Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday betting recaps, updated MLB stats, Friday picks 7/29

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Thursday was another long day as I’m still far away from the Tuley’s Takes home office.

I had to wake up early in my Reno hotel room as the Nevada Gaming Control Board released its gaming figures for the month of June and I also had to get ready for my daughter Peyton’s orientation at the University of Nevada-Reno. In case you missed my story on the VSiN.com website, it was kind of a “dog bites man” story (hopefully you know what that means) in that Nevada didn’t set any records in the relatively slow sports betting month and ranks third among states that have released their June figures behind New York and New Jersey and will probably be fourth again after Illinois comes up with its numbers in another week or so.

I then spent way more time than I intended at the orientation, attending parents’ sessions on financial aid, etc., before I bailed on buffet-style pasta dinner and went and got me some crab legs at a local restaurant!

I checked out some Reno sportsbooks while watching my bets come in. We pushed again with my Best Bet of the day as the Mariners were tied 2-2 with the Astros after 5 innings to push my Mariners 1st 5 + 115 wager, but then we paid for dinner and darn near the whole trip as our secondary play on the Rangers 1st 5 + 210 and Rangers full-game ML + 195 vs. the Angels/Ohtani. Even though Ohtani pitched great, he again got no run support and the Rangers led 2-0 after the 1st 5 innings and held on to win the game 2-0.

That was also the biggest upset of the night in MLB, so let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s results and look for plays on Friday..

Thursday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 7-3 Thursday with upsets by the Rangers (+ 195 in 2-0 win at Angels), Marlins (+ 118 in 7-6 win at Reds) and Red Sox (+ 115 in 4-2 win vs. Guardians). Home teams went 6-4. Unders went 7-3.

More MLB: Faves lead 874-587 SU (59.8 percent) on the season with 24 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace, but gap has been narrowing as they’re back below 60 percent). Home teams lead 779-706 (52.5 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 731-682-70 (51.7 percent).

Friday’s Takes

Marlins 1st 5 + 115 vs. Mets: We’re counting on Miami’s Sandy Alcantara (9-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) to make his customary quality start and have the Marlins in this game early. The Mets’ bullpen is stronger, so I’m not going to make a game bet on them, just the 1st 5. And after last night’s success with the Rangers, let’s go with another big dog as the A’s 1st 5 are + 155 at the White Sox and + 180 for the game. As I’ve written before, Oakland’s James Kapriellan isn’t as bad as his season-long stats indicate; in fact, even though he hasn’t had a decision in his last 3 starts, the A’s are 2-1 in those games and he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in those outings.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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