Tuley’s Takes Today is back as we recap the previous day’s betting results and try to use lessons learned to make bets moving forward.
This column ran for 289 straight days from the morning after the opening Sunday of the NFL season last September through the NBA and NHL playoffs in June. We’ve taken a little time off for some family vacations to San Francisco and Hawai’i and now we’re back as we get ready for the MLB season to resume after the All-Star Break and then build toward the football season.
I’ll recap more of what I’ve been doing the past month in the original weekly version of this column in Point Spread Weekly on Wednesday, but this column is more about the day-to-day sports betting lifestyle that we all enjoy. Our longtime readers know we are a dog-or-pass bettor but our main goal here is to give an objective overview of the sports betting landscape.
So, let’s recap Sunday’s results as well as an update on the MLB betting stats through the All-Star Break, and then try to find some winning bets on Monday.
Golf: Cameron Smith rallied on Sunday to win The Open Championship at St. Andrews for his 1st career major. The ViewFromVegas is he was 20-1 pre-tournament, 7-1 after Thursday's 1st round, + 175 after Friday second round and 14-1 heading into Sunday's final round when he shot an 8-under 64 to finish 20-under par.
Faves went 7-5 Sunday including the Mariners (-130) beating the Rangers 6-2 for their 14th straight victory heading into the All-Star Break. The Nationals (+ 240) beat Braves 7-3 and the Cubs (+ 129) beat the Mets 3-2 to both snap 9-game losing streaks. Home/road teams split 6-6 on Sunday. Unders went 7-5.
Faves are 816-544 SU (60 percent) heading into the All-Star Break with 23 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so they’re still ahead of the pace but the gap has been narrowing as it was closer to 61-62 percent for a good portion of the early season. Home teams lead just 720-663 (52.1 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 686-631-64 (52.1 percent).
Pete Alonso + 190 to win the Home Run Derby
(+ 200 at DraftKings, our parent company here at VSiN): Yes, I know Alonso is the chalk and I hate chalk, but he is plus-money and the two-time defending champion. The important thing for me in handicapping the event was the announcement last week that former Mets coach Dave Jauss would be his pitcher. If you remember last year, Jauss put every pitcher in the perfect spot over and over like he was setting it on a tee for Alonso. Now, I will admit I have a bias because I knew Jauss’ father, longtime Chicago Tribune sportswriter Bill Jauss. We met when I was working for the student newspaper at Northern Illinois University, The Northern Star, and he would often cover our football and basketball teams. I wouldn’t claim to be a friend or even that Jauss was a mentor, but he did teach me by example and invited me to attend a taping of “Sportswriters on TV,” which has never received the credit it deserved as a pioneering show in the 1980s and 1990s long below the format has been copied and been made so commonplace.
Anyway, we see value on Alonso/Jauss to “three-Pete.”
I’m also taking a flier on the longest shot on the board, Albert Pujols at 26-1 to win the Home Run Derby. As I said on “The Lookahead” last night, I don’t see why he’s being dismissed at such high odds – it’s not like he’s too old. This is basically batting practice and no one’s odds should be twice as high as the next lowest. In addition, I like Pujols + 270 in his first-round matchup vs. Kyle Schwarber.
Good luck today (and every day!).