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Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recaps, NCAA betting stats, Monday best bet (3/28)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Sunday was another long one for yours truly that started in the Tuley’s Takes home office and ended up back in Flagstaff, Ariz.

We put off taking Jordyn back to Northern Arizona University until after watching the two NCAA tournament regional finals. The wait wasn’t worth it as we lost our Best Bet of the day on St. Peter’s + 8.5 fell behind 9-0 and was only inside the spread after a 3-pointer. From there, it was a rout as North Carolina quickly built a 20-lead and coasted from there in a 69-49 victory. That dropped our record to 29-13-1 ATS (69 percent) with our top play of the day the past 43 days. The silver lining is that at least we passed on Miami-Fla. vs. Kansas as we would have lost with either underdog in Sunday’s games

We also lost our top NHL First-Period Over 1.5 play as the Devils only led the Canadiens 1-0 after the opening 20 minutes. We also only split our other suggestion 1P Over plays for an overall losing day.

But, as the legendary Jimmy Vaccaro always says, it’s a tough racket, so we dust ourselves off and get back in the game. Let’s get to the general recaps of Sunday’s betting action across the major team sports and look for more winners on Monday.

Sunday’s recaps

CBB: No. 1 seed Kansas rallied in the 2nd half to rout Miami-Fla. 76-50 to win NCAA tournament Midwest Regional and advance to Final Four. The Jayhawks also ended up easily covering as 5.5-point favorites as the game stayed Under 145 points. In the last game of the Elite Eight, No. 8 North Carolina routed St. Peter's 69-49 to win the East Regional and advance to the Final Four. The Tar Heels easily covered as 8.5-point favorites as the game stayed Under the betting total of 139 points. Unders have gone 11-1 since the start of the Sweet 16 on Thursday.

More NCAA tournament: Faves went 2-0 SU and ATS Sunday and 3-1 SU and ATS in the Elite Eight. Faves lead 39-20 SU overall with 1 game closing pick-'em (Duke-Texas Tech in the Sweet 16), but dogs still lead 33-26 ATS (55.9 percent) with that 1 PK. Unders are now 34-26 (56.7 percent) overall thanks to the 11-1 run.

More NCAA Final Four: Kansas opened between -2.5 and -4 vs. Villanova and it looked like it was settling at Kansas -4, though Circa Sports and BetMGM were up to 4.5 overnight. Over/Unders opened ranging from 132.5 to 133.5); Duke opened from -4 to -4.5 vs. North Carolina and 4.5 was the consensus late Sunday night. O/U opened between 149.5 to 151.5 and looked to be settling at 151 overnight.

NBA: Faves went 5-2 SU, but just 4-3 ATS as the Pistons (+ 5) covered in their 104-102 home loss vs. the Knicks. The 2 outright upsets were by the Wizards (+ 7 in a 123-115 win vs. the Warriors) and Hornets (+ 7 in 119-110 win at the Nets despite Kyrie Irving being able to play). Unders went 5-2.

NHL: Faves went 7-1 Sunday led by the Penguins (-325) routing Red Wings 11-2. The lone upset was by the Wild (+ 120 in 3-2 win vs. the Avalanche). Unders went 4-3-1 with the push in the Maple Leafs' 5-2 win vs. the Panthers in a game that closed with a betting total of 7 goals.

Monday’s Takes

Coyotes-Oilers First-Period Over 1.5 -145: With no NCAA or NIT games on Monday (and no swagger or anti-swagger plays in the NBA), let’s return to the ice for our top play. This is the only Monday game with a game total of 6.5, yet we only need to lay -145 on the Over 1.5 goals at BetMGM. For those in states with access to DraftKings, their line was at -130 overnight. Edmonton has been a solid 1P Over team all season at 41-25 (62.1 percent) while the Coyotes have picked up the pace on offense lately and are 36-29 (55.4 percent).

St. Bonaventure-Xavier Under 140.5: This game is actually Tuesday in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden. As I mentioned on VSiN’s “The Lookahead” with Scott Seidenberg on Sunday night, this total has already been bet down from 142 but I expect more bettors to jump on the Under (even though this is the NIT instead of the NCAA tournament). I also don’t see these teams getting into the 70s against each other with a spot on the title game on the line. I think we just need to avoid overtime.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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