Thursday was another day preparing for my middle daughter’s graduation party on Saturday and ended with wins on our two Best Bets of the day.
We stuck to our guns in fading the public with the Under in Game 2 of the NHL’s Western Conference Finals as the Edmonton Oilers didn’t even score as the Colorado Avalanche won 4-0, and then completed the highly successful night in Game 1 of the NBA Finals with the Boston Celtics + 3.5.
It looked like a great play as the Celtics went toe-to-toe with the Warriors in the first half and led 56-54. Then, it didn’t look so good as the Warriors outscored them 38-24 in the third quarter to take a 12-point lead at 92-80; however, the Celtics’ then got hot when it mattered most – including hitting seven straight 3-pointers at one point – to outscore the Warriors 40-16 in the final quarter and flip the script for a 12-point upset at 120-108.
Oilers-Avalanche Under 7 + 120: The public was also on the right side with the Over in Game 1 of this series and we were on the wrong side in the 8-6 win by the Avalanche, but we’re willing to fade the public again, especially with the books adjusting even higher to a betting total of 7 (and it’s being juiced so high that we might be able to get Under 7.5 before gametime).
We were worried because we were pot-committed on the Celtics and heard so many people with us between Sunday and Thursday, but it ended up that we were in our preferred contrarian spot as 73 percent of the bets and 81 percent of the handle at DraftKings (VSiN’s parent company) and all of the TV analysts were all over the Warriors.
Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting results and try to stay on the winning track heading into the weekend.
Celtics rallied to beat Warriors 120-108 on Thursday night in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The ViewFromVegas is the Celtics were 3.5-point road underdogs and + 145 on the money line. The game went Over the betting total of 214 points as the 2 teams set an NBA Finals record with 40 made 3-pointers.
Underdogs and road teams start 1-0 SU and ATS in NBA Finals, while Overs also start 1-0. Faves dipped to 54-28 SU and 47-35 ATS (57.3 percent) overall. Home teams dip to 49-33 SU and 42-40 ATS (51.2 percent) overall. Unders still lead 48-34 (58.5 percent) overall.
Avalanche (-170 home faves) shut out the Oilers 4-0 Thursday to defend home ice and take 2-0 lead in Western Conference Finals. The game stayed well Under the betting total of 7 goals (note: 85 percent of bets were on the Over at DraftKings – VSiN’s parent company – don’t forget to check out the Betting Splits page every day HERE
Faves improved to 2-1 so far in the conference finals round and 49-27 overall. Home teams are off to 3-0 lead this round and lead 47-29 overall. Overs dipped to 2-1 in this round and still lead 42-32-2 (56.8 percent) overall, though Unders led 13-9 in the 2nd round.
Faves went 8-2 Thursday with Cardinals-Cubs and Mariners-Orioles both closing pick-'em (note: the Cardinals and Mariners were the run-line faves if you go by that, and they split 1-1). The only upsets according to our grading were the Tigers (+ 125 in 3-2 win vs. Twins) and Brewers (very small dog at -102 in 5-4 win vs. Padres). Home teams went 9-3. Unders 7-5.
Faves lead 453-293 SU (60.7 percent) on the season with 17 pick-'ems (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves ahead of that pace). Home teams improved to 398-365 (52.2 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders 383-342-38 (52.8 percent), way down from 60 percent just over a month ago.
Rangers + 105 vs. Lightning:
I’m making this our Best Bet of the day for Friday, though it’s not without some trepidation. We love that the Rangers have won seven straight home playoff games and are getting plus-money in tonight’s Game 2. However, we are bucking the trend that the two-time defending champion Lightning have won 19 straight games off a loss. There are a ton of New York fans out there, but we still suspect that the more people are reminded of that trend during the course of the day on Friday that this line could get bet higher and we’ll feel better about fading it.
Maulers-Generals Under 41:
We hope our regular Point Spread Weekly readers saw us pick the Under 43 in this game (as we have it at 38 points) and are behind it getting bet down to 41. I wouldn’t go Under any lower number (note: our other play for USFL Week 8 is Sunday’s Panthers-Stars Under 47.5 or 47 if you want to lock that in now).
We were glad to pass on baseball on Thursday as we only liked the Angels in Game 1 of their doubleheader vs. the Yankees as a dog and they lost (we did mention how we liked the Reds going against the Nationals’ Joan Adon and they won 8-1, so hopefully some of our chalk-betting followers got that win) as faves went 8-2 with 2 PKs. On Friday, we’re just making small plays on the Padres (+ 140) at the Brewers with Musgrove vs. Burnes and Rockies + 160 vs. the Braves. Note: I would normally like the Mets + 140 at the Dodgers with Chris Bassitt on the mound for the Mets, but they’re in an anti-swagger spot after having their 6-game winning streak snapped on Thursday night.
We’re thrilled to win our bet on the Celtics in Game 1 and feeling justified about telling readers to go ahead and take the series price on the Celtics and not wait (as they’re now -180). We have a couple of days with this spread-out NBA Finals not resuming until Sunday, but keeping an eye on the spread as the Warriors are in the zig-zag role as 4-point favorites but it’s likely it’ll get bet higher and will be on the Celtics if it does. But we advise passing for now.
Good luck today (and every day!).