Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recap, updated ATS stats, Friday Best Bets 5/27

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 27, 2022 05:21 AM

Thursday was another day of running errands in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office. It started early as I was up at 6:30 am. PT when the Nevada Gaming Control Board released its gaming figures for the month of April. You can read my report HERE

We had a long wait for our Best Bet of the day with the Mavericks + 7 at the Warriors. It didn’t feel worth it as the Mavs trailed throughout, though they did go on a 15-2 run in the third quarter to get close to covering, but fell short in a 120-110 loss.

The silver lining is we went 3-1 with our MLB dogs as we lost with the White Sox -110 vs. the Red Sox but won with the Royals + 160 at the Twins, Brewers + 108 at the Cardinals and Rangers + 110 at the A’s.

Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting results and try to do better with our sifting through our picks for the Best Bet.

Thursday’s recaps

NBA: Warriors beat the Mavericks 120-110 Thursday night to clinch the Western Conference Finals 4-1. The ViewFromVegas is they also covered as 6.5-point home favorites (game went Over the betting total of 215). Warriors won in the zig-zag role as they had lost Game 4 in Dallas.

More NBA: Faves improved to 7-3 SU and ATS this round and 53-26 SU and 46-33 ATS (58.2 percent) overall. Home teams now 6-4 SU and ATS, 49-30 SU overall and slightly profitable at 42-37 ATS (53.2 percent). The zig-zag is now 5-3 ATS this round, 35-30 ATS overall. Overs 6-4 this round while Unders dipped to 47-32 (59.4 percent) overall.

NHL: Oilers (+ 135) beat the Flames 5-4 in OT late Thursday to clinch their 2nd-round series 4-1 (went Over the betting total of 6.5 goals). Earlier, the Hurricanes (-160) beat the Rangers 3-1 to take a 3-2 lead in their series (stayed Under 5.5). Faves/dogs, home/road and Over/Unders all split 1-1.

More NHL: Faves lead 12-7 this round and lead 45-25 overall. Home teams now 11-8 in round, 43-27 overall. The zig-zag split 1-1 with the win by the Hurricanes and loss by the Flames and is just 4-7 this round but still leads 30-28 overall. Unders lead 12-7 in this round while Overs lead 38-30-2 (55.9 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves went 6-5 Thursday with upsets by the Royals (+ 167 in 3-2 win at Twins), Blue Jays (+ 146 in  6-3 win at Angels), Brewers (+ 107 in 4-3 win at Cards), Rangers (+ 104 in 4-1 win at A's) and Reds (-102 in 20-5 rout vs. Cubs). Road teams went 8-3. Overs went 6-4-1 with the push in the Tigers’ 4-3 win vs. Guardians with a betting total of 7 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 397-253 SU (61.1 percent) on the season with 14 games closing pick-’em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves are still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 339-325 (51.1 percent, usually closer to 54 percent). Unders dipped to 336-293-35 (53.4 percent), way down from 60 percent a month ago.

Friday’s Takes

Heat + 9 at Celtics: I was already on record with this play in yesterday’s column and the line is mostly down to 8.5. Sharp money has been right most of this series and hopefully this is another case. A lot of people are writing off the Heat (who obviously still have a lot of injury concerns), but even as they were cold shooting in Game 5 on Wednesday, it was still a close game until late in the third quarter. People are talking like it was a lopsided win by the Celtics, but it was just 93-80 and could have gone either way. This is an overadjustment and I’ve already predicted that either the Thursday or Friday game would be the first since May 9 and 20 games since a dog has covered in a SU loss and I’m sticking to that prediction as we have to have a competitive game sometime, right? The Heat should put up a fight.

Royals + 160 at Twins: Even though we were leery of backing the Royals, who were on a 7-game losing streak, yesterday against the Twins, who were in an anti-swagger spot after having their 6-game winning streak snapped, they came through. And as I also posted yesterday, the Royals are now in a swagger spot after their victory, so we’re taking the + 160 price. In addition, this is overpriced with Minnesota’s Bailey Ober (1-1, Twins are 4-1 in his starts) vs. KC’s Brad Keller (1-4, Royals are 3-5 in his starts). However, Keller’s WHIP is 1.03 compared to Ober’s 1.14 so this should be closer to pick-’em.

Good luck today (and every day!).



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