Sunday was another exciting day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as underdogs went 7-5 ATS in the NFL.
However, it was a little disappointing because as much as we’ve been riding the dog train the past few weeks, our top plays posted here and in Point Spread Weekly went just 2-3 ATS (winners on Lions and Panthers, but losers on Falcons, Jets and Seahawks) and we went either 2-3 or 3-2 in our contest plays in Circa Sports Million and the SuperContest. In addition, we lost a little on our teaser portfolio in Week 10 as we lost our early teasers using the Ravens on Thursday Night Football and then our preferred teaser plays on Sunday went 2-2 with the Vikings and Eagles coming through while the Browns and Raiders didn’t come close. Going .500 on teaser plays isn’t good enough as you’re laying at least -120 (hopefully you’re not laying more).
Still, it’s been a good run lately, so we’ll keep going what we’re doing in looking for live dogs as we start to handicap NFL Week 11.
Before getting to that in the next few days here and in Point Spread Weekly, let’s do our regular recap of Sunday’s action, including a Contest Corner update on all the news in Circa Survivor as well as Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest.
NFL: Chiefs routed the Raiders 41-14 on Sunday Night Football, covering as 2.5-point road favorites while the game went Over the betting total of 53.5 points. Faves went 7-4-1 SU on Sunday with the tie in the Steelers-Lions game, but dogs led 7-5 ATS. Home teams went 6-5-1 SU on Sunday, but road teams led 8-4 ATS. Unders 7-5. Including the Dolphins’ upset of the Ravens on Thursday Night Football, dogs and road teams are both 8-5 ATS so far in Week 10, while Unders are also 8-5.
More NFL: Faves are now 86-59-1 SU on the season with 3 games closing pick-'em, but dogs lead 84-61-1 ATS (57.9 percent). Road teams dipped to 76-69-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games but improved to 85-60-1 ATS (58.6 percent). Unders lead 81-66-2 (55.1 percent) while primetime Overs are 15-13-1 (but 9-13-1 since 6-0 starting this season).
Even more NFL: In Sunday’s early games, faves went 5-1-1 SU with the Lions and Steelers playing to a 16-16 tie as the Lions covered after closing as 6-point road dogs. The lone early upset was by the Washington Football Team (+ 10, + 375 money line) in a 29-19 win vs. the Buccaneers. Dogs led 4-3 ATS as the Jaguars (+ 10.5 at the Colts) and Saints (+ 3 at the Titans) covered in losses in addition to the Football Team and the Lions. Home teams were 5-1-1 SU but road teams led 4-3 ATS while Unders were also 4-3.. In the “afternoon games” (kickoffs at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. and 1:25 p.m. PT), road teams (all dogs) went 3-1 SU and ATS with the Packers (-3 in 17-0 win vs. the Seahawks) the only home team to win/cover. The upsets were by the Panthers (+ 7 in 34-10 rout at the Cardinals), Vikings (+ 3.5 in 27-20 win at the Chargers) and Eagles (+ 1 in 30-13 win at the Broncos). Unders were 3-1 in the afternoon games.
NBA: Favorites went 5-2 SU and ATS on Sunday with the only upsets by the Hornets (+ 5 in 106-102 win vs. Warriors) and Bulls (+ 3.5 in 100-90 win at the Clippers). Unders went 4-2-1 with the push on Nets-Thunder (216) and improved to 119-78-2 (60.4 percent) on the young season .
CBB: There were just three Top 25 teams in action on Sunday with Florida (1.5-point home dog) upsetting No. 20 Florida State 71-55. No. 23 St. Bonaventure (-20.5) had to rally in its 69-60 win vs. Canisius and did NOT cover. No. 10 Tennessee (-16.5) was the only fave to cover in a 94-62 win vs. East Tennessee State.
Favorites went a perfect 6-0 on Sunday and also 4-2 on the -1.5 puck line. Overs went 5-1 (so that means fave/Over parlays also went 5-1) with the lone Under being in the Flames' 4-0 win at the Senators (Over/Under was 5.5).
Circa Survivor is down to just 174 live entries after the Steelers (248), Ravens (187), Cardinals (40), Buccaneers (31), Chargers (5) and Saints (1) lost in Week 10. Only those using the Colts (65), Cowboys (60), Bills (46), Titans (1) and Packers (1) survived. There is one contestant on the Rams on Monday Night Football. The Steelers were the No .1 choice as the news on Ben Roethlisberger being out after a positive COVID test didn’t come out until after the 3 p.m. PT submission deadline on Saturday. The Steelers and Lions played to a 16-16 tie, but Circa Survivor rules state that contestants must pick a team to win every week and a tie is not a win.
Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 2-2 so far in Week 10 with Rams -4 pending on Monday Night Football. The Packers -3 and Eagles -3 were the winners while the Titans -3 (the No. 1 choice on the week) and Browns + 2.5 were the losers. Note: I used the Eagles as the No. 5 pick even though @CircaSports Tweeted out that No. 5 was the Saints +. Both were chosen by the same number of contestants, but I gave the Eagles the edge as it wasn’t out-picked by its opponents like the Saints were (by the Titans). Regardless, both won so everyone should have the Top 5 as 2-2 this week and 29-20 overall.
SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected is 2-2 so far in Week 10 (25-23-1 on the season) with the Rams -4 pending on Monday Night Football. The Lions + 8.5 and Patriots -1.5 won while the Titans -3 and Falcons + 9.5 were the losers. SuperContestGold Top 5 is 3-2 (27-22-2 on the season due to a few ties for the No.. 5 spots) with wins on Eagles, Saints and Lions but losses on the Falcons and Raiders. There is a pending play on the 49ers + 4 as they tied the Raiders for the No. 5 spot this week.
Tuley’s Takeaways from NFL Week 10
1. Backup QBs have had a moderate amount of success this season when pressed into duty. But we saw Sunday that backup QBs are usually backup for a reason, so you have to be selective when to back them. Sure, they can step up and have a big game every now and then, but what usually happens is that the more opposing defensive coordinators get the time to review gamefilm and learn their tendencies, it’s hard to sustain that success. The Bills certainly had the Jets’ Mike White figured out in their 45-17 rout while the Steelers’ Mason Rudolph looked lost at times in his team’s 16-16 tie vs. the Lions (though the two fumbles by his teammates in OT weren’t his fault. And Arizona’s Colt McCoy was a shadow of what he showed in last week’s upset of the 49ers as he was run over in a 34-10 loss to the Panthers. Speaking of the Panthers, they mixed in Cam Newton with P.J. Walker, so it’ll be interesting to see how that fares moving forward and the first team to try and stop them will be Newton’s former coach Ron Rivera and the Washington Football Team, which somehow contained Tom Brady on Sunday despite losing Chase Young.
2. My good friend, Ed Sehon – you may know him from his “Mr. Ed’s Saratoga on (about) $100 a Day” column from the summer – informed me that Tony Romo made a big deal about home-field advantage being a factor in the Packers’ 17-0 win over the Seahawks. His point didn’t carry much weight when you consider that during that same timeframe, road teams were winning the other three games (Vikings, Panthers and Eagles at the Chargers, Cardinals and Broncos) by an average of 16 points. As we’ve been pointing out for weeks, home-field advantage is negligible at best as road teams are actually above .500 straight-up at 76-69-1 on the season with 3 neutral-site games while they lead 85-60-1 ATS (58.6 percent) on the season after going 8-5 again this week.
3. There’s a system play that’s been going around that says to bet on a team after an ATS if playing a team that covered the previous week. This is similar to a lot of trends/systems over the years where you’re buying low/selling high on teams, so there can be some inherent value as you’ll often be fading the public, which tends to bet based on what they saw last. Apparently it was an impressive 39-14-1 ATS entering the week and went 4-2 in Week 10 (covers by the Cowboys, Saints, Panthers and Eagles after losing ATS last week while facing the Falcons, Titans, Cardinals and Broncos, all of which covered last week. The losing plays were on the Ravens vs. the Dolphins and Raiders vs. the Chiefs. Again, while I see some merit in the system, I still believe you should handicap each game separately and, if deciding to follow the trend, make sure you have other reasons. For those curious, the Week 11 plays would be the Falcons + vs. the Patriots, Browns -9.5. vs. the Lions, Colts + 6.5 at the Bills and Jets + 3 vs, Dolphins.
49ers + 3.5/Under 50.5 parlay: In Point Spread Weekly, I gave a lukewarm pick on the 49ers + 4. I wasn’t confident enough to include it in my five picks on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page (which, as I said above, went just 2-3). So, I’m not going to bet a lot on the 49ers, but instead I’m going to make a smaller play on a parlay with the 49ers and the Under. If the 49ers, who are 0-4 at home this season, are to have any chance to stay in this game and cover this number, they’re going to have to rely on the run with Elijah Mitchell and a short passing game from Jimmy Garoppolo to keep the clock ticking and keep the ball away from the Rams’ potent offense. Hopefully L.A. coach Sean McVay and QB Matthew Stafford are more concerned with getting Odell Beckham Jr. involved instead of just winging it to Cooper Kupp. Again, I’m betting less one what we hope is a correlated parlay with the 49ers playing keepaway to shorten the game and give us a better chance to cover this short number.
Good luck today (and every day!).