Sunday started by posting yesterday’s version of “Tuley’s Takes Today” from my hotel in Flagstaff, Ariz., and then I had to help Jordyn move out of the dorm at NAU and drive the 4 hours back to Las Vegas.
The sporting action started great with the White Sox beating the Red Sox 3-2 in a game that started at 8:30 a.m. Pacific/Mountain Time (and the White Sox closed + 155). The rest of the day didn’t go well in MLB for yours truly (note: the recap below points out that faves went 14-4 on Sunday) as I lost with the Rangers + 2-1 vs. the Yankees (hopefully some followers opted for the Rangers + 1.5 EVEN). I also lost with the Rockies, but the worst beat of the day was the Marlins + 140, leading 2-0 but then losing on a 3-run walkoff homer by the Padres in the bottom of the 9th inning.
The other sports didn’t fare as well as I lost with the Hurricanes + 115 at the Bruins in the NHL and then lost my Best Bet of the day on the Heat + 2.5 at the 76ers. That dropped our record to 50-34-1 ATS (59.5 percent percent) the past 85 days (that’s 12 weeks and a day starting with Super Sunday), the first time we’ve fallen below 60 percent.
Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting results and try to get back on the winning track on Monday.
76ers (-2.5) beat Heat 116-108 and covered Sunday night to even their 2nd-round series at 2-2 as the game went Over 208.5. Earlier, Mavericks (+ 3) upset the Suns 111-101 to also even their series 2-2. That game stayed just Under 214.5). Home teams went 2-0 SU and ATS while Over/Unders split 1-1.
Faves are 11-3 SU this round but only 9-5 ATS, yet they still lead 41-16 SU and 34-23 ATS (59.6 percent) overall/ Home teams are 12-2 SU and ATS this round and lead 36-21 SU but just 30-27 ATS. The zig-zag went 0-2 ATS (Suns and Heat both lost in the role after losing the prior game), dropping to 5-5 ATS in round and 21-24 ATS overall. Unders are 8-6 in the round, 35-22 (61.4 percent) overall.
Faves/dogs split 2-2 on Sunday with the upsets by the Kings (+ 155 in 4-0 win vs. Oilers) and Blues (-105 in 5-2 win vs. Wild). The Bruins (-111 in 5-2 win vs. Hurricanes) and Lightning (-130 in 7-3 win vs. Maple Leafs) both won as chalk and covered -1.5 puck line. Lower-seeded home teams went 4-0 Sunday to even these 4 series at 2-2 while Overs went 3-1.
Faves lead just 15-13 SU so far in playoffs. Home teams improved to 18-10 thanks to lower-seeded teams going 7-1 at home the last 2 nights). The zig-zag (not usually used as much in NHL playoffs) went 3-1 Sunday and improved to 13-7 overall. Overs improved to 18-10 (10-2 the last 2 days).
Faves went 14-4 with upsets by the Guardians (+ 176 in 4-3 vs. Blue Jays), Rangers (+ 168 in 4-2 Game 2 win at Yankees), White Sox (+ 155 in 3-2 win at Red Sox) and Phillies (+ 135 in 3-2 Game 1 win vs. Mets). Home teams went 13-5. Unders went 12-4-2 with pushes in the OAK-MIN (7) and LAD-CHC (8) games.
Faves lead 261-154 SU (62.9 percent) on the season with 8 games closing pick-'em (note: faves usually win closer to 59 percent SU long-term). Home teams (6-9 on Saturday) bounced back at 13-5 Sunday and now lead 221-202. Unders (5-10 Saturday) also rebounded at 12-4-2 Sunday and lead 223-180-20 (55.3 percent) overall.
Breakers (-4.5 to -6.5) scored a late TD (instead of settling for winning FG attempt) to beat the Gamblers 23-16 and also cover to wrap up Week 4. The game also went Over 38.5 points on the winning TD and successful PAT kick. Faves went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in Week 4 while Overs went 3-1. Faves are 11-5 SU and 8-7-1 ATS overall. Unders dipped to 9-7.
Celtics + 1 at Bucks:
Yes, we know home teams are 10-2 SU and ATS this round, but we’re taking the Celtics to even the series after falling down 2-1 to the defending champs. This is a great example of a zig-zag series as the Bucks won Game 1 in Boston, the Celtics responded by winning Game 2 in a rout, and then the Bucks won Game 3. Note: I was leaning toward passing on the Grizzlies + 10 at the Warriors, but Scott Seidenberg reminded me of a few things when I was on with him on “The Lookahead” on Sunday night: the Grizzlies are 20-5 without Ja Morant this season, plus their offensive and defensive efficiency has been better without him in the lineup. I’ll be on both NBA dogs on Monday.
We usually get an upset or two in first-round series, but this year’s start to the playoffs has been wild with the 4 series being played on Sunday all are tied 2-2 as the zig-zag is actually performing better in the NHL this season at 13-7. Except for the Avalanche’s domination of the Predators, we could see the same thing on Monday. The Panthers -175 at the Capitals, Rangers -105 at the Penguins and Flames -155 at the Stars would be the plays (chalk parlay?).
I don’t like any dogs on Monday. There are 2 swagger/anti-swagger plays but both are chalk. The Mariners snapped a 6-game losing streak on Sunday and are a swagger play at -120 vs. the Phillies, who played a doubleheader on Sunday and had to travel cross country for Monday night’s game in Seattle. Meanwhile, the Rays had their 6-game winning streak snapped Sunday in Seattle and are an anti-swagger fade Monday night at the Angels, who are -120.
Good luck today (and every day!).