Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recaps, Contest Corner, MNF best bet (11/29)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 29, 2021 06:33 AM
Russell_Wilson

Sunday was a rough day in the Tuley’s Takes home office and for a lot of bettors.

How did you fare with your picks? After the breaks going my way most of the NFL season with underdogs coming through time and again, my dogs went 0-4 ATS with the Titans, Steelers, VIkings and Browns all failing to cover and making me 1-4 ATS for Week 12 with the Raiders the lone winner on Thanksgiving. The Steelers were clearly the wrong side, but the others all had their chances but came up short in their own ways.

As you’ll see from Contest Corner, I wasn’t alone as the consensus plays in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest went 1-4 and 0-5, respectively. The frustrating thing is I usually like to be contrarian with my underdogs plays, but the Steelers, Colts and Vikings ended up on those lists of Top 5 consensus plays as popular public dogs as the books caught up to us for at least one week.

The only thing that kept it from a total disaster for yours truly was the fact I hit my favorite 6-point teaser on the Jets and Colts, plus my other recommended teaser options on the Dolphins and Chargers also came in, so I cashed some small tickets to cut my losses. I hope you’ve been following along all season by adding a teaser portfolio as we’ve been suggesting each week as it’s certainly helped us minimize our losses even on weeks like this.

So, let’s get to the general recaps of Sunday’s action across the sports betting landscape, including Contest Corner, where Circa Survivor is down to just 30 entries still alive for the $6 million jackpot.

Sunday’s recaps

NFL: Ravens beat Browns 16-10 on SNF, covering as 3-point home favorites (and especially earlier numbers of -3.5 and -4.5) on late FG after holding penalty kept them from basically running out the clock). Faves went 6-5 SU and ATS on Sunday, home teams went 8-3 SU and ATS, Overs went 6-5.

More NFL: Including games on Thanksgiving, faves are 8-6 SU so far in Week 12 but only 7-7 ATS. On the season faves are 104-71-1 SU, but dogs lead 99-76-1 (56.6 percent). Home teams lead 8-6 SU and 9-5 ATS for the week, but road teams still lead 91-84-1 SU and 101-74-1 ATS (57.7 percent) on the season. Over/Unders 7-7 on the week, but Unders lead 99-78-2 (55.9 percent).

Even more NFL: In Sunday’s early games, faves went 4-3 SU and ATS w/ upsets by the Jets (+ 2.5 at Texans), Giants (+ 4 vs. Eagles) and Dolphins (+ 1.5 vs. Panthers). Patriots (-7), Bucs (-3), Falcons (-1.5) and Bengals (-3.5) covered as chalk. Home teams also 4-3 SU and ATS while Overs went 4-3. In the “afternoon” games, dogs went 2-1 SU and ATS with upsets by the Broncos (+ 2.5 vs. Chargers) and Packers (+ 2 vs. Rams). 49ers (-4) covered. Home teams went 3-0 SU and ATS in this block of games while Overs went 2-1.

NBA: Faves went 5-0 SU on Sunday, but 4-1 ATS as the Pistons (+ 10.5) covered in 110-106 loss at Lakers. Warriors (-3), Bucks (-2), Grizzlies (-4) and Celtics (-1.5) covered in their wins. Overs went 3-2, but Unders still lead 170-132-3 (56.3 percent) on the season.

NHL: Faves went 4-2 Sunday with the only upsets by the Capitals (+ 135 in 4-2 win at Hurricanes) and Sharks (+ 105 in 2-0 win at Blackhawks). Overs went 4-2.

CBB: There were no upsets of Top 25 teams on Sunday, but No. 4 Kansas (-13.5 in 96-83 win vs. Iona), No. 13 Arkansas (-18.5 in 76-60 win vs. Penn) and No. 21 Seton Hall (-31.5 in 84-70 win vs. Bethune-Cookman) failed to cover in their victories.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 30 live entries with eliminations on Sunday by those using Eagles (6), Panthers (2), Chargers (1) and Texas (1). Twenty-eight of those have advanced to Week 13 so far with the Patriots (12), Bengals (5), 49ers (5), Ravens (4), Dolphins (1) and Falcons (1). Two need the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 1-4 in NFL Week 12, dropping to 33-27 (55 percent) on the season). The lone win was on the Patriots -6.5. Losses were on the Steelers + 4.5 (No. 1 choice), Rams pick-’em, Colts + 3 and Eagles -3.5.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 0-5 in Week 12, dropping to 27-32-1 (45.8 percent) on the season). Losses were on the Steelers + 4 (No. 1 choice), Rams pick-’em, Colts + 3, Chargers -2.5 and Vikings + 3. SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 2-2 (32-29-2 on season) with wins on the Patriots -6.5 and Buccaneers -3, but losses on the Steelers + 4 (No. 1 choice), Rams pick-’em and Browns + 4.

Monday’s Take

Seahawks pick-’em/Under 46.5 parlay: I didn’t have the Seahawks as a best bet in Point Spread Weekly last week (not that that mattered this week, as they can’t fare any worse than the rest of Sunday’s plays), but I still feel they should be favored in this matchup even with Russell Wilson struggling since his return. I still have them as 2-point favorites (as opposed to the pick-’em or + 1 lines out there) over the Football team with a lower score of around 23-21 for a total of 44. Grab Under 47 if you can, though I’m fine with going Under 46.5. This isn’t a big play for me as I try to cut my losses from the weekend, but feel it’s the best way to play the game. An alternative way would be to tease both sides by 6 points to Seahawks + 7/Under 52.5 though might need to use 6.5- or 7-point teasers to get to better numbers and not sure it’s worth the added juice. Your call on that.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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