Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recaps, Contest Corner, Monday pick (11/1)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 1, 2021 04:29 AM

Sunday was another crazy day of NFL action here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

The books bounced back from three straight losing Sundays to have a big winning day as underdogs actually were above .500 on the day at 7-6 SU, plus 8-4-1 ATS as the public went down in flames on a lot of their favorite plays.

The big upset was the Jets knocking off the Bengals 34-31 in OT as the Bengals came in with the best record in the AFC and were steamed all the way from 3-point favorites on the advance line first posted two Tuesdays ago to -9.5 after routing the Ravens 41-17 and then all the way up to -11.5 by kickoff. The public also jumped all over the Vikings against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football as the Cowboys.

Hopefully our readers fare better than the masses with our dog-or-pass philosophy and overall contrarian view. We didn’t have big winning day, but we came out ahead as our best bets went 2-2 ATS with the two wins (Steelers at Browns and Patriots at Chargers) also pulling outright upsets and we also hit most of our teaser plays as we recommended the Titans + 8.5 with the Cowboys + 8.5 in Friday’s post and went 2-1 with our recommended teasers plays with the Panthers and Steelers winning and only losing with our combinations including the Lions.

My biggest takeaways from the day was that 1) parity is alive and well in the NFL despite the so-called conventional wisdom out there that there's a growing gap between the haves and the have-nots, and 2) maybe we're all guilty to overreacting to QB changes and how many points the line should move from a starting QB to a backup. 

Let’s get to the betting recaps from around the sports world on Sunday and then look for another live dog on Monday Night Football.

Sunday’s recaps

NFL: Cowboys upset the Vikings 20-16 behind Cooper Rush on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys did it after closing as 4.5-point road underdogs and + 180 on the money line after they were 2.5-point favorites before the news started to leak that Dak Prescott might not be able to start. The game stayed Under the betting total of 49.5 points. Vikings (+ 1.5) lost as the most-selected team in both the Circa Sports Million and SuperContest contests in Las Vegas. Underdogs went 7-6 SU on Sunday and were 8-4-1 ATS as the books bounced back from 3 straight losing weeks. Dogs are 8-6 SU and 9-4-1 ATS so far in Week 8, including Thursday Night Football, heading into Monday Night Football. Road teams went 7-5-1 ATS on the day and are 8-5-1 ATS for the week. Overs went 7-6 on the day and are 7-7 on the week heading into MNF.

More NFL: In Sunday’s early games (1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT kickoffs), faves/dogs split 4-4 SU but dogs led 5-2-1 ATS. The push was on the Bills (-15 in 26-11 win vs. MIA) as it landed on the closing line, though early bettors cashed on Buffalo. Upsets were by the Jets (+ 11.5 vs. the Bengals), Panthers (+ 2 at Falcons), Titans (+ 3 at Colts) and Steelers (+ 5 at Browns). The Rams (-16.5) did NOT cover the closing line in 38-22 win at Texans, though just like the Bills, their early backers cashed at lower numbers. Overs were 5-3. In the “afternoon” (kickoffs in 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m.. PT hour), faves/dogs split 2-2 SU and ATS with upsets by the Patriots (+ 4 at Chargers) and Saints (+ 4 vs. Buccaneers). Seahawks (-4 vs. Jaguars) and Broncos (-3.5 vs. Washington Football Team) covered as faves. Over/Unders split 2-2. 

MLB: Astros (-123 road faves) beat the Braves 9-5 on Sunday night to avoid elimination and pull within 3-2 in the World Series. The game went Over 8.5 runs. Faves and home teams both lead 3-2 in this series while Unders dipped to 3-1-1. Overall in the playoffs (not counting wild-card games), home teams lead 22-12, faves are 21-13 and Overs improved to 19-14-1.

NBA: Favorites went 4-1 SU on Sunday with the lone upset by the Hornets (+ 2 in 125-113 win vs. Blazers), but faves were only 3-2 ATS as Rockets (+ 11) rallied late to cover in 95-85 SU loss at the Lakers. Unders went 4-1 Sunday with the lone Over in the Blazers-Hornets game (231).

NHL: Favorites went 4-1 Sunday with the lone upset by the Blue Jackets (+ 115 in 4-3 shootout win at the Devils). Rangers (-118 in 3-1 win at Kraken) won as the lone road fave on the day. Unders went 3-2.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 1,188 live entrants after Halloween massacre, led by 871 being eliminated for using the Bengals in their 34-31 loss to the Jets. Only 454 have already advanced to Week 9 as 734 still need the Chiefs to win SU on Monday Night Football.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 1-4 in Week 8 (dropping to 24-16 on the season) with the top choice, Vikings + 1.5, losing on SNF vs. the Cowboys, along with the Bengals -10.5 at the Jets, Lions + 3.5 vs, the Eagles and Colts -2.5 vs. the Titans. The lone win was the No. 5 choice, Patriots + 5 at the Chargers.

Circa Sports Million leader is still HANNIBAL BARCA at 31-8 (79.5 percent) by half a point over OLD SCHOOLS HUSTLERSA (30-9-1) and that entry can extend its lead with the Chiefs -9.5 on MNF. WOLFGANG leads the Westgate SuperContest at 29-10-1 (74.4 percent).

SuperContest Top 5 went 2-3 in Week 8 (21-18-1 on the season) with top choice, Vikings + 1.5, losing on SNF along with Colts -1 vs. the Titans and Lions + 3.5 vs. the Eagles. Wins were on the Patriots + 6 at the Chargers and Bills -13.5 vs. the Dolphins. SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 3-2 (22-17-2 on the season). 

Monday’s Take

Giants + 10 at Chiefs: Some books dipped to 9.5 late in the week but many returned to 10 earlier this weekend. I advised to take the + 10 and stand by that. As popular of a team as the Chiefs remain, with so many people turning on them, I wasn’t sure this would get to 10.5 but as of late Sunday it’s up to 10.5 at Circa Sports here in Vegas and I see some movement toward 10.5 offshore and in other states. Once again, shop for the best number you can get.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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