaldi in Game 1, announced that Chris Sale would get the start. These teams are pretty even overall and I wouldn’t be surprised if the series goes the full seven games. The Astros average an MLB-best 5.39 runs per game, but the Red Sox are No. 4 at 5.16. Sale has struggled at times since returning from Tommy John surgery, but manager Alex Cora obviously believes he’s able to handle this assignment with his experience. Even if Sale doesn’t last long, the Red Sox have a fresh bullpen to pick up the slack. Either way, the Red Sox should be close the whole way (I would recommend the + 1.5 run line, but you have to lay around -160).

And here’s our college and pro football plays from Point Spread Weekly. For the reasoning behind why I like these plays, check out PSW. We’ll update these the rest of the week:

Virginia Tech + 5 vs. Pittsburgh: Number looking pretty solid; wouldn’t take fewer than 4.5 points.

Northwestern + 2 vs. Rutgers: Some books outside Vegas have gone to added juice on Rutgers -2, so wait to see if we can get Northwestern + 2.5 or 3.

TCU + 13.5 at Oklahoma: Wait to see if we can get 14 points, though 13.5 should be good enough.

Auburn + 4 at Arkansas: Also wait to see if it goes higher.

Jaguars + 3 vs. Dolphins in London: We hope you grabbed the + 3.5 the other day when we recommended it, but should still be fine at + 3. The Jags are also playable in teasers, and I’d tie them with your choice of Chiefs -1 at Washington (several books down to Chiefs -6.5, so you can now tease down to -0.5), Panthers + 7 vs. Vikings, Chargers + 9 at Ravens and Cardinals + 8.5 at Browns (many books up to Browns -3, so you can tease the Cards up to 9).

Texans + 10 at Colts: Some books have gone to 10.5, so grab that if you can, especially as I’ve seen some books at 9.5.

Bears + 4.5 vs. Packers: I’ve gone back and forth on this game (didn’t include in my five plays on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page in PSW), but with line steaming up to 5.5 at several books, I’m liking it more and waiting to see if we get + 6.

Chargers + 3 at Ravens: Grab the + 3 at if you can, though most books have dipped to 2.5. Still, the Chargers are playable in 6-point teasers as you get + 8.5.

Giants + 10.5 vs. Rams: I picked this in Point Spread Weekly, assuming Mike Glennon was going to have to start for the Giants. Reports are saying that Daniel Jones might clear concussion protocol in time and be able to play, so the line has dipped to 9.5. I prefer if he does play and would still bet it at + 8.5 or higher.

Raiders + 4 at  Broncos: The 4’s appeared the other day and disappeared just as quickly. Still a play at 3.5.

Seahawks + 5 at Steelers: Looking pretty solid.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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