Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recap, Super Bowl lines update, Friday best bets (2/4)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

February 4, 2022 04:16 AM
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Thursday was mostly spent in the Tuley’s Takes home office going over a ton of Super Bowl propositions and shopping around for the best prices. We posted our initial list of props in our regular “Tuley’s Takes” column in Point Spread Weekly and will be also posting some here early next week as well as in the Super Bowl Week issue of PSW.

With the NHL on its All-Star break, the rest of Thursday was spent watching college and pro basketball, and we unfortunately lost our best bet of the day on UCLA + 7 at Arizona. The Bruins stayed within striking distance most of the game but they just weren’t able to hold off the Wildcats down the stretch.

There aren’t any Top 25 teams in action on Friday, but I have two CBB plays and one in the NBA. I couldn’t really decide between them, so I feel it’s best to play all three. In the words of the late, great Meat Loaf, two out of three ain’t bad, so we make a profit if we go 2-1. We’ll probably also try a three-team parlay (about 0.4 units) in case we go 3-0 so that we would profit around 5.4 units. If we go 2-1, we profit around half a unit. If we go 1-2, we lose around 1.6 units.

But let’s first recap the rest of Thursday’s betting action, including our late-night update of the Super Bowl side and total.

Thursday’s recaps

NBA: Clippers beat Lakers 111-110 late Thursday on Reggie Jackson's late bucket (and Anthony Davis' miss at buzzer), but they did NOT cover as 3.5-point home favorites. The game went Over 219 on Jackson’s game-winner. Faves went 5-1 SU but faves/dogs split 3-3 ATS as Kings (+ 14 at Warriors) also covered in a SU loss. The lone upset was by the Hawks (+ 3 vs. Suns). Overs 5-1.

CBB: No. 19 USC held off Arizona State 58-53 late Thursday, but did NOT cover as 5.5-point road favorite. No. 7 Arizona beat No. 3 UCLA 76-66, but it was NOT an upset as the Wildcats covered as 7-point home faves. No. 2 Gonzaga (-23) covered in 92-62 rout of San Diego.

Super Bowl odds update (10:15 p.m. PT Thursday): Rams continue to be 4.5-point favorites vs. the Bengals at nearly all Las Vegas books with the notable expectation of Treasure Island dealing Rams -4 but dropping from -130 to -120 (and Bengals now %pluussign% 4 + 100). Over/Under has settled at 48.5.

Friday’s Takes

Cavaliers + 4.5 at Hornets: The Cavaliers were the biggest early surprise of the season and we cashed on them several times. We’ve backed off a lot lately as oddsmakers have caught up to them overall and they’ve been favored too often for our liking, but this looks like a good spot to get them as road underdogs.

Creighton + 6.5 at Seton Hall: Both teams are 13-7 and have similar stats overall, so this really comes down to the fact (or at least my belief in my own line) that this should be much closer to pick-’em. I get that Seton Hall (8-3 SU at home this season) should get a few points for home-field advantage, but not this much, especially as they’ve failed to cover their last 4 home games.

San Diego State + 3 at Colorado State: The Rams are 16-3 SU and 10-1 SU at home, so I get them being favored here, but I have San Diego State as the better team even though the Aztecs are 12-5. The oddsmakers are kinda telling you that with the number this low. SDSU won the first meeting this season, 79-49, so it’ll take a lot of CSU to turn the tables that much 

Good luck today (and every day!).

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