Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recap, MLB stats, Friday picks in NBA, MLB, NHL 4/15

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

April 15, 2022 05:08 AM
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Thursday was spent again with my son, Maddux (named after Greg Maddux, by the way), in Southern California and then traveling back to the Tuley’s Takes home office in North Las Vegas.

Unfortunately, we were back over the state border in time to lose my top play in yesterday’s column on the Phillies + 105 at the Marlins as the Phillies fell behind early (so the 1st 5 wasn’t a viable option anyway) and weren’t able to catch up in a 4-3 loss. That dropped our record to 39-21-1 ATS (65 percent) as we continue to see a slight regression in our overall record (we know no one can sustain a 70-percent win rate, but it’s been fun trying). However, if you started following us when we posted we were 14-1-1, we’re still a respectable 25-20 (55.6 percent) since then.

We also lost our top NHL First-Period Over play on the Devils-Avalanche 1P Over 1.5 (-165 DraftKings) as the 2 teams played to a scoreless tie in the opening 20 minutes. At least I was right in suggesting Capitals-Maple Leafs 1P Over 1.5 as as secondary play and also advised passing on the other game with a game total of 6.5, so at least we’re still making a few good selective choices with those play.

Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s betting action and try to get back on the winning track with all our picks.

Thursday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 6-5 Thursday with the upsets by the A's (+ 188 in 6-3 win at Rays), Rangers (+ 130 in 10-5 win vs. Blue Jays), Tigers (+ 119 in 4-2 win at Royals), Cubs (+ 114 in 5-2 win at Rockies) and Padres (-104 in 12-1 rout vs. Braves). Home teams went 7-4 on the day; Unders led 6-5.

More MLB: Faves (6-5 on Thursday) lead 57-40 SU on the young season with 1 game closing pick-’em. Home teams (7-4 on Thursday) have caught road teams again and they’re back to .500 at 49-49. In totals wagering, Unders (6-5 on Thursday) lead 54-37-7 (59.3 percent), still thanks mostly to going 13-1-1 last Saturday.

NHL: Faves went 7-5 with the upsets by the Red Wings (+ 300 in 3-0 win at Hurricanes), Senators (+ 238 in 3-2 win at Bruins), Golden Knights (+ 150 in 6-1 win at Flames), Oilers (+ 100 in 4-0 win at Predators) and Blackhawks (+ 100 in 5-4 win vs. Sharks). Overs also went 7-5.

Friday’s Takes

Pelicans + 4 at Clippers: This is mostly 4, but the Westgate was offering + 4.5 early Friday morning, so wait and shop around for the best number. The Clippers are playing better with Paul George, but I feel this is too many points to be giving this Pelicans team. I like this dog’s chances to cover better than the Cavaliers getting 2.5 as a home dog vs. Trae Young and the Cavs. The Clippers won the most recent with George back in the lineup, but the Pelicans won the prior three meetings this year. It’s not surprising that the public is jumping on the Clippers, but the Pelicans should be in the game the whole way and hopefully cover the inflated spread if not win outright.

MLB underdogs: The NBA is the main focus on Friday, but here’s the dogs I’m looking at on the full MLB slate: Cardinals + 140 at Brewers, Tigers + 118 at Royals and Phillies + 102 at Marlins again (also looking at 1st 5 Innings plays to shorten the games).

Jets-Panthers 1P Over 1.5 (-160 BetMGM/-195 DraftKings): Just 1 small straight play on this matchup as these plays have been cooling off lately, but I’m trusting the Panthers who have been very good to us this season.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 
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