Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recaps, updated ATS stats, Monday Best Bets 6/27

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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On the 288th day, he rested.

We started this “Tuley’s Takes Today” column on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021, on the morning after the opening Sunday of the NFL season and have posted each morning ever since. Sunday was also the day after returning from our kids’ annual trip to summer camp in California and driving and walking all around San Francisco and Oakland with the adults, so it was spent napping most of the day away.

However, I did have sports on in the background all day with golf and NASCAR and a full MLB schedule, plus Game 6 of the NHL Stanley Cup Final.

Fortunately, I woke up in time to see the Yankees luckily cover the -1.5 run line with a 6-3 win over the Astros (it’s also risky betting the run line with a home team because if the score is tied late you need a multi-run walk-off HR to cover, but we got it! (Note: I should have saved my “Luck will find you” fortune cookie from Chinatown!)

The fortune cookie didn’t help me in the Stanley Cup as I lost my play on the Lightning -105 in Sunday’s 2-1 loss and also lost my future wagers on the Lightning in addition to also losing on the Over 6.

It was still an enjoyable day as I also made my weekly appearance on “The Lookahead” with Greg Peterson, so let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting action and also give out the MLB plays I discussed with Peterson.

Sunday’s recaps

NHL: Avalanche beat Lightning 2-1 Sunday night in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final to clinch the series 4-2. The Avs were short -111 road favorites to close out series and the game stayed Under the closing betting total of 6 goals, though 4 of 10 Vegas books closed at 5.5.

More NHL: Faves finished 4-2 in StanleyCup Final (Avs short road dog in Game 4, Lightning road dog in Game 5) and went 58-31 overall. Home/road split 3-3 in series with home dipping to 54-35 overall. Over/Unders also split 3-3 in series (with Overs in first 3 games and Unders in last 3 games) but Overs ended up leading 46-41-2 (52.9 percent) overall.

MLB: Dodgers rallied to beat Braves 5-3 in 11 innings on Sunday Night Baseball as faves finished barely ahead at 8-7 on the day. Biggest upset was by the Cubs (+ 153 in 6-5 win at Cardinals). Yankees (-174) avoided an upset by rallying to beat Astros 6-3 in 10 innings after being no-hit for 6 1/3 innings (after being no-hit on Saturday) and actually covered on -1.5 run line thanks to Aaron Judge’s walk-off 3-run HR. Home teams went 8-7. Overs 8-5-2.

More MLB: Faves lead 649-426 SU (60.4 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 557-535 (51 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders dipped to 535-499-56 (51.7 percent).

USFL: No games Sunday, and the championship game isn’t until next Sunday, but here’s the USFL betting stats for those interested: favorites/underdogs split 1-1 SU and ATS in the playoff games while Over/Unders were also 1-1. For the season and playoffs combined, faves are 31-11 SU (73.8 percent) but just 20-20-2 ATS (50 percent) while Overs still lead 23-19 (54.8 percent) overall after a 4-8 start.

Monday’s Takes

Marlins + 120 at Cardinals: This should be closer to pick-’em with Pablo Lopez (5-3 with the Marlins 8-6 overall in his starts, 2.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs. Adam Wainwright (5-5, 3.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).

Red Sox + 160 at Blue Jays: These AL East rivals are both more than 10 games behind the Yankees but battling the Rays for the AL wild-card spots. I was close to naming this my Best Bet of the day as I said on “The Lookahead” that I would take the Red Sox, who are rolling on a 7-game winning streak, if this line was only + 120 or 130. My only trepidation is that Connor Seabold is making his season debut for the Red Sox. I made the comment that I’m not too worried as he’ll have a short leash, but that’s also why I’m not betting First 5 and instead trusting the Red Sox lineup over the full game.

Sunday: Stars + 4.5 vs Stallions: The Stallions have been the USFL’s top team all season-long, however, while they’re 5-1 SU in their last 6 games (since beating the Stars 31-17 in Week 5), they’re only 2-4 ATS as teams have been able to keep games close. The Stars are also playing much better since that mid-season loss to the Stallions, also going 5-1 SU since that game but also 4-1-1 ATS as they’ve been exceeding expectations down the stretch. In fact, the push came in a meaningless Week 10 loss to the Generals when they weren’t showing much as the two teams were to meet in the playoffs the following week, which the Stars won 19-14 to set up this meeting. I have this line at Stallions -2.5, so definite value on the Stars + 4.5 (I see Willliam Hill at 4, so probably best to grab the 4.5 ASAP). Slightest lean to the Over 44.5 as I have it at between 45.5 and 47.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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