All right, Super Bowl Week is here in the Tuley’s Takes home office and everywhere. Sunday was spent going over more proposition wagers and we wrapped that up with an appearance on “The Opening Lines” with my VSiN colleagues Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel (check it out at the bottom of the second hour if you catch the archive at VSiN.com).
In between, there was the NFL Pro Bowl touch football game, which proved again that when you’re betting these exhibitions that you have to look at the Over first if they’re not going to play any defense. However, I don’t really like making blanket statements like that because a) it sounds square as heck; and b) we still believe you have to take it on a case-by-case basis (for instance, oddsmakers might overadjust in next year’s Pro Bowl based on this year’s result – and the public pounding the Over – and there might actually be value on the Under.
Anyway, my best bets for Sunday weren’t on the Pro Bowl and instead I lost on Maryland and the the L.A. Clippers.
That’s not how I wanted to end the weekend, but let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting action and turn our attention to Monday’s betting card. In addition, I’m going to officially post my Super Bowl pick as we’ve been seeing more signs that the line could be more likely to dip to 4 as opposed to going higher. I’ll add the rest of my Super Bowl picks and props after I finalize them for Point Spread Weekly (though, check last week’s PSW for the general rundown as well as “The Opening Lines” archive for more if you can’t wait).
NBA: Favorites went 7-1 SU and ATS on Sunday (after 6-0 SU and ATS on Saturday for 13-1 SU and ATS over the last 2 days). The lone upset was by the smallest underdog on the card with the Mavericks (+ 1.5) beating the Hawks 103-94. Note: @SportsJoe, a follower of mine on Twitter, pointed out that the Mavericks actually opened as a short fave, so if you go by that, faves are 13-0 SU and ATS the past 2 days. Over/Unders split 4-4.
NFL: AFC held off NFC 41-35 in NFL Pro Bowl at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas for the AFC's record-setting 5th-straight win. The AFC also covered after closing as a 2-point favorite. The game went Over the betting total of 65 points. As I mentioned on Twitter @ViewFromVegas, it’s hard to stay Under when there’s little defense being played – and then on the rare stops, they added to the scoring with 3 defensive TDs (as then the offensive players didn’t tackle or even get close to tackling).
CBB: Three Top 25 teams were in action on Sunday and No. 6 Houston (-6.5 in 80-58 win at Cincinnati), No. 15 Providence (-6 in 71-52 win at Georgetown) and No. 16 Ohio State (-9.5 in 82-67 win vs. Maryland) all won and covered.
Super Bowl odds update (10 p.m. PT Sunday): Rams continue to be 4.5-point favorites vs. the Bengals in Las Vegas. Treasure Island is still the only book at Rams -4 (-125) as of late Sunday night, but we've seen some more indications the line could drop, especially with some movement offshore as well as at books in other states. The Over/Under is still a solid 48.5 in Vegas.
Arizona State + 13 vs. Arizona: Arizona has emerged as the class of the Pac-12, however, the Wildcats only beat the Sun Devils, their big in-state rival, 67-56 a week ago Saturday as 21.5-point home favorites in Tucson. Then, last week, ASU continued the momentum by covering in a home loss vs. USC and then upset UCLA 87-87 in OT this past Saturday night at home. Now, the Sun Devils get a rematch at home and are still getting 13 points. We’ll take it.
Devils-Senators goal in first 10 minutes: Don’t forget the Devils are on a 16-game winning streak with this prop if you want to join the fun. However, beware as books have been juicing the “yes” around -200, so bet early and shop around for the lowest vig you can get. But as we’re sure Pauly Howard will say on “Follow the Money,” you don’t pay the juice if you’re winning.”
Bengals + 4.5 vs. Rams: This Super Bowl might not be like past games where the favorite drew most of the betting action on the spread while the dog was more popular on the money line. We’ve been hearing reports of books writing 70 percent of their tickets on the Bengals at 4.5. We’ve seen some Vegas shops dip to Rams -4 and even more offshore, so I’m thinking this is more likely to dip to 4 as opposed to going higher. Now, it’s still possible that as we get closer to gameday that the money does come in on the favored Rams – especially here in Vegas from our California neighbors driving over for our parties and betting action, but it’s no guarantee. We prefer to lock in our Bengals + 4.5 wager now and concentrate on the overflowing menus of prop bets.
Good luck today (and every day!).