Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recaps, NCAA betting stats through 2nd round, Monday best bets (3/21)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

March 21, 2022 05:06 AM
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Sunday was an exciting end to the four-day run that most people consider “March Madness” as the rest of the NCAA tournament is almost anti-climatic after this opening weekend. We still had a great time here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, though we were met with disappointing results ourselves.

Best bets for every March Madness game

After winning with Colgate as our Best Bet on Friday and Memphis on Saturday, we lost our top play Sunday on Illinois + 4.5 vs. Houston. We had our chances but Houston really impressed me as the Cougars pulled away as we dipped to 25-10-1 ATS (71.4 percent) with our daily Best Bets the past 36 days. My secondary play on Michigan State + vs. Duke was mostly the right side the whole game, so we felt that was a Bad Beat. I wish I had posted my winning pick on Iowa State vs. Wisconsin that cut my personal losses on the day, but I also regretted not landing on Notre Dame, Miami-Fla. and TCU as there were winning underdog plays to be had.

In fact, underdogs ended up going 27-21 ATS (56.3 percent), so I missed a lot of opportunities as I landed on the wrong days throughout the weekend, going 2-2 ATS with my top plays and a woeful 2-5 ATS on secondary plays.

To make matters worse, while I made money over the weekend on NHL First-Period Over plays, I didn’t have any on Sunday to ease my pain (however, I did take some solace in the fact 1P Overs went 1-5 on the day, so I saved money by passing).

Let’s get to the general recaps of Sunday’s betting action and try to get back on the winning track on Monday.

Sunday’s recaps

CBB: Favorites went 33-15 SU in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the NCAA tournament on Thursday through Sunday, but underdogs led 27-21 ATS (56.3 percent), meaning a whopping 12 dogs covered in SU losses (25 percent of the 48 games). Overs held a narrow 25-23 lead.

More CBB: No. 1 seed Arizona (South Regional) escaped with a 85-80 OT win over TCU late Sunday to wrap up NCAA tournament’s 2nd round and complete the #Sweet16, but the Wildcats did NOT cover as 10-point favorites. The game went Over the betting toral of 146 before the end of regulation. Faves went 6-2 SU Sunday but faves/dogs split 4-4 ATS as Notre Dame ( + 8) covered in 59-53 loss to Texas Tech in addition to TCU. Sunday's 2 upsets were by Iowa State (+ 4, + 165 ML in 54-49 win vs. Wisconsin) and Miami-Fla. (+ 6.5, + 255 in 79-61 win vs. Auburn). Unders went 5-3 on the day.

NBA: Faves went 6-3 SU, but dogs led 5-4 ATS. The outright upsets were by the Raptors (+ 8 at 76ers), Spurs (+ 6.5 at Warriors) and Pelicans (+ 5.5 at Hawks). The Kings (+ 8 in 127-124 loss vs. Suns) and Thunder (+ 8 in 90-85 loss at Magic) covered in SU losses. Unders went 7-2.

NHL: Dogs went 4-2 Sunday with the upsets by the Flyers (+ 145 in 2-1 win vs Islanders), Stars (+ 146 in 3-2 win at Capitals), Rangers (+ 195 in 2-0 win at Hurritance) and Sabres (+ 175 in 3-2 win at Canucks). Unders went 4-1-1 with the push in the Sharks’ 4-2 win vs. the Coyotes with a total of 6 goals.

Monday’s Takes

Golden Knights-Wild First-Period Over 1.5 (-150 BetMGM, -165 DraftKings): This is my top play for Monday as the Wild are the NHL’s top 1P Over team at 42-18 (70 percent) while 21-6 in their last 27 games (all NHL betting stats via @PSUOtto on Twitter). The Golden Knights are mostly an Over team as well at 39-25, so the two teams combine to go 71-43 (62.2 percent). I’m playing it straight. If you’re looking for a parlay, the best option is Oilers-Avalanche 1P Over 1.5 -160 as they combine for 67-47 (58.8 percent). 

Parlay Wizards -5/Pistons -7: On my appearance on “The Lookahead” with my VSiN colleague Scott Seidenberg at 1:15 a.m. ET/10:15 p.m. PT (available in the VSiN archives), I said I was passing on Monday’s “swagger play” on the Wizards, who snapped their 6-game losing streak vs. the Lakers on Saturday and thus are a play vs. the Rockets on Monday. I said I was passing since they were favored. However, after also discussing with Seidenberg about the Pistons being on a 13-0-1 ATS run (14-0 ATS if you got them + 4.5 last Sunday vs. the Clippers), I’m going to parlay the two favorites in case they both cover. If one or both loses, at least I just lose 1 unit.

 

Good luck today (and every day!).

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