Sunday was another exciting day in the Tuley’s Takes home office whether cheering home my own bets or just following all the drama of the PGA Championship.
We lost our “Best Bet” of the day on the Panthers (-110) against the Lightning as the President’s Trophy winners fell behind 3-0 in their NHL 2nd-round series. However, we did win with the Gamblers-Generals Over 39.6 and also added a win on our “lean” on the Gamblers + 7 as they lost on the game’s final play but still covered. In addition, we added another win on the White Sox + 150 in Game 2 of their doubleheader sweep for an overall winning day despite losing our top play.
Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting results and look over our options for Monday.
Justin Thomas beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff to win the PGA Championship. The ViewFromVegas is he was -140 in the playoff after being 16-1 pre-tournament, 7-1 after Thursday's 1st round, 7-2 after Friday and 28-1 longshot after Saturday heading into Sunday's final round.
Warriors (+ 3.5) pulled minor upset in 109-100 win at the Mavericks Sunday night to take 3-0 Western Conference Finals lead. The game stayed Under the betting total of 217 points).
Faves/dogs dipped to 3-3 SU and ATS this round, faves still lead 49-26 SU and 42-33 ATS (56.8 percent) overall. Home teams dipped to 46-29 SU but just 39-36 ATS (52 percent). The Mavericks lost again in the zig-zag role, which dropped to 2-2 ATS this round but still leads 32-29 ATS overall. Overs dipped to 3-2 this round, but Unders lead 45-30 (60 percent) overall.
Home teams swept 3-0 on Sunday. Faves went 2-1 with a minor upset by the Lightning (-105 in 5-1 win vs. Panthers to take 3-0 series lead). Rangers (-115) beat Hurricanes 3-1 to pull within 2-1 in their series while the Oilers (-115) beat Flames 4-1 to take 2-1 lead. Unders swept 3-0.
Faves improved to 7-5 this round and lead 40-23 overall (but 28-35 on -1.5 puck line). Home teams regain lead this round at 7-5 and lead 39-24 overall. The zig-zag went 1-2 today, is 2-2 SU this round and 28-23 overall. Unders 9-3 this round, but Overs still lead 34-27-2 (55.7 percent).
Dogs went 9-7 Sunday, including White Sox's 3-1 and 5-0 sweep at Yankees at + 144 and + 152. The biggest upsets were by the Nationals (+ 220 in 8-2 win at Brewers) and Reds (+ 215 in 3-2 win at Blue Jays). Road teams also 9-7. Unders led 8-7-1 with the push in the Marlins’ 4-3 win vs. the Braves with a betting total of 7 runs.
Faves still lead 363-236 SU (60.6 percent) on the season with 14 games closing pick-’em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 313-300 (51.1 percent, usually closer to 54 percent). Unders 311-270-32 (53.5 percent), down from 60 percent just 27 days ago.
Generals (-7) beat Gamblers 26-25 on a TD on the final play of the game, but did NOT cover. The Breakers (-8) covered in their 26-16 win vs. the Maulers. USFL faves went 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS on Sunday to finish 3-1 and 2-2 ATS in Week 6. Faves are 16-8 SU overall but only 12-11-1 ATS. Overs swept 2-0 on Sunday to finish Week 6 at 4-0 and 9 Overs in a row. Overs are now 15-9 (62.5 percent) overall after Unders started the season 8-4 through the first 3 weeks.
Heat + 6.5 at the Celtics:
After cashing with the Heat in Saturday’s Game 3 (after winning with the Celtics in Game 2 as the zig-zag is 2-0 ATS in this series), the Celtics would be the zig-zag role here but I’m fading it and backing the Heat again. In fact, I gave this out at + in yesterday’s column so I hope followers listened as it’s down to 6.5 at every book now. As I mentioned on “The Lookahead” show on Sunday night (my regular spot at the 15-minute mark if listening to the archive), I haven’t heard official news if Jimmy Butler will play Monday, but the fact the line has ticked down from + 7 is a pretty good indication that he will play.
Nationals + 1.5 + 105 vs. the Dodgers:
The Dodgers are in an anti-swag role after having their 7-game winning streak snapped by the Phillies on Sunday, so we’re fading them here on the run line (we also have a little on the money line at + 185). I also like the Blue Jays + 105 at the Cardinals.
I’m not sure I like either dog on Monday. If I play one it’ll probably be the Blues + 145 vs. the Avalanche, though I’m not confident enough in fading the Avalanche at that short price. I really don’t like the Panthers at + 110 just to avoid a sweep.
Good luck today (and every day!).