Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recaps, MLB betting stats, Monday best bets 4/11

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Sunday was another long day in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but ultimately worth it.

The day was mostly spent doing errands while having the Masters on in the background as Scottie Scheffler mostly coasted to victory, though Cameron Smith made an early run at him and then Rory McIlroy rallied into contention but came up short.

We won with our lone NHL First-Period Over 1.5 play as the Lightning led the Sabres 2-0 after the first 20 minutes (actually after the first 10 minutes, so that was an easy winner); however, we lost our MLB chalk parlay as both the Phillies lost to the A’s and the Blue Jays lost to the Rangers.

We had to wait around until later for our Best Bet of the day on one of the last NBA games of the season as we posted the Lakers + 7.5 at Nuggets and were actually able to get them at + 10 before they closed + 6. All those looked like losers as the Lakers trailed the Nuggets by 17 at one point, but fortunately they rallied behind their young backup players to force OT and eventually win outright at 146-141.

That improved our Best Bet record to 38-18-1 ATS (67.9 percent) the past 57 days since Super Sunday.

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting action and try to keep the good times rolling on Monday. 


Sunday’s recaps

Masters: Scottie Scheffler won the Masters on Sunday for his 1st major career title. Despite being ranked No. 1 in the world, he was available at 16-1 pre-tournament, 7-1 after Thursday's 1st round, -105 after Friday and -230 heading into Sunday's final round. All four of his PGA career wins have come in the past two months; he was 60-1 last April when Masters futures were first posted.


More Masters: It was a Bad Beat for those who bet Under 277.5 on the winning score as Scheffler four-putted the final hole for his only double-bogey of the tournament and finished with a 10-under 278. Rory McIlroy shot a final-round 64 on Sunday, cashing for those who bet Under 64.5 for the lowest round. The books got beat up with early Tiger props such as him to make the cut, Under 74.5 in first round, etc., but were saved from more payouts as he failed to win, make Top 10, Top 20, etc.


MLB: Underdogs went 8-7 with upsets by the A's (+ 195 at Phillies), Pirates (+ 190 at Cardinals), Rockies (+ 185 vs. Dodgers), Rangers (+ 180 at Blue Jays), Reds (+ 150 at Braves), Nationals (+ 125 vs. Mets), Indians (+ 100 at Royals) and Red Sox (+ 128 at Yankees). Overs went 8-6-1 on Sunday.


More MLB: After going 7-8 on Sunday, faves dipped to 29-20 SU on Opening Weekend. Road teams went 10-5 on Sunday, cutting home teams' lead to 26-23. Despite Overs' 8-6-1 mark on Sunday, Unders (thanks to going 13-1-1 on Saturday) lead 27-19-3 (58.7 percent) overall.


NBA: Faves went 10-4 SU on the final day of the regular season with Raptors-Knicks closing pick-’em, but just 8-5-1 ATS as the Pacers (+ 16.5) covered in their 134-126 loss at the Nets. The Mavericks (-10) beating Spurs 130-120 was the push. The upsets were by the Bulls, Magic, Kings and Lakers. Overs went 11-4.


NHL: Faves went 7-1 with the lone upset by the Capitals (+ 110 in 4-2 home win vs. Bruins). Overs went 4-2-1 with the push also coming in the Capitals' 4-2 win with a betting total of 6 goals.

Monday Takes


Mariners + 115 at Twins: Last year, Seattle pitcher Chris Flaxen was 14-6 and we cashed on him several times as an underdog, so we’ll count on him again (we’re only seeing even-money on the 1st 5 Inning lines available overnight, so we’ll stick with the game side as our Best Bet, though we might also bet 1st 5). Other MLB dogs I’m considering are the Rockies + 115 at the Rangers after taking 2-of-3 vs. the Dodgers, and the Blue Jays if they’re underdogs at the Yankees.


Jets-Canadiens 1P Over 1.5 -145: This is a lukewarm recommendation as both teams are middling squads when it comes to success with 1P Overs (Canadiens rank No. 9 in the league at 57.1 percent and Jets tied for No. 16 at 52.8 percent according to stats by @PSUOtto on Twitter), but it’s the only game of the day and it does have a game total of 6.5 goals, we’ll take it. 


Tuesday: Cavaliers + 8 at Nets: As I mentioned on VSiN’s “The Lookahead Show” with Greg Peterson on Sunday night, this is the NBA play-in tournament game that I like best on Tuesday/Wednesday. Everyone is expecting the Nets to now just “flip the switch” and play great in the playoffs, but we haven’t seen them protect their home court and have let lesser teams stick around, at least as far as the spread is concerned. Give us the points (+ 8.5 at Circa Sports in Vegas as of early Monday morning).


Good luck today (and every day!).


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