Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recaps, Contest Corner, MNF pick (10-4)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 4, 2021 01:00 AM
Derek_Carr

Sunday was another thrilling day of sports betting here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, betting pro football and following the exciting last day of MLB’s regular season.

I was having a pretty profitable day and was a little surprised when I graded the plays I posted in this column and was only 2-4 ATS. I lost with the Falcons, Lions, Vikings and Panthers in the NFL’s early Sunday window (I even had a four-team parlay that went 0-4…ouch!) and rebounded by winning with the Cardinals and Ravens in the afternoon session (we call it “afternoon” because the games kick off at 1:05 or 1:25 p.m. PT here in Vegas).

For some reason, I only posted the six plays I liked best here and didn’t include my other “Best Bets” from my regular “Tuley’s Take” column in Point Spread Weekly. My lesser games went 3-1 ATS with the Jets, Giants and Colts all pulling outright upsets with the lone loser on the Eagles + 7 vs. the Chiefs, so I should have been 5-5 ATS.

And it’s personally been a pretty profitable Week 4 for yours truly as I hit the majority of my two-team, 6-point  teasers that I listed in PSW and in the NFL Best Bets story at VSiN.com with the Bengals -1.5, Falcons + 7.5, Vikings + 8, Chiefs -1 and Ravens + 7.5 (and I even added some Buccaneers -1 along the way). My only teasers that lost were those that included the Titans -1.5 and Saints -1.5.

Let’s go over the general recaps from Sunday, I’ll then give my top “takeaways” from Sunday’s action and a glance at Contest Corner before trying to end NFL Week 4 on a winning note on Monday Night Football.

Sunday’s betting recaps

NFL: Buccaneers held off Patriots 19-17 in the Brady-Belichick Bowl on Sunday Night Football, but the Bucs did NOT cover after closing as popular 7-point road favorites. The game stayed way Under the betting total of 49 points in the rain as prime-time Overs dipped to 8-3 on the season). Faves went 7-6 SU on Sunday with Browns-Vikings closing pick-'em, but underdogs led 7-6 ATS thanks to the Bucs’ non-cover (only winner to not cover on the day). Faves are 8-6 SU so far in Week 4, but dogs lead 8-6 ATS, including the Bengals’ non-cover on Thursday Night Football. Dogs lead 37-24 ATS (60.7 percent) on the season with two pick-’ems. Road teams went 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS on Sunday. Road teams lead 9-6 SU and ATS in Week 4, including TNF, and on season at 33-29 SU w/ 1 neutral-site game (Packers-Saints in Week 1) and 35-27 ATS (56.5 percent). Over/Unders split 7-7 Sunday, but Unders lead 8-7 on the week and 36-27 (57.1 percent) on the season.  

More NFL: Sunday started with faves going 5-3 SU and ATS in the early games with Browns-Vikings closing pick-’em. The three covering dogs all pulled outright upsets: Jets (+ 7 in 27-24 OT win vs. Titans), Colts (+ 2.5 in 27-17 win at Dolphins) and Giants (+ 7 in 27-21 OT win at Saints). Road teams started the day at 5-4 SU and ATS while Overs went 6-3 in the early session. In the “afternoon” games, dogs went 3-1 SU and ATS with the Packers (-6) the only fave to cover. The upsets were by the Cardinals (+ 4 at Rams), Seahawks (+ 2.5 at 49ers) and Ravens (+ 1 at Broncos). Road teams went 3-1 SU and ATS in the afternoon as all four games had home faves. Unders went 3-1 in the afternoon with the Cardinals-Rams game the only Over.

MLB: Red Sox (-210) and Yankees (-130) won on Sunday’s last day of the regular season to clinch the American League’s two wild-card spots. The two rivals will face off in a one-game playoff on Tuesday with the Yankees opening as -115 road favorites with Gerrit Cole vs. Nathan Eovaldi. The Giants (-220) routed the Padres 11-4 to clinch the NL West over the Dodgers, who are -205 home faves vs. the Cardinals in the NL wild-card game on Wednesday with Max Scherzer vs. Adam Wainwright

More MLB: Favorites went 10-5 on Sunday and finished the regular season at 1,403-950 (59.6 percent) with 55 games closing pick-'em. Overs went 7-5-3 on Sunday -- yes, 3 pushes, in Red-Pirates (9), Rockies-Diamondbacks (9) and Twins-Royals (10) games. However, Unders still finished ahead of Overs for the season at 1,154-1,141-107 (50.3 percent).

