Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recap, updated betting stats, Friday picks 4/22

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Thursday was another mixed plate for yours truly in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we had a lot of day baseball and juggled that more weekday errands (the other day, a reader joked on Twitter that he had at Over 1.5 errands and lost because I only mentioned getting an oil change – but does anyone want me to bore you of the details of my daily life, such as Thursday when I was changing light bulbs and testing batteries that were setting off our smoke detectors?). But, hey, if people are betting on it, I will LOL!

As for the real wagering, we scored again with our Best Bet of the day with the Mavericks + 7 as they upset the Jazz outright at 126-118. We know it was a contrarian play with Luka Doncic still out (we even went against the zig-zag theory), but we were amazed people were cutting in line to lay the points with the Jazz as they closed -8.5. But, hey, we bet it again! Anyway, that improved our record to 44-23-1 ATS (65.7 percent) with our top play of the day the past 68 days.

The rest of the day was a mixed bag as we went 1-2 with our MLB underdogs, winning with the Tigers + 150 against the Yankees but losing with the Royals and Cardinals. We also split with our NHL 1P Overs as the Red Wings-Panthers scored not only 2, not only 3, but 4 goals to easily cash but the Sabres-Devils lost as they went scoreless in the opening 20 minutes.

Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting action and try to keep the good times rolling with our Best Bet of the day and improve our secondary selections.

Thursday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 2-1 SU and ATS with the upset by the Mavericks (+ 8.5) in 126-118 win at Jazz to take 2-1 series lead. The game flew Over the betting total of 208. The Grizzlies (-2.5 and as high as 35-1 in-play) rallied twice to beat Timberwolves 104-95 and to take 2-1 series lead. The game stayed Under 237. The Warriors (-2.5) beat Nuggets 118-113 to take 3-0 lead. That game went Over 222.5.

More NBA: Faves went 2-1 SU and ATS Thursday and now lead 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS (65 percent) in 1st round. Home teams went 0-3 SU and ATS, dipping to 12-8 SU and 10-10 ATS. The zig-zag went 0-3 ATS with losses by the Timberwolves, Jazz and Nuggets, dropping to 4-8 ATS so far (4-4 in Game 2s, 0-4 in Game 3s). Overs went 2-1, but Unders still lead 11-9.

MLB: Faves/dogs split 5-5 with upsets by the Tigers (+ 150 in 3-0 win vs. Yankees), Pirates (+ 142 in 4-3 win at Cubs), Indians (+ 135 in 6-3 win vs. White Sox), Diamondbacks (+ 118 in 4-3 win at Nationals) and Rangers (+ 115 in 8-6 win at Mariners). Unders went 6-3-1 with the push in Mets’ 6-2 win vs, the Giants with a betting total of 8 runs.

More MLB: Faves/dogs split 5-5 Thursday, but faves still 117-73 SU (61.6 percent) on young season with 2 pick-'ems. Home/road also split 5-5 Thursday, but home teams still lead 103-89 over road teams, which led 65-63 just 5 days ago. Unders went 6-3-1 to improve to 108-73-11 (59.7 percent).

NHL: Faves went 9-2 with all 9 winning favorites also all covering the -1.5 puck line. The upsets were by the Sabres (+ 120 in 5-2 win at the Devils) and Flyers (+ 120 in 6-3 win at the Canadiens). Overs went 5-4-2 with pushes in Red Wings-Panthers (7) and Stars-Flames (6).

Friday’s Takes

Hawks + 1.5 vs. Heat: We lost with the Hawks as a zig-zag play in Game 2 when they were right there to at least cover + 8 until Jimmy Butler went crazy. They now return home and we’ll take them again in this role. Note: we made the right call to pass on the Raptors and Nuggets when they were down 0-2 and returning home (as well as the Timberwolves returning home trailing 1-1), but we like the Hawks better as they were much better at home (27-14 SU) all season. I’m passing on the other two Friday games.

Panthers-Generals Under 41: We went 3-1 with Unders in the USFL’s opening weekend and believe the books haven’t adjusted low enough, so as we wrote in Point Spread Weekly, we’re going with all 4 Unders again this weekend. The market has been betting these down, so I would bet ASAP.

MLB underdogs: We lost overall on Thursday with our dogs, but at least showed signs of life by cashing with the Tigers + 150 vs. the Yankees. We don’t like the Tigers in their role as favorites vs. the Rockies today, but our recommended plays are the Blue Jays + 150 at the Astros and Padres + 150 vs. the Dodgers, so we need just one to show a profit on the day.

NHL 1P Overs: We really should have been parlaying some chalk recently in the NHL as these teams playing for playoff positions have really been crushing the also-rans no matter the price (listen to my VSiN colleague Scott Seidenberg on “The Lookahead” archive for a great rundown of upcoming games this weekend). For those still looking to play 1P Overs, Senators-Blue Jackets and Avalanche-Oilers are the best options for Friday (possibly Capitals-Coyotes if you’re counting on the Capitals to score the goals).

Good luck today (and every day!).



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