Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recap, updated ATS stats, Friday best bets 4/29

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Thursday was a looooong day in the Tuley’s Takes home office that actually started extra early as we filed yesterday’s column around 4 a.m. PT, then got up at 6:30 a.m. PT to Tweet out the Nevada sports betting figures for March. It basically ends now with the posting of Friday’s column after help recap the NFL Draft betting results (see my VSiN colleague Josh Appelbaum’s wrap-up at VSiN.com).

In between, it was a frustrating day with our sports bets. We should have bet more draft props!

Anyway, we lost our Best Bet on the Pelicans + 2 vs. Suns (that’s what we posted and had to grade against for our purposes here, though I was able to get + 3.5 after it was announced Devin Booker would play for the Suns. Our posted bet was pretty much dead in the closing seconds, though my actual cash wager had a chance to get in the back door with a late 3-pointer in the Suns’ 115-109 win.

That dropped our record to 48-26-1 ATS (64.9 percent) with our top play of the day the past 75 days (nearly 11 weeks). Note: a longtime reader asked how to tell which is my top Best Bet each day. It’s always the first game that I list in the “takes” section at the end of these daily posts (it also matches the photo at the top of the page and on my Twitter promos).

After having such a great day on Wednesday, we gave back most of our profits Thursday as we went 0-3 with our MLB plays (White Sox -1.5 + vs. the Royals, Mariners + 120 at the Rays and Tigers + 130 at the Twins.

Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting action (again, we’ll leave the NFL Draft betting results to Appelbaum and our broadcast colleagues) and then try to get back on the winning track on Friday as we head into another action-packed weekend.

Thursday’s recaps

NBA: Faves (all on road) went 3-0 SU and ATS Thursday night to all clinch their series 4-2. The 76ers (-1) routed the Raptors 132-97 (went Over 209.5), the Suns (-3.5) beat the Pelicans 115-109 (went Over 216.5) and the Mavericks (-1.5) beat the Jazz 98-96 (stayed Under 210.5). Overs went 2-1.

More NBA: Faves improved to 29-13 SU and 23-19 ATS (54.8 percent) in 1st round. Home teams dropped to 24-18 SU while road teams improved to 24-18 ATS (57.1 percent). Zig-zag teams, which went 1-2 ATS with the win by the 76ers and losses by the Pelicans and Jazz, dipped to 16-18 ATS. Unders dropped to 26-16 (61.9 percent). Note: that doesn’t include Unders going 6-0 in the play-in tournament, so they’re actually 32-16 (66.7 percent) if including those games.

MLB: Faves went 11-1 Thursday with Padres-Reds closing pick-'em. The lone upset was by the Royals (+ 152 in 5-2 win at White Sox). Home teams went 8-5. Unders went 7-5-1 with the push in the Royals' 5-2 win at White Sox with a betting total of 7 runs.

More MLB: By going 11-1 with 1 PK, faves improved to 180-104 SU (63.4 percent) on the young season with 3 pick-'ems. Home teams went 8-5 Thursday and lead 152-135 after road teams actually led 65-63 earlier in the season. Unders went 7-5-1 Thursday to stay just below 60 percent at 161-111-15 (59.2 percent).

NHL: Faves went 5-4 with upsets by the Predators (+ 245 in 5-4 win at Avalanche), Blue Jackets (+ 230 in 5-2 win vs. Lightning), Islanders (+ 115 in 5-1 win vs. Capitals) and WIld (-105 in 3-2 win vs. Flames). Home teams went 7-2. Overs went 5-4.

Friday’s Takes

Timberwolves + 1 vs. Grizzlies: We came up just short with the Pelicans on Thursday night, and now we get the Timberwolves in a similar zig-zag role. The Timberwolves stole Game 1 in Memphis, then the Grizzlies rolled in Games 2 and 3 before the T-Wolves evened the series at 2-2 with a win at home and then the Grizzlies took a 3-2 lead at home. There have been times that Minnesota has looked like the better team, so I expect them to come through again at home to force the first round’s lone Game 7.

Canadiens + 1.5 -105 vs. Panthers: We’re going to plug our nose again as we’re backing the NHL’s worst team against the President’s Cup winner. But this is a swagger play as the Canadiens snapped a 9-game losing streak their last time out. Remember we hit with a similarly bad Coyotes team on Wednesday in the swagger role against the Stars. Again, we’re going with the puck line though we remind you that the Coyotes won at + 400 outright. The Canadiens are + 250, so we’ll also make a smaller bet on that. If the swagger angle doesn’t convince you, also note that the Panthers have already clinched home-ice advantage through the playoffs and have nothing to play for.

USFL Unders: In Point Spread Weekly, I wrote that I’m going with the 4 USFL Unders again this weekend as we don’t think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough. Based on how the market bet down all 4 totals last week, we recommend betting these before gameday so that’s why I posted these here on Tuesday: Bandits-Gamblers Under 39, Stallions-Breakers Under 44.5, Maulers-Panthers Under 38.5 and Generals-Stars Under 40.5.

Good luck today (and every day!).



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