Contest Corner

It's unofficial but 818Madden20Survivors can win the $171,750 First Quarter prize in Circa Sports Million III if Raiders cover or push + 3 (the contest line) against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. If 818Madden20Survivors loses, it’ll keep them in a five-way tie at 18 points (record of 18-2) with Almost Covered, DeadMoneyMedia(dot)com, Mr. Wiggles and Stoney. Second place is $50,000 with $25,000 for third, so a five-way chop would be worth $49,350 apiece. If 818Madden20Survivors wins the $171,750 outright, the other four would split the other $75,000 for $18,750 apiece.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 2-2 so far in NFL Week 4 (11-8 on season) with Chargers -3 pending on Monday Night Football. Wins were on Seahawks + 3 and Ravens + 1 while losses were on the Buccaneers -6.5, the No. 1 choice, and Vikings + 2.

CircaSurvivor is down to 2,333 live entries with four still needing the Chargers on Monday Night Football to survive Week 4. Sunday's eliminations were on the Saints (409), Titans (151), Dolphins (4) and Vikings (1) after 19 failed to put in a pick this week.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in NFL Week 4, improving to 9-11 on the season, with losses by No. 1 pick Buccaneers -6.5 and Vikings + 2, but wins on Seahawks + 3, Ravens + 1 and Chiefs -7. SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 3-1 (10-9-1 on season) with Raiders + 3.5 pending on Monday Night Football.

Tuley’s Takeaways

1. Going back to my betting results on the week, it again goes to show that to beat the NFL you really have to have a diversified portfolio, and two-team, 6-point teasers continue to be a consistent way to come out ahead even in weeks when we don’t have a winning record ATS. The lines are so tight in the NFL that it makes it hard to beat the books ATS, but we can use the books’ expertise (and tendency for the NFL to play consistently close to the numbers) against them with teasers. On Sunday, six of the 14 games landed within a 6-point teaser, meaning you would have won no matter which side you played – and there’s many weeks when more than half the games are that way. I’m not the first to say or write this – as you’ll hear this discussed often on VSiN.

2. Underdogs continue to be the way to look in the NFL this year as they’re still hitting at 37-24 ATS (60.7 percent) on the season with two pick-’ems. And it’s not just the “good” teams covering as dogs like the Cardinals, Seahawks and Ravens on Sunday afternoon. The Jets, Giants and Colts all won their first games after 0-3 starts. As we saw above, Survivor players trying to fade those teams (and trying to save the Bills for another week down the line) paid the price by being eliminated this week. Parity is alive and well in the NFL and it pays to find those live dogs.

3. And I know a lot of bettors were starting to fade this year’s rookie class of QBs who have all been off to rough starts, but Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars covered on Thursday night in a SU loss to the Bengals, Zach Wilson came through in the Jets’ upset of the Titans, Justin Fields and the Bears beat the Lions and Mac Jones covered in the Patriots’ SU loss to the Buccaneers.

4. Home-field continues to be negligible. In fact, road teams – which we pointed out above are 33-29 SU with 1 neutral-site game (Packers-Saints in Week 1) and 35-27 ATS (56.5 percent) – have not had a losing week yet this season either SU or ATS.

Monday’s Take

Raiders (+ 3.5) at Chargers: We hope daily readers followed our advice and grabbed the + that was available nearly all week. I still believe the Raiders are the right side as Derek Carr and Co. (averaging an NFL-high 471 yards per game) are fully capable of matching the Chargers’ Justin Herbert score for score. And a lot of people have been lauding the Chargers’ defense, but the Raiders actually allow 16 fewer yards per game (355.7 vs. 371.7). For those who haven’t bet this yet, I’d still take the Raiders + 3, but try to find it at even money (and there’s a chance some books might go back to 3.5 if money comes in on the Chargers).

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

 

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