Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recap, updated betting stats, Monday best bets 5/2

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Sunday was a non-stop day of action with a full MLB card, plus NBA second-round games and even 2 USFL games (we mostly ignored the lone NHL game, but the result is below). I tried to go swimming with the kids for the second straight day, but it was windy and that spoiled those plans, though we were able to grill some steaks before going on “The Lookahead” with Greg Peterson at 7:15 p.m. PT (that’s 15 minutes into the show if you check out the archive HERE.

As for our bets on the day. We have good news and bad news.

The good news is we had a pretty profitable day and we trust anyone following our plays did as well. The bad news is we lost our Best Bet of the day on the White Sox + 100 vs. the Angels to continue our recent slump as we slip to 48-29-1 ATS (62.3 percent) with our top play of the day the past 11 weeks (78 days inclusive since Super Sunday). We went 10 weeks of making really good decisions with our top play of the day, but the past week hasn’t gone as well. It just proves again how hard it is to maintain a high win percentage.

The White Sox fell behind 6-0, but then almost rallied all the way back in the bottom of the 9th inning only to fall just short at 6-5. We also lost a smaller play on the Tigers + 1.5 -105 in a 6-3 loss to the Dodgers.

But then we won our top NBA play of the day with the Bucks + 4.5 as they pulled the outright upset of the Celtics (I even wrote “I almost made this my Best Bet of the day”...D’Oh!) and swept our 2 USFL Unders that we posted here after previously posting in our regular “Tuley’s Takes” column as USFL Unders went 3-1 on the weekend. In that column, I also recommended the Generals pick-’em vs. the Stars, which won after closing at + 2.5.

So, again, we hope everyone had a winning day with some combination of those plays. Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s action and then look for winning plays on Monday as we have 2 more NBA playoff games plus 4 games to start the NHL playoffs and an 8-game MLB card.

Sunday’s recaps

NBA: Warriors beat Grizzlies 117-116 as 2.5-point road favorites in Game 1 of their 2nd-round series, but did NOT cover (game went Over betting total of 223.5 points). Earlier, the Bucks upset the Celtics 101-89 as 5-point road dogs in their series opener (game stayed Under 218). Dogs started the round 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS while Over/Unders split 1-1.

More NBA: Faves still lead 31-14 SU and 25-20 ATS (55.6 percent) overall in the playoffs. Home teams dipped to just 24-21 SU while road teams actually lead 26-19 ATS (57.8 percent). Unders lead 28-17 (62.2 percent) in playoffs -- they’re 34-17 (66.7 percent) if including 6-0 in the play-in tournament.

MLB: Faves went 9-6 on Sunday with upsets by the Cubs (+ 195 at Brewers), Nationals (+ 153 at Giants), Rangers (+ 128 vs. Braves), Orioles (+ 126 vs. Red Sox), Twins (+ 115 at Rays) and Mariners (+ 113 at Marlins, snapping their 7-game win streak). Road teams went 8-7. Overs dominated 12-3.

More MLB: Faves lead 206-122 SU (62.8 percent) on the season with 4 games closing pick-'ems. Home teams still lead 173-159 after road teams actually led 65-63 earlier in season. Unders still lead 180-137-15 (56.8 percent) despite going 3-12 Sunday as Overs have been bouncing back (41-31-1 the last 5 days).

USFL: Generals (+ 2.5) rallied to upset Stars 24-16 Sunday night to wrap up Week 3. The game stayed Under the betting total of 42 points. Earlier, the Panthers (-3.5) easily covered in a 24-0 shutout of the Maulers (game stayed Under 38.5). Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU and ATS on the day while Unders went 2-0. Faves/dogs split 2-2 SU in Week 3, but dogs went 3-1 ATS for their 1st profitable week. Faves still lead 8-4 SU on the young season but now just 6-5-1 ATS. Unders went 3-1 in Week 3 and continue to be the way to bet as they lead 8-4 on the season.

NHL: Jets (-175) rallied to beat Kraken 4-3 in regular-season finale as neither team is heading to the playoffs, which start Monday; game went Over the betting total of 6.5 goals.

Monday’s Takes

Mavericks + 6 at Suns: As we discussed with Peterson on “The Lookahead,” we on the Mavericks in Game 1 of their series against the Suns as we feel this line should be lower after how impressive the Mavs looked with (and without Luka Doncic) in their series win against the Jazz. I don’t feel the same about the 76ers, especially without Joel Embiid.

Diamondbacks + 140 at Marlins: This is an anti-swagger play against the Marlins, who just had their 7-game winning streak snapped. As I again said on “The Lookahead,” we know we’re fading Miami’s Pablo Lopez (4-0, 0.39 ERA, 0.73 WHIP), but we get Zac Gallen (0-0 but D-backs are 2-1 in his starts), 0.60 ERA, 0.67 WHIP). I think I gave out + 130 on the air while saying I hoped we would get + 140 and I’m already seeing some of those early Monday morning, so wait for the best line available).

NHL: I’ll be posting occasional underdog spot plays in the NHL playoffs, but Monday looks pretty chalk though I’ll probably be on the underdog Bruins, Lightning, Blues and Kings at some point in their series). I’ll probably also pass on the Lightning-Maple Leafs First-Period Over 1.5 -160, though that’s the only possible 1P Over play on Monday.

Good luck today (and every day!).



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