Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday recap, Friday best bet, NFL wild-card picks (1/14)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 14, 2022 03:14 AM
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We still miss football on Thursday nights, but it was still a fun night of sports betting action last night with basketball and hockey.

We won our best bet on Rangers-Sharks First-Period Under -1.5 -110 as the Rangers scored midway through the opening stanza but held on until the end of the period with just a 1-0 lead to get us the cash. Our secondary play didn’t work as well as the Blue Jackets also scored almost halfway into the first period but were unable to score again to only lead 1-0 and lose our First-Period Over 1.5 first leg of a parlay we were using to the Rangers-Sharks 1P Under. To add insult to our wallet’s injury, the Blue Jackets went on to win 6-0. Why couldn’t they score 2 goals in each period to help us out? Oh, well, we move on…

Let’s recap all of Thursday’s major betting results and then try to find another best-bet winner for Friday, plus we’ll update our NFL wild-card weekend best bets from Point Spread Weekly.

Thursday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 4-1 SU and ATS with the only upset by the Thunder (+ 5.5 in 130-109 rout of the Nets, one day after the Nets' much-ballyhooed rout of the Bulls). Grizzlies (-3) beat Timberwolves 116-108 for their 11th straight win. Bucks (-1) beat Warriors 118-99 in another marquee game. Unders went 3-2.

CBB: No. 5 USC escaped with a 81-71 win vs. Oregon State late Thursday night after having to rally from a 10-point, 2nd-half deficit, but did NOT cover as a 14.5-point home favorite. No. 3 UCLA wasn't as lucky in an 84-81 OT home loss to Oregon (+ 10, + 405 on the money line). 

NHL: Faves went 7-4 with upsets by the Blue Jackets (+ 235 in 6-0 shutout at the Hurricanes), Sabres (+ 290 in 4-1 win at the Predators), Senators (+ 230 in 4-1 win at the Flames) and Kings (+ 130 in 6-2 win vs. the Penguins). Unders went 8-2-1 with the push on the Blue Jackets-Hurricanes (6).

Friday’s Takes (including NFL wild-cards)

Parlay Stars-Panthers First-Period Over 1.5 -165/Coyotes-Avalanche First-Period Over 1.5 -195: After cashing with the 1P Under last night, let’s return to our preferred 1P Overs. We love these two plays as both have game totals of 6.5, so we’ve always maintained that makes the 1P Over 1.5 an even stronger play, but the catch here is that you’re going to see a lot of books moving the 1P Overs to 2 goals instead of 1.5. The good news in those cases is they’re at plus-money or even-money, but the downside is if there’s exactly 2 goals in the first period, you’re stuck with a push instead of a win, so this is going to take some line-shopping to get the lines you want, so good luck with that.

We’re sticking with these because the Panthers are 24-12 with 1P Overs, including 6 straight and 13-3 in their last 16 games while the Avalanche are the main reason in the nightcap at 24-9 with 1P Overs including 5 straight and 19-5 in the last 24 games, plus the Coyotes are 20-14 with 1P Overs, so I would call this the overall best bet if asked to make a choice.

Not all books have 1P Over/Unders posted overnight, but for our purposes DraftKings (for those in states where they operate) has Stars-Panthers First-Period Over 1.5 -165 and Coyotes/Avalanche First-Period Over 1.5 -195, which is our official best bet and would pay around + 143 or odds of 7-5. An example of 2-puck lines is at William Hill with Stars-Panthers First-Period Over 2 + 105 and Coyotes-Avalanche First-Period Over 2 + 100. Just remember that if you push on one bet, the overall parlay would reduce to a straight bet on the other.

NFL

Note: for reasons on why I like these plays, check out the regular “Tuley’s Takes” in PSW or the NFL Best Bets column at VSiN.com as we’re mostly concerned here with timing when to make our bets.

Raiders-Bengals Under 49: There are reports of inclement weather, so I think anyone following me should grab Under 49 ASAP.

Patriots + 4 at Bills: Some books have been at 4.5 and I know some people might be waiting to see if they come back, but I think it’s more important to avoid missing out on + 4 in case the line dips to 3.5.

Buccaneers teased from -8.5 to -2.5 vs. Eagles: Obviously if you have a book that’s dealing Bucs -8 and can tease down to -2, that’s even better. My preferred two-team, 6-point teaser of the weekend is the Bucs -2.5/49ers + 9.

49ers + 3 at Cowboys: In addition to betting the 49ers in teasers as mentioned above, I’m also waiting to see if this goes to + 3.5 for my straight bets. Many books have gone to Cowboys -3 -115 or -120, so we’re holding out hope here in Vegas. (For those in states with DraftKings, you can already get 49ers + 3.5 -115.)

Steelers + 12.5 at Chiefs: This line has stayed pretty solid, but I still think we can wait to see if we can get + 13 or better.

Cardinals + 4 at Rams: I think the time to take the 4 is now. We’re seeing some indications this could dip to 3.5.

 

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