Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recaps, Contest Corner, best way to bet MNF (12/6)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 6, 2021 04:37 AM
Mac_Jones

Sunday was another roller-coaster of a betting day in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but as has happened many NFL Sundays so far this season, teasers saved the day.

We went 2-3 ATS with our best bets posted here and in Point Spread Weekly as we won with the Lions + 7 and the Steelers + 4 (both of which also pulled outright upsets), but lost with the Falcons, Giants and Broncos.

One of the big betting stories of Week 13 was that the top 5 biggest favorites all won and covered: Buccaneers -11 over the Falcons, Cardinals -8 over the Bears, Colts -10.5 over the Texans, Rams -14 over the Jaguars and Chiefs -8.5 over the Broncos. There was a time when I probably would have bet on all five, but I felt pretty good that I was selective and only bet on the Falcons and Broncos from that group. And the Falcons should have covered (if the Bucs had gotten one more first down on their last drive, they would gone into victory formation – and then the Falcons still had a chance to get back in the back door, but failed on two final plays from the Bucs’ 7-yard line, while the Broncos also had their chances before a muffed punt return and a pick-six spoiled that cover.

But that shows how close we were to a huge day as we swept our teaser plays, with more still pending on Monday Night Football. A lot of books were bailed out on a lot of their teaser liability on Sunday as a lot of bettors used the Vikings teased down to -1 vs. the Lions, but fortunately I saw the Vikings as vulnerable and passed on teasing them.

In PSW, my top two-team, 6-point teaser was the Cardinals -2/Colts -2.5 (both won) and then after the Colts line moved out of teaser territory, I changed my preferred plays here and in the Best Bets story on VSiN.com to the Washington Football Team + 7.5 and the Patriots at either + 8.5 or + 9. 

Before we get back to what to do with the Patriots on MNF (if you didn’t follow along with teasers going into tonight’s game), let’s go through Sunday’s betting results, including an update on Circa Survivor and the consensus plays in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest.

Sunday’s recaps

NFL: Chiefs (closed as 8.5-point home favorites) covered in 22-9 win vs. Broncos on Sunday Night Football and the game stayed way Under the betting total of 46.5. Faves went 7-5 SU and ATS on Sunday. Home and road teams split 6-6 SU and ATS while Unders went 7-5. Including Thursday Night Football, faves are 8-5 SU and ATS so far in Week 13, road teams lead 7-6 SU and ATS while Unders lead 8-5. 

More NFL: On the season, faves are 112-77-1 SU with 3 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs still lead 105-84-1 ATS (55.6 percent). Road teams lead 98-91-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games (Packers-Saints in Week 1, plus 2 London games) and 108-81-1 ATS (57.1 percent). Unders lead 108-83-2 (56.5 percent). 

Even more NFL: Faves went 5-2 SU and ATS in Sunday’s early games with the only upsets by the Lions (+ 7 and + 264 on the money line in 29-27 win vs. Vikings with a TD on the last play of the game for their first victory of the season) and the Chargers (+ 3 in 41-22 win at the Bengals). Road teams also went 5-2 SU and ATS early as several road chalk (which went 4-1 SU and ATS with Vikes the lone loser). Overs went 4-3. In the “afternoon” session, the Steelers (+ 4, + 175 ML) upset the Ravens 20-19 as the Ravens went for a late 2-point conversion and the win but failed. Dogs went 3-1 SU and ATS in the afternoon with the other upsets by the Washington Football Team (+ 2.5 in 17-15 win at the Raiders) and the Seahawks (+ 3 in a 30-23 win vs. the 49ers). The Rams (-13in 37-7 rout of the Jaguars) covered. Home teams went 3-1 SU and ATS in the afternoon while Unders went 3-1.

CFB: Sunday started with the national semifinals of the CFB Playoff being set for Dec. 31; by the end of the first day of wagering, No. 1 Alabama was a 13.5-point favorite vs. No. 4 Cincinnati (Over/Under 58.5) and No. 3 Georgia is a 7.5-point favorite over No. 2 Michigan (O/U 43.5).

CBB: No. 11 Arizona (-13.5) was the only Top 25 team in action on Sunday and covered in a 90-65 win at Oregon State. No. 5 UCLA won via forfeit by Washington due to COVID-19 issues in the Huskies' program.

NBA: Faves/dogs split 2-2 SU on Sunday but dogs led 3-1 ATS as the Cavaliers (+ 5) covered in a 109-108 loss vs. the Jazz. The upsets were by the Hornets (+ 7.5 in 130-127 win at the Hawks) and the Rockets (+ 2.5 in 118-108 win vs. the Pelicans). Overs went 3-1 on Sunday, but Unders still lead 190-159-4 (54.4 percent) on the season.

NHL: Underdogs went 4-2 Sunday, though 2 of them were the smallest of dogs with the Blue Jackets (-105 vs. the Sharks) and the Lightning (-105 at the Flyers). Bigger upsets were by the Kings (+ 175 at Oilers) and Blackhawks (+ 130 at Islanders). Overs went 3-2-1 with the push on Kings-Oilers (6). 

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 23 live entries after 5 were eliminated with the Vikings' 29-27 loss to the Lions on Sunday. Four had the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football to advance along with those on the Eagles (10), Dolphins (3), Bucs (3), Cardinals (2) and Colts (1) earlier in the day.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 2-2 so far in NFL Week 13 (35-29 on the season) with the Bills -2.5 vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football. Wins were by the Dolphins -4 vs. the Giants and Washington + 2.5 at the Raiders. Losses were on the Bengals -3 vs. the Chargers and Broncos + 9.5 at the Chiefs. 

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 3-1 so far in Week 13 (30-33-1 on the season) with Bills -3 vs. the Patriots on Monday Night Football. The wins were on the Dolphins -4, Colts -9 and PIT + 4.5 (the No. 6 choice after No. 5 was the Patriots, the Bills’ opponent. The loss was on the Broncos + 9.5. #SuperContestGold Top 5 is 3-1 (35-30-2 on the season but with Patriots + 3 pending. In both cases, the Bills and Patriots were among the Top 5 Most-Selected. Tuley noted: over the years, when we've had 2 of the Top 5 Most-Selected facing each other, I've taken the result of the team picked more and then used the No. 6 team at No. 5, so that's why I'm grading SuperContest and SuperContest Gold that way this week.

Monday’s Takes

Patriots in teasers, including Patriots + 9/Under 47 on MNF: Again, the hope is you took my earlier advice and are live to the Patriots on Monday Night Football. If not, keep in mind that the forecast calls for temperature in the 20s and a wind chill in the teens along with 20 mph winds. Bad weather doesn’t always mean low-scoring games, but with the wind thrown in, I’m teasing the Patriots up to + 9 and teasing the Under up to 47. If you’re fearful that the inclement conditions can lead to higher scoring, you could tease the Over down to 35 (note: there’s a decent chance the total falls in that 12-point gap, so we’re golden as long as the Pats don’t get blown out. If you want to avoid the weather, Week 14 teaser possibilities include the 49ers teased up to + 7.5 at the Bengals, Ravens + 7 or 7.5 at the Browns, Seahawks down to -1.5 at the Texans and the Rams teased up to + 8.5 or 9 at the Cardinals.

 

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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