Tuley's Takes Today: Thursday betting recaps; updated MLB stats, Friday best bets 8/5

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Thursday was mostly spent waiting around for the football season to kick off with the Hall of Fame Game. Yes, it’s just an exhibition game, but I still feel like it’s Christmas morning, except instead of waking up and opening presents, we have to wait around all day for the game at night (5 p.m. Vegas Time).

I was on “The Lookahead” on Sunday night with Greg Peterson and gave out the contrarian pick of Over 32.5 because I felt oddsmakers had set the total too low for Josh McDaniels’ first game (albeit the preseason) as head coach of the Raiders, plus I felt the Jaguars’ QBs would have success. As it turned out, the total was bet down to 30.5 at most books as the public jumped all over the Under trends (5 of the last 6 Hall of Fame Games have stayed Under, Unders were 14-3 last year in the HOF Game and NFL Preseason Week 1, etc.). That only made me like it more as we got a better number to go Over, in addition to fading the so-called conventional wisdom out there.

I felt great as the Raiders moved the ball easily on their first two possessions, though they had to settle for Daniel Carlson field goals and a 6-0 lead. That was a little disappointing, but they added two TDs in the second quarter for a 20-0 halftime lead. That meant we needed just 11 points in the second half to go Over 30.5 (13 to go Over 32.5). We only got a Jacksonville FG in the third quarter to make it 20-3 as we were then underdogs to cash; however, the Raiders scored a TD midway through the fourth quarter to go up 27-3 to put us one score short of the Over – and then the Jaguars, led by Kyle Sloter, managed a garbage-time TD against the Raiders’ scrubs to make the final 27-11 and go Over all numbers.

It wasn’t a “we had it all the way” result as it could have gone either way, but we’ll take it as we felt we had the right side most of the way (especially as the Jaguars had a punt return TD that was called back and some other big plays were wiped out by penalties that could have made it an easier Over).

Anyway, a win’s a win and a great way to start football season!

As for my baseball plays, I lost my first play on the Braves 1st 5 vs. the Mets, but came out slightly ahead as the A’s 1st 5 + 105 cashed as they led the Angels 8-4 after the first 5 innings and went on to beat them 8-7.

All in all, a fun day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.

Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more 1st 5 inning opportunities on Friday’s MLB card.

Thursday’s recaps

NFL: Raiders ran over the Jaguars 27-11 in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio, to kick off the NFL preseason. The Raiders easily covered as 2.5-point favorites. The game went Over the closing total of 30.5 points after opening 33.5 at most books as bettors pounded the Under, which was 5-1 in the 6 prior Hall of Fame Games.

MLB: Faves went 8-5 on Thursday with upsets by Rockies (+ 240 in 7-3 win at Padres), Pirates (+ 235 in 5-4 win vs. Brewers), Rangers (+ 132 in 3-2 win vs. White Sox), Royals (+ 126 in 7-3 win vs. Red Sox) and A's (+ 106 in 8-7 win at Angels). Home teams went 7-6. Overs went 7-3-2 with the pushes in the LAD-SF (8) and TB-DET (8) games. Note: the Phillies’ 5-4 rain-shortened win vs. the Nationals landed on the betting total of 9 runs, but was ruled no-action as it was called and ruled official after 4.5 innings. Baseball games must go the full 9 innings (or 8.5 if home team leading) for totals and run lines to be valid for betting purposes.

More MLB: Faves lead 936-622 SU (60.1 percent) on the season with 25 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead just 828-755 (52.3 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 780-726-74 (51.8 percent).

Friday’s Takes

Padres 1st 5 + 125 at Dodgers: I know the Dodgers are tough to fade right now (and maybe we should have learned our lesson with the Giants, who the Dodgers just swept. However, here come the Padres to town with a lot of momentum of their own and I can’t pass up the price (available just at BetMGM overnight but I’m expecting this to be what we see in the morning at most books) while shortening the game to 5 innings for the purposes of your wager. I’ll probably also take the Padres + 140 for the game. For our second play, let’s go with the Pirates 1st 5 + 135 at the Orioles. The Pirates are still below .500 and in their usual role of also-rans, but they’re coming off a sweep of the NL Central-leading Brewers (at least they were in first but are now tied with the Cardinals atop the division) and can certainly hang with the Orioles.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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Follow The Money: Back teams, players and coaches that the market has trouble gauging. Like Heinicke who is 11-1 ATS. View more tips.

Matt Youmans: North Carolina +8 vs Clemson. View more picks.

Wes Reynolds: Purdue +17 vs. Michigan. View more picks.