Thursday was a looooooong day, staying up late the night before to post “Tuley’s Takes Today” to an early start with the Masters and following that all day, plus MLB opening day lasting past 10 p.m. PT along with NBA and NHL.
And we’re doing it all again today!!!
The best part was following Tiger Woods as our Best Bet of the day was on him shooting Under 74.5 in the first round at Augusta National. Walking the course slow but steady on his surgically repaired legs, he never went above par and ended up with an Under-1 71 to improve our record to 36-17-1 ATS (67.9 percent) the past 54 with our top play of the day.
We officially passed on MLB opening day (though wishing we had bet more dogs as they went 5-2 on Thursday), though personally losing a chalk parlay on the Cardinals (winner), Padres (Bad Beat vs. Diamondbacks on a walkoff HR in the bottom of the 9th) and Angels (loser to Astros, so we were doomed anyway) and a degenerate homer bet on my Cubbies. That reminds me of an old joke: “The Cubs can serve beer at Wrigley Field today – they didn’t lose their opener!!!” (the sad part is that most of my life the joke has usually been in the negative).
We also lost a secondary play on the Magic + 13.5 at the Hornet, split swagger/anti-swagger plays on the Nuggets (winner) and Blue Jackets (loser) that I didn’t bet and went 1-1 with our recommended NHL First-Period Over parlay parlay on Flyers-Blue Jackets 1P Over 1.5 (loser) and Canadiens-Devils 1P Over 1.5 (winner).
When all was said and done, I lost about a ham sandwich (as Jimmy Vaccaro likes to say) thanks to the win on the Tiger prop as my biggest bet of the day. While we’re bummed that we posted more losing suggestions than winners, we’re glad that we continue to make good decisions on finding our top play most days.
Let’s recap the rest of the Thursday betting action and try for a better overall day on Friday as we head into another busy weekend.
Masters: Tiger Woods’ return was the focus of the Masters and he cashed on his first-round prop of Under 74.5 (or 73.5) as he had a 1-Under par 71 to put him in great shape to also cash for those who bet him to make Friday’s cut. Sungjae Im was the first-round leader at the end of Thursday with a 5-under 67, one stroke of Cameron Smith, who had a strange day as he double-bogeyed the first hole, shot an amazing 8-under over the next 16 holes and finished with a double-bogey on the 18th hole for a 4-under 68.
MLB: Dogs went 5-2 with upsets by the Cubs (+ 160 in 5-4 win vs. Brewers), Reds (+ 158 in 6-3 win at Braves), Diamondbacks (+ 124 in 4-2 win vs. Padres), Royals (+ 110 in 3-1 win vs. Guardians) and Astros (+ 110 in 3-1 win at Angels). Unders went 4-2-1 with the push in Brewers-Cubs game with a betting total of 9 runs.
Faves went 6-1 SU but just 4-3 ATS as Celtics (+ 8.5 in 127-121 loss at Bucks) and Spurs (+ 7 in 127-121 loss at Timberwolves) covered in losses; upset by Raptors (+ 3.5 in 119-114 win vs. 76ers). Hornets (-14 vs. Magic), Pelicans (-16.5 vs. Blazers), Nuggets (-3 vs. Grizzlies) and Warriors (-14 vs. Lakers) covered as chalk. Overs went 4-3.
Faves went 7-3 with upsets by the Canadiens (+ 135 in 7-4 win at Devils), Kraken (+ 130 in 2-0 win at Blackhawks) and Flyers (+ 115 in 4-1 win at Blue Jackets). Under went 5-3-2 with pushes in the Canucks' 5-1 win at Coyotes and Flames' 4-2 win at Sharks (both had betting totals of 6 goals).
Tigers 1st 5 Innings + 105 vs. White Sox: The Tigers are my dark horse pick to challenge the White Sox in the AL Central (see my regular “Tuley’s Takes” column in Point Spread Weekly) and draw them on Opening Day for the two teams. Let’s shorten the game to 5 innings and trust Detroit lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to match Lucas Giollito pitch for pitch. We also might take the game price of + 120, but we’ve decided to try our dogs in 1st 5 Inning bets more this season.
Sabres-Panthers 1P Over 1.5 -270 (DraftKings):
This is the standout 1P Over play on Friday’s NHL card with a game total of 7 goals. The Panthers are the No. 1 1P Over team in the league at 49-21 (70 percent) and are also on a 22-6 (78.6 percent) run and we’ve been on them for most of those wins.
No underdogs plays in the NBA (and no swagger/anti-swagger plays either) as it looks chalky as we get closer to wrapping up the regular season. If you’re looking for something, the only thing I can suggest is a chalky ML parlay that pays around even money or -110 as the two hottest teams in the league are the Raptors on a 7-game winning streak and the Heat on a 5-game win streak. The Raptors are around -1250 vs. the Rockets (who are on a 5-game losing streak of their own) and the Heat are -125 vs. the Hawks.
Good luck today (and every day!).