Thursday was another busy day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.
It started with a morning visit to the doctor’s office to give blood and urine samples for an upcoming checkup. This Thursday was not your typical “dog days of summer” Thursday as we not only had NFL preseason games but the second “Field of Dreams” game in Iowa.
We enjoyed watching our beloved Cubbies win that game while also watching my Best Bet of the day come in on the Patriots + 3 as they lose 23-21 to the Giants but covered vs. the closing spread.
Now, there might be some new readers (and Twitter trolls) that will say “wait, but you lost vs. your posted play of the Patriots + 1.5.” And, yes, that’s true, as I gave that out on “The Lookahead” show on Sunday night and early this week in my columns here and in Point Spread Weekly. But you’ll also note that I also mentioned that the line was moving higher. This is a good lesson to learn so early in the preseason, but this will happen often this year where we’ll give our early pick on a dog but wait until closer to kickoff to get the best line. There are exceptions, but when the public is on the chalk, it’s almost better to wait for them to bet the line higher. One of the main purposes of these daily columns is to point out when that happens.
I was also happy that I pointed out the Ravens’ 20-game preseason SU winning streak for those who wanted to join the bandwagon (note: I didn’t bet it straight, but did add a small parlay on the Patriots + 3 with the Baltimore money line).
My MLB 1st inning bets didn’t fare as well as I lost with both the Tigers in the morning and the Orioles in the afternoon.
Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s (full-game) betting results in MLB and the NFL preseason and look for more 1st 5 inning opportunities on Friday’s MLB card. It’s a fluke of the schedule, but I don’t have any plays on the 5 NFL preseason games Friday
NFL: Giants beat Patriots 23-21 on FG as time expired to kick off Preseason Week 1. TGhe Giants did NOT cover after closing as 3-point road favorites (though early NYG bettors cashed on plus points and up to -1.5 as books got middled). The game went Over the betting total of 34.5 points. The Ravens beat the Titans 23-10 for an NFL preseason record 21st straight win, covering as 3.5-point home faves. The game went Over the consensus closing total of 32 points (opened as high as 34 at several Vegas books). Preseason faves are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS so far. Home teams 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS, not counting neutral-site Hall of Fame Game. Overs are 3-0.
Cubs beat Reds 4-2 as even-money underdogs on the Field of Dreams in heaven (no, Iowa). Faves went 4-3 Thursday with Cardinals-Rockies closing a consensus pick-’em. The other upsets were by the Royals (+ 155 in 5-3 win vs. White Sox) and Marlins (+ 145 in 3-0 win to snap Phillies' 7-game win streak). The Dodgers have MLB’s longest winning streak at games and have covered the -1.5 run line in all 10 games. Home teams went 5-2 Thursday, not counting the neutral-site game. Over/Unders split 4-4.
More MLB: Faves lead 991-657 SU (60.1 percent) on the season with 26 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead 885-788 (53 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 817-771-83 (51.4 percent).
Red Sox 1st 5 innings + 105 vs. Yankees: It’s tough to fade the Yankees, but we expect a great effort from their biggest rival, plus I’ll take Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi (5-3, 1.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) over New York’s Domingo German in the early innings. For our secondary play, I’ll take the Marlins 1st 5 + 125 with Pablo Lopez. Note: also considering Brewers/Lauer 1st 5 + 140 at the Cardinals/Montgomery and Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 105 at Rockies/Senzatela for those looking for more action.
Seahawks + 3 at Steelers:
This is another example of waiting for the best line with an underdog. This line was 3 all week, then the Steelers announced Mitch Trubisky would be starting this game for the Steelers and it went to Seahawks + 3.5. Thank you for the hook! Geno Smith is the incumbent to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle, but we’re hearing that former Bronco Drew Lock is having a good camp, so we could have a motivated backup. If they both see considerable time, I give a considerable edge to the Seahawks. Mitch Trubisky is No. 1 on the Steelers’ depth chart, so we don’t see as much of a QB battle there with Mason Rudolph and rookie Kenny Pickett. For future reference, Seattle’s Pete Carroll (26-17, 60.5 percent) and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin (34-24 ATS, 58.6 percent) are both play-on coaches.
Panthers + 3.5 at Commanders:
Now, this is a case where I gave it out at 3.5 and wish we had locked it in early as the line dropped to Commanders -1 at a lot of books. However, as of early Friday, it’s back to Commanders -3 so it’s heading back up (Circa is at -3 -115). There are rumors that the Panthers are still shopping for a starting QB, but for now I still like the preseason rotation of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Matt Corral and P.J. Walker battling for their spots on the roster so that’s still my recommended play.
Good luck today (and every day!).