Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recaps, NCAA title game update, Monday best bets (4/4)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Sunday was the off-day in between the Final Four on Saturday and Monday’s NCAA tournament Championship Game, but it felt like anything but an off-day with so much sports betting action going on, especially when you throw in the NCAA Women’s Championship Game plus golf and NASCAR.

We had to wait until late afternoon for our Best Bet of the day, but it was worth the wait as we cashed with Thunder + 14 vs. the Suns. This was anti-swagger play against the Suns, which had a 9-game winning streak snapped in its previous game, so we expected them to come out flat and not cover the huge number, but we ended up getting an easy cover as the Thunder only trailed by 1 measly point at halftime, and then actually took control in the second half to win 117-96 and also + 800 on the money line.

That improved our record to 34-15-1 ATS (69.4 percent) the past 50 days with my top play of the day.

We also hit our second NBA play of the day as the Pistons + 2.5 pulled a much shorter upset in their 121-117 victory to improve to 17-0-2 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs. The NHL didn’t treat us quite as well as we lost our top First-Period Over play with the Panthers-Sabres 1P Over 1.5 (Sabres led 1-0 after the opening 20 minutes) and the Ducks + 175 vs. the OIlers as we mentioned the play as the Ducks had snapped an 11-game losing streak in their prior game, but these swagger/anti-swagger plays don’t work as well in the NHL for some reason (we prefer the ATS sports of basketball and football, though baseball has treated us well over the years as well).

Anyway, let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting results and then try to keep the good times rolling on Monday.

Sunday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 8-4 SU but split 4-4 ATS with the Cavaliers (+ 5.5 in 112-108 loss vs. the 76ers) and Rockets (+ 13.5 in 139-132 loss vs. the Timberwolves) covering in losses. The 4 upsets were by the Thunder (+ 14 in 117-96 rout vs. the Suns), Mavericks (+ 6.5 in 118-112 win at the Bucks), Pistons (+ 4.5 in 121-117 win at the Pacers) and the Heat (+ 4.5 in the 114-109 win at the Raptors). Over/Unders split 6-6.

NHL: Faves went 5-4 with the upsets by the Flyers (+ 270 in 4-3 OT win at Rangers), Coyotes (+ 175 in 3-2 OT win at Blackhawks), Kraken (+ 140 in 4-1 win vs. Starts) and Wild (+ 115 in 5-1 win at Capitals). Overs 5-3-1 with the push in the Wild-Capitals game with a betting total of 6 goals.

CBB: South Carolina beat UConn 64-49 to win the NCAA Women’s Championship Game, covering easily as a 4.5-point favorite and staying well Under the closing betting total of 125 points..

More CBB: Kansas was still a consensus -4 vs. North Carolina when I was Tweeting out my update at 9:15 p.m. ET with a low of -3.5 at Station Casinos and a high of -4.5 at BetMGM and WynnBET (though the -3.5 disappeared at Stations at 10:24 p.m. PT). As for the Over/Under, it was sitting at a consensus 152 with low of 151.5 at Circa Sports and Stations, while a high of 152.5 at Bet MGM, Wynn and Treasure Island.

Monday’s Takes

North Carolina + 4.5 vs. Kansas: This is mostly available at North Carolina + 4 as mentioned above, so shop for the hook if you can get it. I have this line closer to Kansas -2.5, but see the Tar Heels are more of a team of destiny that can cut down the nets or at least cover. It’s hard to think of college basketball blue-blood North Carolina as a Cinderella story, yet here the Tar Heels are as a No. 8 seed on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll with three of those wins as underdogs over Baylor, UCLA and Duke. We were relieved that UNC double-double machine Armando Bacot wasn’t seriously hurt late vs. Duke and can stand up to Kansas’ big men. In a tournament of underdogs coming through, we hope for one more.

Bruins-Blue Jackets First-Period Over 1.5 (-155 at BetMGM, -165 at DraftKings): For those still looking to play these (and we are playing with house money after our recent successes in addition to our overall Best Bet record), this is the top play on a short Monday card. We don’t have our preferred 1P Over teams of the Panthers, Wild and Devils, but the Blue Jackets have also been good to us as they rank No. 3 in 1P Overs at 47-22 (68.1 percent). If looking for a game to parlay it with, the Maple Leafs are the No. 6 1P Over team and facing the Lightning with a game total of 6.5, so we’ll take that at around 1P Over -155 at BetMGM and -145 at DraftKings for those in their states.

Good luck today (and every day!).

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All


A Numbers Game: Maximize free bets from sportsbooks. Use on ML underdogs.

Follow The Money: NEVER cross the moneyline (0) in teasers. 15 ties since 1990 (8,240 games). That's .18% of games

View tips for Pro subscribers


Wes Reynolds: Colts +6 vs. Chiefs

Matt Youmans: Wisconsin +18 vs Ohio State



Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers